Hi all,
The first selections of what had been a quiet week on the betting front but I will be making up for that over the next three days.
Inside today’s preview I have gone through the card at Cheltenham and my selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Cheltenham November Meeting – Day 1
It was soft, good to soft in places at Cheltenham on Wednesday with some light rain forecast for Thursday.
It’s a six race card at Cheltenham with all the action getting underway at 1:10 with a conditional jockey’s handicap hurdle.
I’m looking at the four races live on ITV.
1:10 – Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 5f
Gavin Cromwell came across the Irish Sea to win last year’s race. He saddles Fathom Two who won a Downpatrick maiden hurdle (soft) two starts back and did even better when a 2 length 3rd of 6 back at that venue on handicap debut last month. Capable of better in the sphere and high on the short list.
White Rhino improved for going handicapping early this year completing a hat trick at Southwell in March. Looked better than ever on seasonal return when winning at Carlisle (2m 4f) 29 days ago. Now 9lb higher but is going the right way and today’s extra furlong should suit.
Gentle And Kind got off the mark at her second attempt when winning a Tramore novice 89 days ago. Looks a future chaser on looks but is open further improvement on handicap debut.
Another Irish challenger Skradin got off the mark for the first time over hurdles when winning a Fairyhouse Maiden two starts back. Not seen to best effect from the front at Cork on handicap debut 12 days ago. Likely to be ridden with more patience here and could go well at a price.
It will be interesting to see if there’s any money for Foillan. He’s off the same mark as when winning for his previous yard at Haydock in February 2022. Pulled up on two starts over fences last November but is having his first start for a new yard here.
Verdict: The Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero yard are 7-18 with their runners in the past 14 days so White Rhino is high on the shortlist. Skradin and Foillan are couple who could go well at big odds.
1:45 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m
The first of the four races being covered by ITV this afternoon. Calico gave Jonbon a scare in a Grade 2 at Warwick in February before going onto win a Class 2 handicap at Doncaster the following month. Looked booked for a solid second behind Jonbon when falling at the last in a Grade 1 at Aintree. Definite chance but better ground and flatter track may suit the 7-year-old better.
Triple Trade ended last season with wins at Wincanton and Kempton and started the campaign with an excellent 2 length 2nd of 11 to Dancing On My Own here last month. Shaped like he needed a return to further that day, but soft ground will at least bring his stamina into play.
Coastguard Station is a useful handicap chaser on his day and there was plenty to like about his seasonal return 3rd of 7 over hurdles at Wetherby last month. He failed to stay 2m 4f on his last start over fences at Uttoxeter in May, but this is his trip and he’s not of this.
Ballybreeze is arguably the most interesting of the 11 runners. He looked set for a good season when winning at Chepstow on his chase debut/seasonal reappearance last October. Found the Arkle Novices’ Chase to hot on his next start but still held every chance when falling three out at Market Rasen in April. Same mark on seasonal return and is open to more improvement on just fourth start over fences.
Verdict: I’m going to take on likely favourite Calico with Ballybreeze and Coastguard Station.
2:20 – SSS Super Alloys Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m
JPR One a useful novice hurdler last season winning three times. He took his form to a new level when beating two rivals on chase debut at Newton Abbot 27 days ago. Capable of better over the larger obstacles and can win this. His biggest rival looks to be Irish challenger Mighty Tom. A useful handicap hurdler he finished runner-up on his chase debut in a Grade 3 at Cork 12 days ago. There could be more to come from him over the larger obstacles.
2:55 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 5 ½ f
Delta Work is a dual Cross Country Chase winner at the Cheltenham Festival who battled on to beat stablemate Galvin here in March. Likely needed last month’s seasonal reappearance behind Minella Indo at Punchestown and this is a handicap and must give weight to all bar his stablemate Galvin. Galvingoes well fresh so lack of a recent run shouldn’t be an issue and with a 7lb amateur in the saddle is weighted to finish closer to Delta Work here.
Back on the Lash has won the last two running of this race and is now 2lb lower than for the last of those successes. Pulled up behind Delta Work in the Cross Country Chase here in March and failed to complete on seasonal return at Exeter 24 days ago. Hopes are pinned on a return to the this fences reviving the 9-year-old. If they do, he’s handicapped to go close.
Diesel D’Allier won this race in 2019 when trained in France and he was a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 13 to Back on The Lash in 2021 for his present trainer before going to win the Cross Country Handicap at the following month. He was below par on two starts last season including this race. Had a spin over hurdles at Worcester on his return last month. If the 9-year-old is back to something like his best he’s weighted to go close.
Verdict: A race that I don’t often have a bet in but it’s a handicap and I’m going to roll back the years with 2019 winner Diesel D’Allier.
3:30 – Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Hyde Novices’ Hurdle) – 2m 5f
Captain Teague, third in the Champion Bumper at the Festival in March, made a winning start over hurdles in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (2m 3 ½ f) at Chepstow last month. Looked a high class recruit to the novice hurdle ranks at Chepstow and the further they went the better the 5-year-old looked. Trainer Paul Nicholls won this race last year with Hermes Allen and has a great chance here.
His nearest rivals in the early bird betting are Irish challengers Kinbara and The Big Doyen. The first named is has won both starts over hurdles and is capable of more progression. The Big Doyen won a Tipperary maiden and Galway novice in the summer, but he had his limitations exposed when runner-up to Willie Mullins novice in a Listed race at Limerick 27 days ago. On the plus side trainer Peter Fahey did win this in 2016. Another Irish runner Sequestered has two of his four starts over hurdles. He’s worth his place in Graded company and can’t be totally discounted.
If Captain Teague can’t win this, it’s going to be tough for the British trained novice hurdles this winter.
4:05 – Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m ½ f
Impose Toi a winner of two bumpers when trained in France. The 5-year-old won two of his four starts over hurdles for Nicky Henderson. Will probably do better when going over fences but is interesting on handicap debut off what look a very workable mark.
Caithness has hit the ground running this season winning a Kelso novice hurdle on season return and following up on handicap debut at the same venue 20 days ago. Has an 8lb rise to contend with but looks capable of better.
Brook Bay a winner of an Irish Point has taken well to hurdling this autumn placing twice in novice company. The drop back from an extended 2m 3f at Wetherby last time looks a good move and is open to improvement going handicapping for the first time.
That leaves a couple of Irish challengers on the shortlist.
Downtherefordancin returned from a two month absence to finish a ½-length 2nd of 22 at Punchestown (2m 3f) 38 days ago. That was an improved performance from the 4-year-old who should be competitive even down in trip for a yard whose runners have to be respected here.
Showman improved on his previous hurdling form to win a Roscommon maiden in September and did so again when a head 2nd of 12 on handicap hurdle debut at Cork 12 days ago. Soft ground suits the 4-year-old and he’s one to seriously consider.
Verdict: The progressive Impose Toi is sure to be popular. Caithness is another progressive novice handicap hurdler and at the prices I’m just with the latter. An Irish trained runner won last year’s race and both Downtherefordancin & Showman can go well.
Betting Advice:
I’m giving a couple of races a swerve and concentrating on the four handicaps. There’re a few changes on the staking front today which reflects confidence as to each selection.
Cheltenham
1:10 – Skradin – 0.5pts win – 33/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and White Rhino – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:45 – Ballybreeze – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Bet365 and Coastguard Station – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:55 – Diesel D’Allier – 0.5pts win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:05 – Caithness – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 and Downtherefordancin – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365.
Cheers
John