Hi all,
Not bad day, all in all. Acklam Express won at Goodwood. Hearts Are Trumps (50/1) ran a cracker to finish runner-up in the Galway Hurdle and Mt Leinster just missed out on the places in the same race. The Rubinator also got into the places at Galway at a big advised price.
Goodwood
Battaash (3:15) and Khaloosy (2:15) are the headline acts at Goodwood today and are odds on to win their respective races. I haven’t looked at either race for obvious reasons but I have looked at four of the eight races on the Goodwood card.
1:10 – TDN Australia Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 3f
Al Qaqaa is the short priced favourite to land this 3-year-old handicap. An easy winner of a 1m 4f Newmarket novice race last time. The son of War Front is improving with racing and should progress for moving into handicap company for the first time.
Mafia Power is another who’s improved with each of his four career starts. Made a winning handicap debut at Haydock (good to soft). The handicapper has raised him 11lb for that success. Step up a furlong in trip but every chance he will stay and trainer Richard Hannon is among the winners at the meeting.
Cepheus is steadily improving with racing. A promising 6th of 14 on his handicap/seasonal debut at Royal Ascot. He built on that promise when runner-up at Kempton 16-days ago. Has been raised 3lb for that effort but he’s capable of more improvement and has solid claims here.
Verdict: Cepheus is going the right way and looks the value pick.
1pt win – Cepheus – 6/1 @ Bet365
1:45 – Saint Clair Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 7f
One Master is the class act of the race. Twice a winner of the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at Longchamp. This is her distance but she’s better with plenty of juice in the ground. Maybe her class will get her through.
Breathtaking Look made all to win a Group 3 at Doncaster last September. Runner-up in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes on her seasonal reappearance. She was outclassed in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee and bounced back to form when runner-up in a Group 3 at York last time. Suited by quick ground although stall 9 could have been better for a front runner and she will have competition for the lead here.
Invitational ran better than her final finishing position suggests in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes last time. She set a very strong gallop that day and only faded out of it a furlong out. The drop back to 7f will suit and she has place claims.
The lightly raced Althiqa is improving with racing and last time out was successful in a Listed race at Deauville. Needs to continue find more improvement but that’s entirely possible given she’s just a 3-year-old.
French raider Wasmya has each way claims. She made a good return to action at Longchamp in May but was below form over a mile in the Duke Of Cambridge at Ascot last time. Back to 7f suits and she could get a good pace to chase here.
Frankie Dettori rode Wasmya at Ascot but he’s on the Jessica Harrington trained Valeria Messalina today.The 3-year-oldwas down the field on her seasonal return in the Irish 1000 Guineas but left that run behind when winning a Group 3 at Cork 19-days ago. Has a 3lb penalty for that win but there was plenty to like about how much you found for pressure at Cork and she’s going the right way.
Verdict: The French have a decent record in this race and Wasmya has each way claims. Valeria Messalina is going the right way but her wide draw is off putting. One Master is the class horse here but the quick ground brings others into contention. Althiqa could find the bit of improvement needed to win in Group 3 company and must be respected.
0.5pts each way – Wasmya – 20/1 @ William Hill (playing 4 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Althiqa – 7/1 @ Bet365
2:45 – Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
The big betting race of the day and one of the biggest of the five days.
The David O’Meara trained Prompting is a short price in his bid for the hat trick. A winner at Ayr two starts back he followed up with an impressive win at York just 6-days ago. Only has a 3lb penalty to carry for that win and could improve for the return to a mile. A handy low draw and if the quick turn round doesn’t inconvenience is a big player.
O’Meara also saddles Baltic Baron. The 5-year-old caught the eye when 5th of 23 in the Royal Hunt Cup before not getting involved when stepped up to 1m 2 ½ f in the John Smiths Cup at York last time. Finished 5th in this race last year, beaten 3 ½ lengths but would have finished closer but didn’t get a clear run when making his effort a furlong out. Now 3lb lower and can land one of these when all the cards fall right.
Montatham was an excellent second in the Hunt Cup and followed up with a win at Sandown 26-days ago. Raised 4lb for his last win but he’s going the right way and the 4-year-old may not have reached his class ceiling yet.
Vale Of Kent normally runs his race in these big field handicaps. Last years Bunbury Cup winner was runner-up in this, 12 months ago, from an unfavorable high draw. A decent 4th in the Hunt Cup and although he’s been slightly below form on his last two starts, he’s the sort to bounce back and has handy draw in three for a prominent runner.
Vale Of Kent’s stablemate Cardsharp has dropped back to an attractive handicap as he showed when 3rd of 19 behind Blue Mist in the International Stakes at Ascot last Saturday. Can’t be ruled out off his present mark although he’s yet to show his best over a mile.
Willie John is an intriguing runner from the Roger Varian stable. The 5-year-old has only had the eight career starts and has been gelded since a poor run on his seasonal return in the Hunt Cup. Career best effort came here last year when runner-up to Elarqam in a Listed race over 1m 2f. Unexposed over a mile and the quicker ground suits. Granted risks attached regarding his well-being but a big run wouldn’t surprise me.
Verdict: Cardsharp has dropped to a tempting mark but maybe better over 7f. Stablemate Vale Of Kent was runner-up in this 12 months ago and can bounce back from a couple of underwhelming efforts last time. Prompting is going the right way and has solid claims of the hat trick. Stalemate Baltic Baron would have finished closer in this 12 months ago if he had got a clearer passage and has each-way claims. Montatham remains on the upgrade and makes of plenty of appeal after his recent Sandown win.
1pt win – Montatham – 13/2 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – Baltic Baron – 25/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
4:20 – Unibet Instant Roulette Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Zamaani has improved with each of his three starts and last time out bagged the rail and ran out a comfortable winner of a Windsor novice 18-days ago. Top-weight for his nursery debut but has the potential to being a lot better than his initial mark.
Julie Johnson a winner of her second career start at Chelmsford gained a second win for Mark Johnston when landing a York nursery last Saturday. Typical tough Mark Johnston horse who can be hard to pass as she showed last time. A 6lb penalty to carry for her York win but remains a contender given her present form.
Peretto overcame a slow start to beat two rivals over C&D back in June. The runner-up that day has gone onto win so the form looks reliable. He makes his handicap debut off a workable mark of 78 and has decent chance of giving trainer Marcus Tregoning a third win at the meeting.
Thank You Next did well to win from high drawat Kempton last time. Handicap debut for the daughter of No Nay Never who has potential for more improvement for the inform Richard Hannon yard.
Verdict: Top-weight Zamaani will be a tough nut to crack. However, both Peretto & Thank You Next are capable of better now going handicapping for the first time.
1pt win – Peretto – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Bet365
1pt win – Thank You Next – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Galway
I have looked at two of the Galway handicaps.
6:15 – Guinness Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 7f
Willie Mullins has won this race four times since 2013 and he’s mob handed again this year with seven of the twenty runners.
Canardier is the shortest priced of his runners and is the choice of Paul Townend. The 8-year-old made a cracking debut for the trainer when still in contention for the places when falling at the last in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. Shapes like he will stay this far although any further softening in the ground would be slight concern.
The recent rain has helped the cause of Sayo who won a beginner’s chase here last October. The 6-year-old shaped with promise on the flat when runner-up in the Apprentice Derby at the Curragh last month and should be spot fitness wise for this assignment.
Both Great White Shark & My Sister Sarah have already run here this week. Great White Shark was third in this race last year off 4lb lower and has since gone onto occupy that same position in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. Was caught out wide in the when 7th of 20 in the amateur rider’s handicap on Monday. My Sister Sarah has won three of her ten starts over hurdles. She was still in contention for the places when brought down at the last in the Martin Pipe. Was doing her best work at the finish when 5th of 16 in maiden on the flat on Monday. Remains unexposed beyond 2m 4 ½ f, just two runs and winning a 3m handicap hurdle at last year’s Punchestown Festival.
The inform Pilbara was 2nd of 14 over hurdles here on Wednesday. He’s now 9lb higher and on softer ground but given his present form still can’t be ruled out.
Another inform contender is Flooring Porter who put in a career best effort when beating 12 rivals over an extended three miles at Gowran Park 11-days ago. Up 8lb for that win, but Conor McNamara takes off a handy 5lb. This is a stronger race but if he gets a good gallop to chase must be a contender.
Sweet Home Chicago might be an 11-year-old but he put in a career best effort when winning at Roscommon last month. He’s been hiked up for that success and may prefer a sounder surface but not dismissed lightly given present well-being.
Trainer Ronan McNally had a winner here yesterday and is 3 winners from 5 runners +9.13 in the past 14-days. He saddles The Jam Man who was well placed to win four times over hurdles/fences between June & December last year. Put in a career best effort when 2nd of 28 in a 3m Leopardstown handicap hurdle in February. Struggled when down the field in the Grade 1 Stayer Hurdle at Cheltenham but remains competitively weighted back into handicaps. Down the field on three starts on the flat but better can be expected today.
Verdict: The likes of Pilbara, Flooring Porter & Sweet Home Chicago are in great form and need respecting. Of those three I just prefer the claims of Flooring Porter. The Jam Man looks competitive on his bet efforts of last season and has place claims. Of the Mullins horses My Sister Sarah & Great White Shark appeal after good efforts on the flat earlier in the week.
0.5pts each way – The Jam Man – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – My Sister Sarah – 10/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Great White Shark – 10/1 @ Bet365
7:45 – Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase – 2m 6 ½f
An interesting renewal of the ‘Blazer’s and I like four.
Gunfire Reef maybe a veteran but the 10-year-old never been in better form winning over fences at Tipperary two starts back and last time over hurdles at Limerick. Back over fences today and 11lb higher but remains a contender.
Portmore Lough’s form figures at Galway are 311, including a C&D handicap chase win in October. He then went on to finish a respectable 3rd of 23 in the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan in November. Returns from 180-day break but won off an even longer absence last October so fitness shouldn’t be a problem.
Tesseract has switched stables since finishing 4th of 16 in this race 12 months ago. But for a bad mistake at the last could well have won. A former C&D winner the 9-year-old can win a race off his present handicap mark.
Cusp Of Carabelli has only had the three starts over fences, winning two of them. Has returned from a 209-day break with a couple of runs over hurdles and was a good second to Flooring Porter at Gowran 11-days ago. This is the 7-year’s old first run at Galway and if he handles the rain softened ground in this company has each way claims.
Verdict: Gunfire Reef comes into the race in the form of his life and must be respected in his hat trick bid. The unexposed Cusp of Carabelli has each way claims if handling the track and the softer ground. Previous C&D winner Tesseract was 4th in this last year. Portmore Lough is another C&D winner and his third in last seasons Troytown handicap is arguably the best on offer.
1pt win – Portmore Lough – 7/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Tesseract – 10/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John