Good morning all,
Ice Lord got into the places at Salisbury yesterday so no damage done to the betting bank. There could be plenty of damage over the next two days with Storm Alex set to bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the UK. The going was being officially described as good at Ascot overnight. However, that seems sure to change this afternoon. With Ascot set to get between 45 to 50 mm over the next 36 hours, it’s going to be a potential minefield for punters.
I had a good look at the Ascot card yesterday and there are two competitive handicaps. However, the horses that I really liked are unproven on rain softened ground.
Ascot
3:05 – I was taken with Raaeq’s win at Sandown. He’s an improver who can more race but soft ground is an unknown for the 3-year-old. The same applies to Tiger Crusade who was 3rd of 12 over C&D 68-days ago.
Ebury won over a mile here last September and showed he handled soft ground when 2nd of 12 at Newmarket last November. The 4-year-old finished 6th of 23 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, doing best of those drawn far side. Arguably put up a seasonal best when fourth at Sandown three weeks ago. Yard form is a concern but he’s talented enough to win a race like this.
Add in previous C&D winner Breanski who will be fine on the going and in the talented Herculean who returns from an 84-day layoff but looks on a competitive mark and you have a tricky puzzle to solve.
If the ground was good, I would have been with Raaeq here but the likely rain tempers enthusiasm. If the yard was in better form I would also like the claims of Ebury.
3:40 – Natural History returned form 734-day absence to win at Chester three weeks ago. If he doesn’t bounce, he looks the sort to improve for the step up to 2m. Rochester House has run poorly on his last two starts. However, a reproduction of his 2nd of 15 at Goodwood over an extended 2m 4 ½ f would see him go close. He’s got placed form on heavy so underfoot conditions should be fine. All three of his career wins have come in field sizes seven or less and if he was to get an uncontested lead in front, he could be hard to peg back.
1pt win – Rochester House – 7/1 – Gen
4:50 – Soft ground is an unknown for the potential improvers Society Lion, Kings Lynn and Fresh. Cold Front is fine on the ground and shapes like the drop back to 6f will suit but that’s reflected in his price. Many A Star is getting better with racing and has won two of his four starts this season. He’s big scopey sort who we haven’t seen the best of yet and will more races. The 3-year-old would have been the pick here on good or quicker. Musicality showed a good battling attitude to win on soft ground at Newmarket two starts back. Bot so good on quicker ground at Doncaster last time. A strongly run 6f and a return to soft ground should see him go close but he’s vulnerable to any improvers.
So just the one selection today and he needs to bounce back from a couple of dire runs.
Cheers
John