Hi all,
Both Goodwood and Galway are now in full swing.
The Group 1 Sussex Sakes (3:35) is the highlight of a seven race card at Goodwood. The undercard also features two Group 3 contests the Oak Tree Stakes (2:25) and the Molecomb Stakes (3:00).
If you aren’t a Racing TV subscriber, you can watch the best of the Goodwood action on a four race ITV programme.
Over at Galway it’s day three of its marathon festival. The highlight of a seven race card is the race the Tote Galway Plate (6:40). Not only is the race the highlight of the Galway Festival but with €159,300 on offer to the winner it’s also the best jumps handicap you will see outside the winter season.
I am beginning today’s preview at Goodwood and as ever today’s selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Goodwood
More rain was expected at Goodwood on Tuesday evening and night. As ever the possible amounts seem to change every six hours and now half as much is forecast as on Tuesday morning. So how much we get is in the lap of the weather gods. I working on the assumption that its going to be soft ground all over.
1:50 – Coral Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
The market looks to have got this right and I think the race is between the first three in the early bird betting.
Amleto seemed to have improved for an off season gelding operation when winning a Chester maiden (soft) 84-days ago. Open to improvement on handicap debut and looks to have a great chance. Will be one of the leading fancies for the Melrose contender if he wins this.
Westerton, a winner at Sandown (good to firm) two starts back improved again when finishing a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 12 at Newmarket from a 9lb higher mark. Doing his best work at the finish. Has form on soft ground so seems ground versatile. He can improve a bit more for the step up to 1m 4f and there are more races to be won with the 3-year-old.
Struth has been in good form since winning at Chester (soft) on his seasonal return. Ran right up to his best when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 7 at Ascot 18 days ago. Will face pressure for the lead but given he handles testing ground, and any further rain won’t inconvenience the colt.
2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
The likelihood of soft ground means Fast Response must be respected. The softer the ground the better for the filly who proved her stamina for 7f when a strong finishing ¾ length 2nd of 10 in a Chester Listed race 18 days ago.
French challenger Sicilian Defense gained a second Listed race success when successful at Longchamp over the distance in May. The 4-year-old has winning form on testing ground and its worth remembering that she was a 2 ½ length 7th of 15 in last season’s French 1,000 Guineas. Stall 15 isn’t ideal over this trip, but she’s got each way claims.
Verdict: Despite her wide draw I’m taking a chance with the French filly Sicilian Defense.
3:00 – Jaeger-Lecoultre Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
Probably the most interesting race on the card. Except for Hackman none of the other seven juveniles have run on soft ground so far.
Kylian heads the betting after his impressive success in a Sandown Listed race 26 days ago. He looked like a high class sprint juvenile prospect last time and if handles soft ground, dam won on it, he looks the one to beat.
Big Evs won the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. It was quick ground at Ascot though and I’m not sure he’ll want really soft ground.
Shagraan left his racecourse debut performance well behind when running out a comfortable winner at Windsor last month. The colt improved again when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 9 in a Newbury Listed race 12 days ago. Windsor success came on good to firm ground but he’s dam won on soft so he could handle and easier surface.
It’s not a race I will be having a bet in but at the prices Shagraan would be a tentative selection.
3:35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Just six were left in the Goodwood feature. Given there’s a million pound in guaranteed prize money it’s a very poor turnout.
Those declared include hot favourite Paddington who drops back in trip after his recent success in the Coral Eclipse (1m 2f) at Sandown. The recent rain won’t inconvenience the 2-year-old who should win.
Nine of the last 15 winners of the Sussex Stakes were 3-year-olds and if you focus on those 7/2 & under that had run in a Group 1 race you would have found 9 winners from 15 runners 60% +6.18, 11 placed.
Paddington’s nearest market rival is Inspiral. The filly was back to close to her best on seasonal return when a neck 2nd of 12 to Triple Time in Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’s a serious rival to the favourite on her day but although she handles good to soft, softer underfoot condition would be a worry.
That leaves Aldaary and French challenger Facteur Cheval to fight it out for the minor money and maybe grab second if Inspiral fails to fire.
Aldaary has got some smart back form on testing ground, albeit below Group 1 level. The 5-year-old hasn’t been at his best on two starts since returning from 14 month absence the ground is soft its worth connections rolling the dice given the prize money on offer.
Facteur Cheval has won five of his 10 career starts with his biggest victory coming in a Group 3 on heavy ground at Saint-Cloud last October. He hasn’t added to his win record on three starts this season but was a head 3rd of 6 to Anmaat in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp in May. He does need to settle better than he did last time to give Paddington a race.
Given the likelihood of soft ground this is Paddington’s to lose. French challenger Facteur Cheval could be the one if you’re playing the forecast or if your really daring a win bet on the French horse.
4:10 – 40th Anniversary Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes – 5f
Flora Of Bermuda should probably have won at Beverley two starts back and did best of those who raced far side group when a 4 ¾ length 6th of 26 in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. If he handles softer ground, then she’s the one to beat.
We know Indispensable handles soft ground as she showed when finishing a neck 3rd of 7 in a Listed race (5f) at Naas 7 days ago. If the quick turnaround doesn’t affect her, she should be bang there.
Harvanna bids for the hat trick after quick ground wins at York & Yarmouth. Has shown plenty of pace to win her races so this track suit should. Yet to race on rain softened ground though and maybe better on quicker ground. Yard won this race in 2021.
Make It Easy is progressing with racing and ran out a good winner at Catterick three weeks ago. We haven’t seen the best of the daughter of Mehmas so she can’t be ruled out. Like most of the field soft ground is an unknown.
4:45 – British European Breeders Fund EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Decoration got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a Windsor maiden last month. She improved again in defeat when a 2nd of 8 on handicap debut back at Windsor 9 days ago. Up 2lb for last time but might be capable of further progress. The daughter of Frankel has yet to race on ground worse than good.
La Isla Mujeres a winner at Kempton in June, improved on handicap debut when running out a 7 length winner at Salisbury 18 days ago. Has been hiked up 11lb for that win but capable of more improvement and relished the soft ground at Salisbury. Trainer Ralph Beckett won this race in 2020 & 2022.
Sirona is more exposed than the other two fillies, but she ran a career best on RPR’s when a length 2nd of 8 at Newmarket 20 days ago. The way she finished her race off last time suggests she’s worth another try over 1m 2f and she’s one to seriously consider.
Queen Regent won at Newcastle on her second start in February. Off for five months but looked much improved when finishing a length 2nd of 10 at Wolverhampton 22 days ago. Turf/handicap debut and looks on a workable mark if as good on the grass.
Verdict: At the prices I’m taking a chance with Sirona but La Isla Mujeres looks the right favourite and might be worth a saver
5:20 – World Pool Handicap (Class 3) – 7f
A tough getting out stakes with 17 declared to meet the starter.
Rhoscolyn won on soft ground over C&D in May 2021 and was only beaten a short neck in Class 2 C&D handicap at last year’s festival. Now 14lb lower than 12 months ago the 5-year-old returned to form when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 8 at Beverley 9 days ago. He’s been a bit of a ‘cliff horse’ for me in the past but today could be his day. Too well handicapped to ignore but at 7/2 I can let him win.
Rhoscolyn’s stablemate Darkness can’t be ruled out either. The 5-year-old returned to winning ways for the first time since 2020 when beating seven rivals at Newmarket 20 days ago. His latest win came over a mile but he’s equally effective over a strongly run 7f. Now 3lb higher but won with a bit in hand last time and isn’t handicapped out of this.
Love De Vega looks well treated on the best of last years form. He was making a belated seasonal reappearance when a solid 4 length 6th of 12 to Final Watch at Newmarket 19 days ago. Frankie Dettori, who won on the colt last year is back in the saddle and a big run is expected.
Richard Hannon has won this race three times since 2018 so you have to respect his two runners Classic & Dark Thirty.
Dark Thirty will appreciate the return to 7f after his excellent 3 ¼ length 3rd of 16 to Quinault in a better race a at Newmarket 20 days ago. Easier ground won’t inconvenience the 3-year-old and should go well. Classic was back to winning ways at Sandown (good) 25 days ago. He’s up just 2lb for his latest success which doesn’t look harsh. A more strongly run race could see the 3-year-old in an even better light. I prefer him to his stablemate but stall 15 might not be ideal.
Verdict: Rhoscolyn is well handicapped and looked back to form last time but 7/2 doesn’t appeal. At the prices I prefer his stablemate Darkness and the Richard Hannon trained 3-year-old Classic.
Galway
6:10 – En Or a three time winner when trained in France looked to need every yard of the 1m 6f when winning at Fairyhouse (good) three weeks ago. No easy task under top weight back on heavy ground but the trainer won this 2013 & 2019 and had form on soft ground when trained in France.
Immelmann had some useful enough form when trained by Simon & Ed Crisford. Plenty of encouragement to be taken from his 4 ¾ length 6th of 16 at the Curragh on first start for Willie Mullins 32 days ago. That was his first start for 21 months, so he’s entitled to come on for the race. The step up to 2m should suit the 5-year-old and he needs ease in the ground.
Crassus was returning from a 20 month absence when a 1 ¼ lengths third of 18 to Tudor City in the Apprentice Derby (1m 4f) at the Curragh 33 days ago. Step up to 2m is an unknown stamina wise but all his career wins have come on testing ground so there should be no problem with underfoot conditions.
6:40 – Tote Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) – 2m 6 ½ f
As competitive a Galway Plate as we have seen in recent years with plenty of high class Graded chasers among the 22 runner line-up. Plenty of the leading fancies including the likes of last years winner Hewick and Enniskerry would prefer better ground.
Likely favourite Kilcruit put in close to Grade 1 chase performance when making all to win a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival two starts back. Jumping out of better ground suited him at Punchestown but he had form on softer ground over hurdles. This has been the plan since Punchestown and although he’s 12lb higher is expected to be bang there.
Stablemate Ciel De Neige has a touch of class. A useful novice chaser two seasons back he failed to win his three starts in a light campaign last season but was in the process of running a big run when unseating his rider two out in the Topham Chase at Aintree. Needs to jump with more fluency but will like the rain softened ground and is on a good mark.
I think a strongly run handicap chase will really suit Visionarian. The 8-year-old won his first two starts over fences last season including a Grade 3 novice chase her 12 months ago. Not disgraced in Graded novice company afterwards and ran Saint Roi to 2 ¼ lengths in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. Had recent spin over hurdles which should have put him spot on fitness wise. Looks on a handy mark for his handicap chase debut if handling the ground.
Lifetime Ambition is a good jumper of a fence although he didn’t win last season, he was fourth in the Grand Sefton at Aintree and runner-up in the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan. Had jumped well before being hampered at Valentines in the Grand National last time. This trip is a bit short of his best, but he will make a bold bid from the front.
Gordon Elliott has won the race three times since 2016 and he saddles seven of the 22 runners. All his seven have claims. Ash Tree Meadow was fourth in last year’s race but would probably prefer better ground. The two of his I like most are Fury Road and The Goffer.
Fury Road, a Grade 1 wining novice chaser, won a Grade 2 at Down Royal on his seasonal return last season and later in the season ran Galopin Des Champs to 8 ¾ lengths when third in the Irish Gold Cup in February. Looks fairly treated back in handicap company on his best efforts and testing ground suits the 9-year-old.
The Goffer improved for going over fences last season winning a beginners chase at Thurles and valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown (2m 5f) at the Dublin Racing Festival. The 6-year-old posted a career best when a 11 length 4th of 23 to Corach Rambler in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Less exposed than most of his rivals and there’s another big pot in him this season.
Verdict: A cracker of a race and the most competitive either side of the Irish Sea. I fancy Visionarian for a handicap chase like this but the ground is a slight worry. Kilcruit is the right favourite but is another who may prefer to jump out of better ground. That leaves the Gordon Elliott pair of Fury Road and The Goffer as my picks.
7:15 – Bet 10 Euros Get 30 Euros Free At Tote.ie Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½ f
Feet Of A Dancer is the least exposed mare in the field and made it 2-4 when winning on handicap hurdle debut (good) at Wexford 42 days ago. Needs to improve to defy a 9lb rise but she’s capable of better. Totally different ground today and drops in distance but she’s worth taking a chance on and her trainer did win this in 2020 with Mrs Milner.
8:20 – Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Handicap Hurdle – 2m 6 ½ f
Tricky concluding race with plenty of the leading fancies probably preferring better ground. I quite liked the claims of 2021 winner Shanwalla but his best form has come on a sounder surface.
The two I like are both capable of more progress.
Something Abouther got off the mark at the seventh attempt over hurdles when winning a Punchestown maiden hurdle 53 days ago. The step up to 2m 6f really suited the mare last time and she looks on a workable mark for her handicap debut. It was good ground when she won last time but her siblings’ best performances came on testing ground so she should be fine on the ground and could improve further for it.
Thornleigh Frank improved to win on handicap debut at Downpatrick last month and took another big step forward when winning at Kilbeggan 12 days ago. The handicapper has had their say by hiking the gelding up 15lb for his latest success. He seemed well suited to soft ground last time and although he steps up half a mile in distance today should stay.
Verdict: I like the claims of both Something Abouther and Thornleigh Frank and if the odds allow, I suggest backing both.
Betting Advice:
Goodwood
1:50 – Struth – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes and Westerton – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes
2:25 – Sicilian Defense – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:45 – Sirona – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:20 – Classic – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Galway
6:40 – Fury Road – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and The Goffer – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
8:20 – Something Abouther – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 and Thornleigh Frank – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Bet365 (bet365 are the only firm to have priced up the race at the time of writing)
Cheers
John