Hi all,
An interesting card at Ascot this afternoon with the three handicaps that close the card offering the best betting opportunities.
Ascot
3:40 – I think this 6f handicap is between the front two in the betting Liberated Lady & Bickerstaffe. Liberated Lady sole success came on the all-weather at Wolverhampton last November. She has been threatening to win again. Didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out and again close to the line when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 7 at Yarmouth 15-days ago.
Bickerstaffe won over C&D in July, off 5lb lower. He was then sent off 9/2 favourite for the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race which he wasn’t seen to best advantage. Shaped much better when a 4-length 6th of 24 un the Ayr Silver Cup last time. Looks like we haven’t seen the best of the 3-year-old yet.
Verdict: Preference here for C&D winner Bickerstaffe at the expense of Liberated Lady.
1pt win – Bickerstaffe – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of this 2m handicap three times since 2012. He relies on King’s Advice today. We haven’t seen the 7-year-old since he finished a 5 ¾ length 7th of 15 at Musselburgh in April. He comes with risks attached and may want quicker ground but there is no doubting he’s a well handicapped horse on his form of two seasons back.
Future Investment keeps running consistently well in these sorts of handicaps but has gone up 6lb in the handicap for not winning this season. Well suited by a good stamina test, and some ease in the ground. The first time blinkers he wore last time at Doncaster are dispensed with and he’s tried in the first-time blinkers. Needs the new headgear to eke out that bit of improvement to win.
Royaume Uni won over the distance on the all-weather in February before running well in a couple of valuable handicap hurdles here and at Sandown in the spring. Won on soft ground when trained by Andre Fabre so any ease in the ground won’t inconvenience the 4-year-old. Likely connections are looking at this as prep for a hurdling campaign. However, he still looks on a fair mark on the flat.
Verdict: The temptingly handicapped King’s Advice looks overpriced if the ground doesn’t ease to much before post time. Royaume Uni remain capable of better on the flat and won’t mind easy ground.
1pt win – Royaume Uni – 9/2 @ Bet365
1pt win – King’s Advice – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:50 – All eyes here on Kingman’s half brother Sunray Major who returned from a 453-day absence to make it 2-3 when comfortably winning a Chelmsford novice 15-days ago. Handicap debut off a mark of 95 looks very workable given he remains with the potential to be a Group horse.
Starshiba is the most consistent of horses but when he gets a strong gallop to chase, he can be competitive as he showed when a short head 2nd of 11 at Goodwood in June. He’s now 4lb below that mark and provided the ground doesn’t ease to much looks set to run well given the forecast pace.
Top Secret got a good front running ride from Nicola Currie when making all to win a C&D handicap earlier this month. Up 2lb for his latest success but could be capable of better. Not likely to get an easy lead as last time but given his liking for the hat trick I can see him going close again.
Cliffs Of Capri can usually be relied to give his running over C&D although he did produce a rare poor effort behind Top Secret here last time. However, he must be respected on his 1 ¼ length 4th of 19 behind Danyah in the valuable International Handicap here in July. A sound surface suit’s the 7-year-old although stall 1 could be better.
Woven has been very slowly away on his last two starts at Thirsk and in Ayr’s Silver Cup but has put in eyecatching performances in both races. Step back up to 7f but did win over the distance at Meydan in February 2020 when trained by David Simcock. The first time cheekpieces are applied and given his 6lb lower his last winning mark he’s handicapped to be competitive, if he can get off on level terms. Trainer Michael Dods is 6 winners from 24 runners +22.38 with his runners at Ascot in the last five years.
Verdict: At a best priced 11/8 I must take on Sunray Major for all his undoubted potential. Top Secret is 2-2 over C&D and won’t be far away again. Each way claims for Woven who is handicapped to go well if the headgear has the desired effect but needs to avoid a slow start. Starshiba will enjoy the forecast strong pace and should get a good tow into the race.
1pt each way – Starshiba – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John