Hi all,
The end of September and a third successive profitable month for the service to early prices/BOG. Mind you it was needed after June turned out to be a shocker.
The weekend’s action gets off to good start with a decent six race card at Ascot. The highlight being the Listed Peroni Nastro Azzurro Noel Murless Stakes (3.45). The going at Ascot was being described as good on Thursday evening and I’m hoping the forecast heavy rain arrives after racing on Friday. There’s also a fair card at Dundalk this evening
I have had a look at three races from Ascot and two from Dundalk in Friday’s preview. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Ascot
2:35 – Ian Williams saddles two of the seven runners in Justus & Malakahna. The former seems to be working his way to full fitness and last time was a fair 6 ¼ length 4th off 11 at York last time. Useful hurdler Malakahna put in a personal best on the level when 3 ¾ length 2nd of 6 to Vino Victrix at Goodwood two starts back. Ran poorly when a beaten favourite at Ripon but looked unsuited to the track that day and its probably best to forgive that performance. The Mark & Charlie Johnson yard have won this race twice since 2017 so you can’t rule out a big run from Temporize in the hands of Andrea Atenzi who is 4-17 from teaming up with the yard this year.
3:45 – Peroni Nastro Azzurro Noel Murless Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 6f
Giavellotto will be tough to beat in the feature if reproducing his 2 ¾ length 3rd of 9 to Eldar Eldarov in the St Leger. Three places and 1 ¾ lengths behind him in the St Leger was El Habeeb and he looks a shade more value than Giavellotto at present prices. Likely favourite Secret State has arguably the best form coming to the race having posted a career best when a 2 ¾ length 2nd of 6 to Deauville Legend in Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York last time. Lionel is interesting on his first start for John & Thady Gosden. The colt had looked an excellent prospect when winning the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood (soft) in May for his previous trainer. Ran as if something was amiss when last of eight in the Irish Derby. He must give weight to his rivals here but if he’s back to his Goodwood form won’t be far away.
4:20 – Just the eight runners but an intriguing 6f handicap. Lethal Nymph was back to winning ways when successful in a C&D handicap last month. He’s just 3lb higher today so should go close again.
Honky Tonk Man best form has come on the all-weather. If he could reproduce his recent neck 2nd of 14 at Newcastle last time to the turf, he would be a threat to all.
Aleezdancer struggled to get competitive in the Ayr Gold Cup last time but he’s back in calmer waters here and if there is an enough ease in the ground he could bounce back to winning ways.
Dundalk
There are couple of good races at Dundalk this evening. The first being the Listed Star Appeal Stakes (7:00). Cairo, trained by Aidan O’Brien, built on the promise of his racecourse debut when winning at the Curragh (1m) last time. The drop back to 7f shouldn’t inconvenience the colt who should be fine on the synthetics on pedigree. Cairo looks the most likely winner but at the prices I like the claims of Spirit Gal. The filly got of the mark at the third attempt when winning a Naas maiden 15-days ago. There was plenty to like about how much she found for her jockey’s urgings last time. First run on the all-weather and races beyond 6f for the first time. If she stays, I think she can surprise the O’Brien colt.
The final race on the Dundalk card is an interesting 1m 4f handicap (8:30). Aidan O’Brien has the favourite in recent C&D winner Gulliver’s Travels. He’s got an 9lb rise in the weights to defy on handicap debut but he’s going the right way and is the one to beat. His biggest rival looks to be Amortentia who improved for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when an unlucky 1 length 4th of 9 to Kerkiyra at the Curragh 75-days ago. The handicapper has kindly dropped her 1lb since and she did finish runner-up on her sole start here last year. The only doubt would be the step up to 1m 4f, but she’s handicapped to win if she stays.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
2:35 – 1pt win – Justus – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Malakahna – 5/1 @ Bet365
3:45 – 1pt win – Lionel – 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – El Habeeb – 12/1 @ Bet365
4:20 – 1pt win – Honky Tonky Man – 9/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John