Hi all,
It’s day three of the Goodwood Festival and there’s more racing at the Galway Festival. The feature races of a seven-race card at Goodwood are the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes (3:35) and the Group 2 Unibet Richmond Stakes (2:25).
Over at Galway. It’s more National Hunt action. The highlight of an eight-race card is Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (6:15) with €147,500 on offer to the winner.
I have had a look at the first four races at Goodwood.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 2
1:50 – Unibet “15 To Go” Kincsem Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Aerion Power looked set to win at Doncaster but his jockey misjudged the winning post and had to settle for second. He’s clearly going the right way and is sure to be popular with punters but his best form has so far come on good to firm.
Ralph Beckett saddled a double here on Tuesday and so his Patient Dream must be respected. A winner at Epsom in April. The colt resumed winning ways on soft ground at Windsor last month. He’s been raised 3lb but Ray Dawson has been booked to take off 3lb so that negates the weight rise.
Mr Excellency comes into the race in great form having won his last two at Newmarket & Chepstow. Up 2lb for the last of those wins and but will face competition for the lead here. Trainer Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2013.
Johnston also saddles King Frankel who looked on a decent handicap mark when runner-up in the London Gold Cup and then occupying the same position in 1m 2f Class 2 handicap at Epsom on Derby Day. Ran just as well when a 3 ¾ length 4th of 14 at Royal Ascot. You can draw a line through his run at Newmarket when he played up in the stalls and eventually finished a tailed off last.
Verdict: It wouldn’t be the first time a Mark Johnston horse has bounced back from a poor run so better run from King Frankel wouldn’t be a big shock. Preference though for the Ralph Beckett trained Patient Dream.
1pt win – Patient Dream – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Unibet Richmond Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Asymmetric improved again to run Lusail to head in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket last time. That’s the best form on offer and the son of Showcasing won over C&D on his racecourse debut. The easier surface will likely also suit the colt.
Ebro River was 1 ½ lengths behind Asymmetric at Newmarket. His best form came when winning the Listed National Stakes on soft ground at Sandown. Others have more scope for improvement but he’s 2-2 on soft and the Hugo Palmer yard is in good form.
Perfect Power beat Go Bears Go in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Both his career wins have come on good to firm so an easier surface is an unknown. The step up to 6f should suit and if he handles the ground sure to be in the mix.
Clive Cox has won the last two renewals of the race. He saddles Caturra who won the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury 13-days ago. Highly regarded by the trainer and a definite contender but not sure he wants soft ground.
3:00 – John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
Wordsworth came from out of the pack to run Hurricane Lane to six lengths in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp. Prior to that he been running well finishing third in the Irish Derby and runner-up in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.
Stablemate Sir Lucan beat Wordsworth a neck in a Listed race at Navan when last seen in action 75-days ago. His Navan success came over 1m 5f and he looked a St Leger type that day. Surely capable of the improvement needed to go close here and Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride.
Third Realm beat Adayar in the Lingfield Derby Trial in May but was 11 ½ lengths behind that one in the Epsom Derby. He’s better than he was able to sure at Epsom and the soft ground suited him at Lingfield.
Youth Spirit impressed when winning the Chester Vase on soft ground in May. Before fading tamely into 8th in the Epsom Derby. Not raced since so maybe something was amiss and better run could be forthcoming here.
Ottoman Emperor comes into the race having won his last three starts. Steps up to 1m 4f for the first time and on the evidence of his previous runs he seems likely to improve for the new trip. First start on going worse than good but on pedigree should be fine on an easy surface. Need to improve again to win but he could well be capable of it.
Verdict: One of the trickiest races on the card, que an easy winner. At the prices I’m happy to take a chance on Sir Lucan.
1pt win – Sir Lucan – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Just the six fillies and mares are set to go to post for today’s feature race. However, you can make a case for four of them.
3:35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Audarya was in great from in the second half of last season a Group 1 at Deauville last August. Before running Tarnawa to length in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp and ending the season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland. Looked as good as ever when running Love to ¾ length in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot on her seasonal return. The one beat, if at her best
Lady Bowthorpe has returned to action in great form, winning a Group 2 at Newmarket on her seasonal reappearance. Before running Palace Pier to 1 ½ lengths in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. An unlucky, 1 length 4th of 13 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes last time. Has the ability to win a Group 1 against her own sex and will be suited by the likely easier ground. First start over 1m 2f but on pedigree she should stay.
The Aidan O’Brien pair look the pick of the classic generation. Joan Of Arc improved to run Empress Josephine to a short head in a heavy ground Irish 1,000 Guineas. She maintained that improvement when going onto win the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) last time. Needs to progress again but she’s going the right way. Empress Josephine ran well below her Irish 1,000 Guineas form when only 8th of 11 in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Better than that form and at the Curragh she shaped like a step up to 1m 2f would bring out further improvement.
Verdict: Looking at the pace map. There isn’t any. This should play into the hands of the O’Brien pair rather than the likely held up Lady Bowthorpe.
Galway
6:15 – Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade A) – 2m
Provided the ground doesn’t soften too much before post time I give Hannon a bigger chance than his odds suggest. The 6-year-old a good ground winner at Gowran Park last October put in a great effort when running Jessie Evans to ½ length at Killarney, the pair pulling nicely clear of the rest, last time. He get’s 4lb from the progressive winner and has good chance of reversing placing with that one today.
Winner Takes Itall a useful flat handicapper last season left behind his previous hurdle form when winning at Bellewstown 26-days ago. The handicapper has put him up 13lb for that success but the 6-year-old is on an upward curve and should go close.
Last season comfortable Irish Cesarewitch winner Cape Gentlemen showed he can also be very useful over hurdles when winning the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton in February. Didn’t find as much as expected on his handicap hurdle at Punchestown but it’s early days over hurdles for the 5-year-old. Sent off the well backed 5/2 favourite when 5th of 19 back on the level in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Kevin Brogan takes off a handy 5lb.
It really clicked for Belfast Banter over hurdles at the end of last season winning the County Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival. And then going to land to win a Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Aintree. He’s up 6lb for that win but a big field strongly run handicap really suits the 6-year-old.
Zoffanien ran below market expectations on the flat here on Monday, never really getting involved from his wide draw. He was in good form when last seen over hurdles winning a Ballinrobe handicap before finishing 4th in the Grade 1 four-year-old hurdle at Punchestown. Not easy for a 4-year-old though as that age group are 0-15, 3 placed since 2008.
Call My Lyreen a Grade 2 hurdle winner at Naas back in November, bounced back from two low key performances in graded company to finish a short head 2nd of 24 on his handicap hurdle debut at the Punchestown Festival. He was finishing his race of strongly that day suggesting he can be competitive here off just 5lb higher.
Ciel De Neige put in a career best effort when a ½ length 2nd of 24 in a 2m 4f handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. Up 4lb, Interestingly the cheekpieces he’s worn on his last two starts are replaced by the blinkers for this drop back in distance. Has run well in valuable big field handicap hurdles in the past without winning but could get in to the money again.
Tudor City won this in 2019 off today’s mark and wasn’t disgraced off 8lb higher when 7th in last year’s race which wasn’t really run to suit. Not disgraced on the flat when 3rd of 19 two starts back. He can never be ruled out around if the cards fall right.
Sole Pretender was 4 ½ lengths back in fifth in the 2019 renewal. The 7-year-old has returned from a 20-month absence in the form of his career winning at Cork and putting in a career best on RPR’s when winning the Grade 3 Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary 28-days ago. Hasn’t been put up in the weights for that win and connections claim 7lb off him.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance in a typically competitive renewal of the Galway Hurdle. I have made some sort of case for half of the field: Call My Lyreen must be contender. Ciel De Neige is interesting in the first-time blinkers and could provide trainer Willie Mullins with a Galway Plate/Hurdle Double. Don’t rule out a big run from 2019 winner Tudor City. Winner Takes Itall is solid at the top of the market and Hannon looks overpriced.
1pt win – Winner Takes Itall – 8/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Hannon – 40/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/5 0dds)
1pt win – Ciel De Niege – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
6:45 – Arthur Guinness Handicap Hurdle – 2m
Effectively a Galway Hurdle consolation race. Karawaan, the 2019 Irish Lincoln winner on the flat, is 0-6 over hurdles but put in a career best when a respectable 2nd of 13 at Tipperary 28-days ago. On a workable handicap mark and gets the addition of the first-time blinkers.
Punters Poet put in an improved effort when winning a soft ground handicap hurdle at Roscommon under today’s jockey Paul Townend. Up 8lb here but seems to be going the right way and shouldn’t be far away.
Clonbury Bridge has been knocking on the door in handicap hurdles on his last two starts. Get’s the first time cheekpieces and if the headgear can eke out the required improvement, he’s on a competitive mark although he might need a good stamina test dropped back to 2m.
Good World a heavy ground winnerat Wexford two starts backran even better when beaten a short head 2nd of 21 at Punchestown last time. He’s been raised 5lb for that performance but looks progressive. Second reserve and the 6-year-old is a contender if he gets into the race.
1pt win – Punters Poet – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Karawaan – 11/2 @ Bet365
7:45 – Guinness 0.0% Handicap Hurdle – 3m
Blackstair Rocco landed a big gamble when winning at Down Royal two starts back. The handicapper hiked him up a massive 22lb for that win but that didn’t stop the 6-year-old from improving again to finish a 2-length 2nd of 14 at Tipperary 28-days ago. Up a further 7lb but Mike O’Connor who rode him to win a Down Royal takes off 7lb. Likely hard to beat if he stays 3m.
Quaker Island seems to be going the right way and won at the fourth attempt over hurdles at Wexford last time. Stays 3m and could progress further for the step into handicap company for the first time.
1pt win – Quaker Island – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John