Hi all,
Inside today’s preview I’m looking at the best of the action on All-Weather Finals Day at Newcastle and Lingfield. Good Friday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
There’s a million pounds in guaranteed prize money on the Newcastle card. Despite the fantastic levels of prize money on offer the seven races have attracted just 60 runners. With three of the races failing to attract 8 runners. Good Friday isn’t the day to revisit the issue of a lack of horses for these types of races, but a light is firmly shone on the problem this afternoon.
I can’t say that All-Weather Finals Day is my thing but ITV4 are broadcasting nine races live from Newcastle and Lingfield. Which means it’s worth having a good look.
All the Newcastle races are conditions races. Whilst the Lingfield races are all handicaps.
Newcastle
The first race at Newcastle is the Listed race Burradon Stakes (1:15) for 3-year-olds over a mile. It isn’t on ITV but Its arguably one of the most competitive of races on the card. There are plenty of potentially progressive types among the 11 runners. None more so than the twice raced Arabian Storm. The colt who won here last month over 7f holds a 2,000 Guineas entry and is open to improvement for the step up to a mile. Benacre is a bit more exposed, winning three of his two starts as a juvenile including the last two, but he’s got the scope to do even better at three. Yes, he’s unproven on the tapeta but that’s reflected in some generous odds.
Both Shaquille (1:50) and Berkshire Rocco (2:25) have solid claims in their respective races. However, the bookies have them right.
Forest Of Dean (3:00) is likely to be popular with punters. The 7-year-old won a qualifier over C&D in January so is proven on the surface. However, he’s 5lb below Freescape on Official Ratings (OR). The Irish challenger not for the first time ran below form on the turf in Group company Meydan. He’s a better performer on the synthetic surface, being six time winner at Dundalk and looks the value play down in class today.
Positive has come back to his juvenile best in winning his last two starts at Wolverhampton and Kempton and looks sure to go close in the 3:35. He’s not the bookies’ early bird favourite though. The overnight favourite is Berkshire Shadow made a winning seasonal return/all-weather debut in the Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton last month. Looks like a worthy market leader and likely capable of winning over a mile although he’s 0-5, 1 place over the distance. Irish challenger San Andreas can’t be dismissed at the weights although he has a bit to find with Berkshire Shadow on OR’s. He comes into the race in winning form having won at Dundalk last month. In the mix for a yard among the winners.
Manaafith (4:00) made it 6-6 on the all-weather when winning a Listed race at Lingfield last time. The drop back to stiff 7f won’t inconvenience the filly and she’s already won twice on the tapeta. Will be hard to beat here.
Annaf (4:45), twice a winner here including C&D, has been a notable improver over the winter. The 4-year-old has won his last three starts including a Listed race at Lingfield last time. A neck behind at Lingfield was Diligent Harry who was having his first start for five months that day. He’s since gone on to win a C&D handicap and is best forgiven his 9th of 10 at Chantilly last month when his saddle slipped.
Lingfield
The first race (1:30), which isn’t live on ITV looks between market leaders Satono Chevalier and Vega Sicilia. The former has looked much improved in winning his last two starts at Dundalk and will make a bold bid for the hat trick. However, my preference is for Vega Sicilia. The 4-year-old, a winner at Wolverhampton in December, has finished runner-up on his last three starts. The first time cheekpieces go on today and Connor Planas takes off 5lb which can hopefully make all the difference today. Stall 11 won’t be the easiest to negotiate but he remains the pick.
Like the previous race the All-Weather Vase Marathon Handicap (2:05) isn’t live on ITV. Mr Escobar is a rare Lingfield runner for Willie Mullins. The 5-year-old who won at the third attempt at Dundalk in January is open to improvement on stable/handicap debut. The step up to 2m should suit the way he ran last time but on pedigree he’s not guaranteed to stay. The booking of Ryan Moore is a big positive though. He looks the most likely winner, but the prices Carzola looks the better value of the pair. The filly posted a career best on RPR’s when beating three rivals over C&D last month and given she’s just had five career starts is open to further progress.
It’s hard to look beyond Brewing in the All Weather Vase Mile Handicap (2:40). The 4-year-old took his unbeaten record to three when winning on handicap debut at Newcastle in December. First run since and 6lb higher but seems capable of more progress. Ryan Moore has been booked so plenty in his favour then. However, the 11/4 looks skinny enough to me given he’s yet to prove his stamina for a mile.
The final two handicap on ITV look competitive.
3:15 – Laheg returned from a 10 week break with a solid ¼ length 3rd of 11 over C&D last month. He should be spot on fitness wise and although he’s been nudged up 1lb should be there or thereabouts once more. Adeb posted a career best on RPR’s when winning at Newcastle in February. That success did come over 7f but if the forecast strong pace materialises, he shouldn’t be troubled by the drop back to 6f. Now 3lb higher than at Newcastle but remains on a workable mark.
3:50 – Outbreak and Diderot have strong claims. Of the pair I favour Outbreak. The 4-year-old won her over a mile two starts back and didn’t the best of passages in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton last month. Fair chance he will get 1m 2f around here and he remains on what looks a competitive mark. Obsidian Knight, a winner over C&D in January has remained in form finishing runner-up on his last two starts on the tapeta. All three of the 5-year-old’s career wins have come over C&D and he has a decent draw in stall 1. In stall 2 is Dembe. His last win came in this race 12 months ago and he’s still 5lb above that mark. He was disappointing at Kempton last time but 1m 4f probably stretched his stamina and better is expected back down in trip today.
Betting Advice:
Newcastle
1:50 – Benacre – 1pt each way – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)
3:00 – Freescape – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Lingfield
1:30 – Vega Sicilia – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:50 – Carzola – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:50 – Obsidian Knight – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Dembe – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John