Hi all,
The Derby & Oaks Trial’s season is coming to an end. However, contenders could yet emerge at Goodwood on Friday in the Height Of Fashion Stakes (2.10) and Cocked Hat Stakes (3.20). It’s the first of two days of racing on the Sussex Downs and is it’s the first of two day’s racing at Haydock. The highlight of a seven-race card at Haydock is the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes (2.30). Across the Irish Sea Friday evening sees the start of Guineas weekend at the Curragh. I will begin today’s preview by looking at the two Listed races at Goodwood. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the preview.
Goodwood
2:10 – William Hill Height Of Fashion Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 1m 2f
Looking at the early betting it looks like Emotion and Sea Silk Road. The first named looked much improved for the step up to 1m 4f when running out a 16-length winner at Kempton last time. There should be more to come from the Gosden filly. Sea Silk Road was another easy last time out winner. The daughter of Sea The Stars looked a smart prospect when beating 13 rivals by 5 ½ length at Nottingham 14-days ago. Her Nottingham success came over 1m and she’s bred to be suited by 1m 2f+.
Viareggio comes across the Irish Sea. The Jessica Harrington trained filly has the form to get into the money but she’s more exposed than Emotion & Sea Silk Road.
Ottilien looks to have improved from two to three when winning at Chantilly last month. There may be more to come from her but her best form so far has come with plenty of ease in the ground.
3:20 – British Stallion Studs EBF Cocked Hat Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 3f
It looks an interesting late Derby trial and a contender for Epsom could emerge.
Lysander couldn’t have been more impressive when winning by 8 ½ lengths at Newcastle three weeks ago. His pedigree suggests he can improve plenty for the step up 1m 4f and could be live Derby outsider if he was to win here.
Natural World won a Newbury maiden on his racecourse debut last month but found it tougher when a 4-length 3rd of 4 to United Nations in the Listed Derby Trial at Lingfield. He’s vulnerable here to the likes of Lysander but he should be capable of better.
Aldous Huxley a winner at Kempton on his racecourse debut and seemed to progress further when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 9 to New London at Newmarket last time. Another open to further improvement.
Lionel missed the Lingfield Derby trial. He finished ¾-length 3rd of 12 to Natural World at Newbury (1m 3f) last month. He was doing his best work at the finish last time and should be suited by the step up to 1m 4f. He will surely be placed to win races and isn’t out of this.
4:30 – All eyes will be on high- class but quirky hurdler Goshen in this 2m handicap.A three-time winner on the flat in 2019. He wasn’t at his best when we last saw on the level in the autumn of 2020. Given his official rating over hurdles is 157, only 87 on the flat, he’s clearly a well handicapped horse but would probably prefer softer ground. Saratoga Gold and Cherry Cola were separated by 3-lengths when first & third respectively here (1m 6f) 21-days ago. The winner is 5lb worse off today with Cherry Cola. The step up to 2m could suit Cherry Cola better than Saratoga Gold and given their odds she looks the better value of the pair.
Haydock
1:20 – Legendary Day won second time up and the 4-year-old shaped with encouragement when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 6 at Nottingham two weeks ago. He’s handily weighted off a mark and looks the one to beat if staying 1m 2f. Aasheq is arguably the best handicapped horse among the nine runners but is on a losing run does go now back three years. He’s run respectably on both starts this season and must be respected. Ziggy might prove better over 1m 4f this season but if her can reproduce the best of last season’s form on his seasonal return he won’t be far away for a yard among the winners. Vulcan made it 2-3 at Haydock when winning over C&D in September 2020, from 5lb lower. He had two starts over hurdles for Dr Richard Newland in 2021 and returned from a 13-month absence, back with Ralph Beckett, but finished a well beaten last of eight at Epsom in the City & Suburban Handicap last month. Questions to answer after that performance but the 5-year-old is well handicapped if bouncing back to form. Trainer Ralph Beckett is 6 from 19 +15.50 with his older horses at Haydock.
Curragh
Two big field handicaps catch my eye on the first of three days of racing at the Curragh.
6:00 – William Hill Emerald Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m
Fastnet Crown a winner of a 17 runners 6f handicap (good to firm) here last June. He showed his liking for a big field handicap when a 3 ¾ length 5th of 27 in last season’s Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. There was plenty to like about his ½-length 4th of 25 at Cork last time. He finished his race off well last time and the step back up to mile is big plus for the 5-year-old. Mutasarref was ¾ length and one place behind Fastnet Crown at Cork last time. He get’s 1lb from Fastnet Crown and should remain competitive. His stablemate Admiral Nelson can’t be ruled out either. The 4-year-old shaped with promise when a 5 ¼ length 7th of 17 at Cork last time. That was his first run since switching from Aidan O’Brien and it was also his first start for 10 months. He wasn’t subjected to a hard race when his chance was gone and should strip fitter with that run under his belt.
Haziya looked a well handicapped horse when winning a mile handicap at Leopardstown on her first start since switching to Joseph O’Brien last month. Has a 13lb hike in the weights to contend with today but she looked to have plenty in hand last time and is open to further improvement. Besides Haziya Joseph O’Brien also saddles Visualisation. A Listed race winner at Listowel last September and was back to form when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 7 to Layfayette in a Group 2 here last time. He might be better over slightly further than a mile and it won’t be an easy task off 10-00 but Jake Coen does take off a handy 7lb. No More Porter won over C&D last August, from 4lb lower. Back to form when a 1½ length 3rd of 15 at Roscommon last time and is capable of a good run.
Trainer Adrian McGuinness saddles six of the 27 runners. The best of them could be Star Harbour and Casanova. The former was a 2-length 3rd of 26 in the Irish Lincolnshire over C&D on his seasonal reappearance. Up 2lb for that effort but the better the ground the better the 4-year-olds chance. Casanova was a length and one place behind his stablemate in the Irish Lincolnshire. He’s well suited to a mile and shouldn’t be far away again if in the same form as last time.
Verdict: I would prefer the rain to stay away for Fastnet Crown and Star Harbour. Despite a hike in the weights the progressive Haziya needs respecting, as does her stablemate Visualisation who will appreciate anymore ease in the ground.
7:10 – William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap – 7f
Ice Cold In Alex has been well beaten on both starts at Cork this season. This is more his track. He’s a previous C&D winner and he ended a long losing run when winning over 7f here last June. He also ran well when a ¾ length 3rd of 15 here over C&D on his final start of last season. Needs a good pace to chase and luck in the run but if he gets them has good claims.
Faster looks on a reasonable mark based on the best of his form. He ran better than his final position suggests, as he didn’t get a run 3f out when a 6 ½ length 11th of 22 at Naas (6f) on his seasonal reappearance. However, his best form has come on softer ground.
Half Nutz is running well but doesn’t have much in hand of the handicapper as his 4 ¾ length 6th of 22 at Naas last time shows and he may be better over shorter. Godhead ran well on his first start for new connections when a 1 ½ lengths second of 18 at Leopardstown 7-days ago. Not certain to back up that effort but if he does won’t be far away.
Walhaan could be on a competitive mark for new trainer Ciaran Murphy. He’s suited by ground and s straight track but may prefer better over a mile. Imposing Supreme twice a winner at last season’s Galway Festival. He also went close over C&D when 3rd of 28 to Ice Cold Alex but is 7lb worse off with that one at the weights.
Heavenly Power is the least exposed of the field, having just had the five career starts. A winner of a 6f maiden here last August. He didn’t really build on that performance on two subsequent handicap runs but wasn’t totally disgraced when 10th off 22 on his handicap debut here. A half brother to Group 1 winning sprinter Slade Power he looks worth a try over 7f although the first-time hood isn’t necessarily a positive for his return to action.
Colin Keane is back in the saddle on Mean Fomhair. The filly a useful enough handicapper on her day advantage of reduced handicap mark to win at Bellewstown in September. Now 4lb above her last winning mark it will be interesting to see if there’s is any money around for her.
Verdict: Ice Cold Alex is well handicapped but may prefer better ground than seems likely today. Any rain will be welcomed by Faster who should give his backers a good run for their money. If Heavenly Power stays 7f he should be bang there on his return to action. The inform Godhead could be ready to strike but is another who might not want the ground to ease too much before post time.
Betting Advice:
Goodwood
4:30 – 1pt win – Cherry Cola – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Haydock
1:20 – 1pt win – Vulcan – 10/1 @ Bet365
Curragh
6:00 – 1pt win – Fastnet Crown – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt each way – Visualisation – 18/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
7:10 – 1pt win – Faster – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John