Hi all,
A full day’s action on the all-weather on Good Friday. All-Weather Finals Day switches away from Lingfield to Newcastle for the first time this year. Although Lingfield still races this afternoon as does Chelmsford. I’m not sure there was a need for three cards today. That said all three meetings don’t lack for runners so maybe there is a need.
ITV are covering six races from Newcastle and three from Lingfield on a bumper nine race show on ITV this afternoon. I have had a look at three races on both the Newcastle and Lingfield cards and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newcastle
There’s a real international flavour to All-Weather Finals Day with runners from France & Ireland joining the home team. That’s exemplified by the first race being covered live on ITV the All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes (2:00). There are two Irish trained runners in San Andreas & Freescape and two French raiders in Amilcar & Fort Payne.
My Oberon heads the official ratings for the race. A winner of a Group 3 race at Newmarket last April the 5-year-old made a winning all-weather debut on the tapeta at Southwell and the he wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ½ length 6th of 14 to dead-heaters in the Group 1 Dubai Turf at Meydan last time. The one to beat if close to anything like his best today.
The French pair both interest me. Amilcar returns from a 3-month absence to finish a 1 ¾ length 4th of 10 to Tinker Toy in listed race at Wolverhampton last time. He was giving 3lb to the three that finished ahead of him at Wolverhampton and would have preferred a stronger pace to chase. The other French trained runner Fort Payne has won two of his last three starts, including winning over a mile at Chantilly 45-days ago. He’s only 1lb below Amilcar on RPR’s so needs respecting here.
There looks to be a strong field for the Betway All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes (2:35). Once again, we have runners from Ireland (Harry’s Bar) and one from France (Bouttemont).
Harry’s Bar is a Dundalk specialist who returned to winning ways in handicap company at Dundalk. Under top-weight of 10-4, the 7-year-old put in career best on RPR’s last time. The application of the first time cheekpieces did the trick last time and he’s got to be respected back on the tapeta.
French raider Bouttemont is more of an unknown quality. However, the 4-year-old put in a career best effort when winning over an extended 6f at Chantilly last month. He looks progressive on that form and is one for the shortlist.
Top of the shortlist must be previous C&D winner Ejtilaab. The 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced in three starts on the turf/dirt in Meydan in the first two months of the year. He showed no ill effects from his travels when comfortably winning a Class 2 handicap at Kempton 20-days ago. He’s very much an inform sprinter and will take some beating although he won’t get an uncontested lead here.
Another inform sprinter is Spycatcher who got off the mark at the third attempt on the all-weather when winning a Listed race at Lingfield last time. He needed every yard of the 6f to prevail close home last time. Today’s stiffer track and forecast strong pace should suit the 4-year-old who looks an improved.
Frankie Dettori comes to Newcastle for just two rides and the main reason he makes the journey looks to be to ride Marshall Plan in the Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes (4:15).
Marshall Plan has run respectably on his last three starts on the synthetics including when beaten a nose in a 1m 6f Class 2 handicap at Chelmsford last time. He takes on some experienced two milers here in Sleeping Lion, Earlofthecotswolds & Rainbow Dreamer on his first start beyond 1m 6f.. At least we know the surface suits him as he went close here last summer and won at Wolverhampton last spring. The 4-year-old needs to find some improvement for the step up in distance to beat those three rivals but if he does, he shouldn’t be far away.
Over at Lingfield it’s a seven-race card and its handicaps all the way but some excellent prize money means 87 horses have been declared for the seven races.
Lingfield
The first of the ITV races is the Betway All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap (2:20). The 6f Class 2 sprint has attracted a competitive field of 12 runners. Likely favourite Crimson Tide has run well on all three starts since returning from a 117-day absence including when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 6 here over 5f last month. The return to 6f will suit and the 4-year-old’s form figures around here 1142. He has a good draw in stall 5 and the first time cheekpieces could eke out a bit more improvement.
Tommy De Vito, a winner at Kempton and Southwell over the winter, returned from an 8-week absence to finish a 2 ½ length 2nd of 8 to Ejtilaab at Kempton 20-days ago. He drops back in class here and could easily return to winning ways here.
Shallow Hal has been running to a good level over the winter. He showed he remains in form when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 15 at Thirsk last Saturday. He’s better horse on the synthetics and another big run can’t be discounted from a yard among the winners.
Count Otto has dropped down to a very tempting handicap mark and tou don’t have dig deep in his form to see why. A winner here over 7f last March, off 5lb higher. The gelding went onto win a Class 2 handicap (6f) at Newmarket the following month off an 8lb higher mark. He’s shaped on his last two starts ran very encouragingly when a 3 ¾ length third of 12 at Kempton last time to think he’s turn could be near.
The Coral All-Weather Vase Three-Year-Old Handicap (2:55) has attracted a maximum field of 12. Looking at pace forecast they should go a good gallop from the off. As you would expect from a 3-year-old handicap there are plenty of progressive types among the runners.
Zameka didn’t lack pace when making all to win a Wolverhampton novice in January. He’s been gelded since and a mark of 81 for his handicap debut looks workable. Stall 6 could be worse and he seems sure to be popular with punters.
Vespasian could have been better drawn in stall 10 but he’s another who looks progressive. A winner on his handicap debut Newcastle last time. He’s been raised up 6lb for a 2-length success but he remains on a competitive looking mark.
Aasser won a 6f Wolverhampton novice in December beating 13 rivals by a length. A mark of 80 for his handicap debut looks more than fair for a colt capable of better. Karl Burke yard is among the winners
Clase Azul Ultra ran well when a ¾-length 3rd of 9 on handicap debut over C&D 15-days ago. Race fit, has a handy draw in stall 1 and gets the first-time blinkers but he does face some potentially well handicapped rivals.
Irish raider Form Of Praise put in an improved performance to win for the first time for his new yard at Dundalk 23-days ago. That success came over 7f and a drop back to 6f asks another question of the inform filly.
Resilience has really hit form since joining the Tony Carroll yard winning twice at Wolverhampton & Kempton. Both wins came over the minimum trip but he stays 6f and is only 2lb higher than for his latest success. Faces a few unexposed types but should give his backers a good run for their money.
The final race covered by ITV is the All-Weather Vase Mile Handicap (4:00). Like the previous two handicaps the race has attracted a maximum field of 12 runners. It’s a wide-open race with the Julie Camacho trained Proclaimer likely to head the betting. The 5-year-old has developed into a very useful handicapper on the all-weather. He comes into the race bidding for the four timer after making all to win at Kempton 9-days ago. Has a a 5lb penalty to contend with but if his rivals let him dictate the pace, he will be tough to pass.
I prefer just prefer the claims of Totally Charming. The 4-year-old, a winner for his previous yard at Wolverhampton last July, made a winning start for new trainer George Boughey at Kempton in January. Has remained in good form on both subsequent starts including when a ½ length 3rd of 10 here (1m 2f) last time. An 83-day layoff shouldn’t be an issue, as he won off a longer break in January. He’s only 1lb higher than last time and looks sure to run well again.
All three of Karibana’s wins have come over 7f and although he stays a mile, he may be better over a bit shorter. That said he’s been given a chance by the handicapper, now 1lb below last year’s winning mark. Hasn’t beaten a rival on either of his last two starts but there were possible excuses, he wore a hood last time. The cheekpieces which he wore when a nose 2nd of 9 at Kempton in September return. The booking of William Buick is another positive as his form figures on the 5-year-old are any eyecatching 1212.
Betting Advice:
Newcastle
2:00 – 1pt win – Amilcar – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Fort Payne – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:35 – 1pt win – Ejtilaab – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – 1pt win – Marshall Plan – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
Lingfield
2:20 – Count Otto – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:55 – Aasser – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John