Hi all,
Outside of a Saturday we don’t normally have as much competitive racing as we have this Friday. Looking at the races, I will probably have more selections today than on Saturday.
Newmarket’s two-day Dubai Future Champions festival begins with the first five races on an eight race card being live on ITV4, including the feature bet365 Fillies’ Mile (3.35). ITV4 are also covering three races from York and two from day one of Chepstow’s Unibet Jump Season Opener Meeting.
Too many races to preview today so I have decided to concentrate on those races where I have selections. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newmarket
2:25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Rage of Bomby could give a big boost to backers of Fillies Mile favourite Commissioning here. A winner of her first two starts. She then finished 4 length 3rd of 14 to that filly over C&D last month. The daughter of Saxon Warrior is capable of better and should be the favourite for this Group 3 contest.
Crystallium made it 2-2 when winning at Newbury three weeks ago and is another open to further progress.
Roger Varian won this in 2017 & 2018 and has an interesting contender in the once raced Youngest. The well-bred daughter of Dubawi knew her job when winning on racecourse debut at Leicester last month. Like most of the field, she’s open to more progress. William Buick 8 from 16 +19.77 when teaming up with the trainer in the past 5-years is in the saddle is another positive.
3:35 – bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1) – 1m
The feature race of an eight race card is this Group 1 contest. If the betting is right, it looks a slam dunk for the Gosden’s Kingman filly Commissioning who looked a Classic filly in the making when comfortably winning the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes here over 7f at the Cambridgeshire meeting.
Who’s the filly most likely to beat her? Well seven of the last 14 winners of the race had their latest start in Doncaster’s Group 2 May Hill Stakes. Six of them won the May Hill and this year’s winner Polly Pott shouldn’t be far away. The filly caused a 40/1 shock when winning at Doncaster and not surprisingly connections decided to supplement her on the back of that success. You could question the form of that race but she still looks overpriced and wouldn’t be the price she if she was a big name trainer.
Novakai was runner-up in the May Hill. She has 1 ½ lengths to find with Polly Pott and although she could be capable of better, I don’t see why she should reverse placings with the winner. Novakai’s stablemate Bright Diamond looks astronger contender. An impressive winner on her racecourse debut on the July Course. She wasn’t best placed when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 8 to Fairy Cross in a steadily run Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood last time. Doing her best work at the end of the race she will be suited by the step up to a mile and remains capable of better.
4:10 – bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Sixteen are set to go to post for this valuable handicap. La Yakel has improved with each of his four starts, winning at Southwell and following up on handicap debut at Ascot last month. He’s open to more improvement and could easily complete the hat trick.
First Ruler was 1 length behind La Yakel in that race and gets a 4lb pull in the weights. Like the favourite he remains open to further progress and the drying ground will suit him better than good to soft did at Ascot. Trainer Charlie Appleby won this race last year and also saddled the winner in 2017.
La Yakel’s stablemate Educator is also very much in the mix. He ended his juvenile season with a win at Haydock and started this season with a win at the track in April. Not seen again until finishing 2nd of 4 to Okeechobee in handicap at Salisbury 8-days ago. Ran like he was in need of the run last time and should be sharper here.
York
Two big field cracking handicaps worthy of a Saturday are the highlights of a seven race card at York.
2:40 – William Hill Autumn Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
La Trinidad won twice here last summer and finished a 4 ½ length 4th of 20 in last years race. He’s now 2lb below his last winning mark and although he’s been a bit hit and miss this season there was more to like about his length 2nd of 6 at Haydock last month.
Bopedro won the Irish Cambridgeshire last season for previous trainer Jessica Harrington. Has run with credit on all three starts since joining David O’Meara. Hasn’t been seen to best advantage in steadily run races on his last two starts. Today’s bigger field and anticipated strong pace should see him to better advantage.
Substantial a twice a winner already this season at Kempton and Haydock three starts back. Back to form last time when a head 2nd of 12 at Goodwood 16-days ago. Strong at the finish last time and showed he stays a mile well. Didn’t seem to enjoy the Goodwood undulations and will be better suited by York’s more galloping track. Looks to have a good chance if stall 19 isn’t too much of an inconvenience.
Master Zoffany ran better than his 3 length 5th of 13 to Fools Rush In at Chester last time suggests. He was drawn out wide that day and didn’t get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong. The 5-year-old shapes like he’s on a winnable mark and the easier the ground the better his chance
3:50 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)
William Haggas trained Hamish to win thisin 2019 and he has two leading fancies in Nathanael Greene & Post Impressionist. The first named heads the early betting and looked well suited by the step up to 1m 6f when winning at Haydock 97-days ago. The first time cheekpieces he wore there are retained. An easy surface clearly suited him at Haydock. He’s been raised 8lb for that success but could be capable of better still. Post-Impressionist was very unlucky in the run when a ½ length 3rd of 10 at Haydock two weeks ago and its race he would surely have won with a clear passage. Stayed the 1m 6f well and is just 1lb higher here.
Double Cherry won that Haydock handicap and like Post-Impressionist didn’t get the best of passages in a messy race. He’s only been raised 2lb for that success which could well turn out to be lenient.
Aimeric won a Chester maiden in July before disappointing when 8th of 13 in the valuable Melrose Handicap over C&D two starts back. Back to winning ways when coming off a strong pace to win at Ayr (1m 5f) 20-days ago. He seemed to need every yard of the 1m 5f last time and given he’s only been raised 2lb and shouldn’t be far away.
The Gadget Man seemed to improve for the step up 2m when winning at Chester but wasn’t inconvenienced by the drop back to 1m 6f at Yarmouth last time. There was plenty to like about they way he battled inside the final furlong to prevail last time. He’s an improving stayer for sure but a 3lb penalty in a better race could find him out over this trip.
Mark & Charlie Johnston have a couple of live contenders in Pons Aelius and Flamborough. The former has been running consistently well this season but may be better on quicker ground. Flamborough was two places and ¼ length behind Post Impressionist at Haydock last time and can’t be ruled out.
Chepstow
2:10 – Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 3 ½ f
Paul Nicholls likes to have winners at Chepstow’s ‘Jumps Season Opener’ and his record in the race since 2008 is 6 winners from 15 runners 40% +23.4 9 placed 60%. He saddles Outlaw Peter in this year’s contest. He’s the lowest rated of the eight runners but I doubt we have seen the best of him over hurdles. At least you know the 6-year-old has been aimed at this race since he made all to win at Kempton in May. It seems an obvious one looking at the trainers record in the race, but I notice he’s a backable price which makes him of more interest.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
2:25 – Youngest – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Polly Pott – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – First Ruler – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Bet365
York
2:40 – Bopedro – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Bet365 and La Trinidad – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:50 – Aimeric – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Post Impressionist – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Chepstow
2:10 – Outlaw Peter – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John