Good morning all,
A tricky day punting wise on Tuesday so it was nice to get away with a small profit on the day. It could have been better. I was close to putting up Migration as a 2pt selection and I almost put Kinross in alongside Happy Power in the Lennox Stakes. I was concerned about his wide draw but the non-runners meant it wasn’t as much of an issue as it could have been. Besides Migration most of the profit came from successful each-way bets on Happy Power & Sunday Sovereign.
The dry spell of summer weather has ended in spectacular fashion. There were going changes at both Goodwood and Galway on Tuesday morning after heavy showers hit both tracks.
Goodwood changed its going description to heavy, soft in places. With a further 16mm of rain falling on the track on Tuesday morning. In addition to the 33mm that fell over the weekend.
Across the Irish Sea at Galway. It was a similar picture. The going description on the flat track was changed to soft and the jumps course to good to yielding after 15mm of rain fell overnight.
The going change at Goodwood is significant. It led to a fair number of non-runners on Tuesday, and we’ll likely see more on Wednesday.
The highlight of day 2 of Qatar Goodwood Festival is of course the Group 1 Qatar Sussex Stakes (3:35). English 2,000 Guineas & St James Palace Stakes Winner Poetic Flare heads the ante post betting. However, the change to more testing conditions may not suit the 3-year-old who looked so impressive on fast ground at Royal Ascot.
After two day’s flat action at Galway there’s a change of code today. The National Hunt horses are centre stage with the feature race of an eight-race card being the Tote Galway Plate (6:15).
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 2
The action gets underway 1:50 and you can watch the first five races from Goodwood on ITV.
1:50 – Unibet “15 To Go” Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Siskany and Nagano finished 4th & 6th in the King George V Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot last time. Both had troubled passages, in particular Nagano who has only had four career starts and is open to more improvement on just his second start in handicap company.
Kolisi handled soft ground well enough at Nottingham two starts back. Before running out a convincing winner of a Salisbury maiden (good to soft) last month. Handicap debut and he needs to progress again to defy an opening mark of 87. However, the step up to 1m 4f should bring out more improvement in the gelding.
One of the more exposed runners in the field is the Roger Charlton trained Pleasant Man. A winner on soft ground at Haydock last season. He seemed to have improved for the gelding operation when comfortably winning on his handicap debut at Salisbury (good to soft) two starts back. Wasn’t well placed in a steadily run race at Ascot last time but ran on at the finish to take 4th.
Three places and a length behind Pleasant Man at Ascot was Irish Legend. Third of 14 in 1m 2f handicap at Royal Ascot (soft) on his previous start. He was another not suited by the way the race was run and could bounce back on softer ground.
Verdict: Pleasant Man will be suited by the soft ground. Both Nagano and Kolisi are open to further improvement and at the prices I just prefer the claims of the latter.
1pt win – Kolisi -13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
1pt win – Pleasant Man – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Betfair Sportsbook
2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 7f
Valeria Messalina was beaten a short head by One Master in the race last season and has likely been trained for the race again. A reproduction of that performance would likely be good enough to see her go one place better today. However, the ground will be totally different to 12 months ago and her best form has come on a sounder surface.
Isabella Giles won the Group 3 Prestige Stakes over C&D on testing last season before going on to win the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. The 3-year-old hasn’t really improved one her smart juvenile form but was a ¾ length 3rd of 7 at Lingfield (soft) in Group 3 in May.
One place and a short head in front of Isabella Giles at Lingfield was Bounce The Blues. She didn’t get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong that day and could have easily have won if she had. Effective on soft ground I can see the 4-year-old going well here.
Vadream ran well when a 2-length 3rd of 18 in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot (soft). Before finishing runner-up in a Group 3 at York last time. The drop back to 6f didn’t bring out more improvement at York and a return to 7f should suit the lightly raced 3-year-old.
3:00 – Markel Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
Like most of the 2-year-old races at the meeting I haven’t really looked at this race in any detail. Tn testing ground will ask a few new questions of plenty of the 11 juveniles. I was impressed with Fearby who easily won a Listed race at Sandown (good to soft) 26-days ago. That’s the best form on offer and if he handles the track and stall 4 isn’t an inconvenience, he should win this.
3:35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Poetic Flare was so impressive when winning at Royal Ascot last time. However, the ground will be totally different today. That said the colt did finish a short head runner-up in the Irish 2,000 Guineas on soft to heavy two starts back.
Snow Lantern comes here instead of going for the Nassau Stakes over 1m 2f. The filly seemed to handle testing ground well enough when runner-up to Alcohol Free in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She settled much better and had Alcohol Free back in third when winning the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket last time.
Alcohol Free got the run of the race at Newmarket and Snow Lantern is arguably open to more improvement but back on testing ground you couldn’t rule out her out. Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2017 with Here Comes When.
The sponsors have the Andre Fabre trained mare Duhail running for them. The ground should be fine for the 5-year-old who has each way claims. Not sure her French form is Group 1 level though. Still, she must be respected given her powerful connections.
Century Dream goes very well on testing ground and he did win the Group 2 Celebration Stakes over C&D last August. Not totally discounted given the going. However, the 7-year-old does look a Group 2 rather than a genuine Group 1 horse.
5:20 – Magical Wish finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago, off 4lb higher and then was beaten just a head over C&D (soft) latter in the month. Nicely handicapped if reproducing last season’s best C&D form.
1pt each way – Magical Wish – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Galway
6:15 – Tote Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade A) – 2m 6 ½ f
Royal Rendezvous was a ¾ length 2nd of 21 in last season’s Galway Plate. Races off 7lb higher this time around but he’s only had six starts over fences and this has likely been the plan. Stablemate Koshari is a very useful handicap hurdler, rated 10lb higher over the smaller obstacles. Lightly raced in recent seasons this will be the 9-year-old’s first run over fences since finishing down the field in this race 4-years-ago.
The Shunter was one of the stories of the last jumps season. Winning valuable pots over hurdles and fences, including the Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off 12lb lower. The 8-year-old may well have won a Grade 1 Novices Chase at Aintree, if he had jumped the final three fences with more fluency. Simon Torrens takes off a handy 3lb
Mitchouka needed every yard of the 2m 5½f when winning a handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival in March. Up 8lb for his last win but today’s extra furlong is a positive on that Leopardstown run. First run for 129-days but he’s won off a lay off in the past and has each way claims.
Previous C&D winner Battleoverdoyen has a touch of class. He didn’t really build on his Grade 2 win at Down Royal last autumn and disappointed on his next three starts in Graded company. Step back in the right direction when third on his first venture into handicap company over an inadequate 2m at Punchestown in May. A solid jumper of a fence, he’s 2-2 over the distance, and has gone well after a break in the past.
Verdict: A typically competitive renewal of the Plate. Royal Rendezvous and The Shunter have obvious claims. For those looking for a swing at one at bigger odds both Battleoverdoyen & Mitchouka can be considered. Especially with some firms going 6 places.
1pt win – Royal Rendezvous – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Battleoverdoyen – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Mitchouka – 25/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
6:45 – Guiri improved for the return to 2m 4f and the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when winning a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival 91-days ago. That success came off a 123-day lay off so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. He’s been raised 10lb for that win which means he needs to improve again but he looked a head of his mark last time. Good chance of the follow up if the ground doesn’t ease too much.
1pt win – Guiri – 7/1 @ Bet365
7:15 – Tiger Voice won abeginners’ chase over C&D (soft) last September. The 6-year-old returned to winning ways when winning a 2m handicap chase at Punchestown 60-days ago. He’s been raised 6lb for that success but has only had the six starts over the larger obstacles so could be capable of more progress.
Scheu Time was 3-lengths behind Tiger Voice in that beginners’ chase, before making a winning handicap chase debut over C&D. The 8-year-old returned from a 151-day break with a promising effort over hurdles when 4th of 11 at Killarney 13-days ago. Should strip fitter today and given his course form has each way claims.
Grange Walk has had just the two starts over the larger obstacles but showed he was useful chaser in the making when winning a Limerick beginners chase over today’s distance 18-days ago. His jumping will be tested against some experienced chasers but it’s likely a mark of 116 is more than workable. First reserve but would be of interest should he get into the race.
1pt each way – Scheu Time – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Tiger Voice – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John