Hi all,
Day 2 of the Newmarket July Festival. Once again ITV are covering four races live from the meeting and there also two races from day one of York’s John Smith’s Cup Meeting.
The feature race at Newmarket is the Group 1 Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (3.15). Inspiral, with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, so impressive in winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot is long odds on to maintain her unbeaten career record. She seems to have scared off most of her rivals as only five fillies have been declared for a contest that has £250,000 guaranteed prize money.
The race of a seven-race card at York is the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes (2.40). The sponsors will be delighted that the field size has held up well with twelve fillies and mares declared to meet the starter for what looks a very competitive renewal.
In addition to the action at Newmarket and York, on what could be described as “Super Friday”. There’s a decent card at Ascot and across the Irish Sea fourteen handicap chasers have been declared for the Midlands National at Kilbeggan (7:50) which is the third most valuable race of the day.
Newmarket July Festival – Day 2
1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2f
There may only 12 runners, but it looks a very competitive puzzle. I have sis runners within 3lb on my ratings.
Prior to the start of the meeting Charlie Appleby was 7 winners from 13 runners 54% +19.83 10 placed 77% with his handicappers at the July Festival since 2016. He runs two in favourite New London and Natural World. The former looks the pick. He looked a promising colt when winning on the other track on his seasonal return. However, he was beaten at 4/11 in the Chester Vase on his next start. He didn’t handle the track at Chester. However, despite that setback is open to further progress dropped into handicap company.
Reelemin is 1lb out of the handicap but he’s seeking the hat trick after winning a Sandown handicap on his seasonal reappearance last month. The step up to 1m 2f suited the colt. He’s up 4lb but has a good attitude and there should be more to come from him. High on the shortlist for a trainer whose three runners in the race have finished, second, fourth and third,
Yonafis, a winner at Wolverhampton in May, made a promising turf debut when a 4 ¼ length 8th of 30 to Thesis in Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. He didn’t have the speed to be competitive over mile but given his sire is Golden Horn and his dam won over 1m 2f he should be capable of much better over 1m 2f
Swilcan Bridge had War Horse ¾ length back in third when winning a 1m 2f Epsom handicap last month. The third gets a 2lb pull and there shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights. If War Horse settles better than he did last time I can see him reversing placings with the winner here.
Mark Johnson’s outstanding race record
Franke Dettori is an eyecatching jockey booking for Knightswood. Trainer Mark Johnson is 6 winners from 24 runners +49.5 in the race in the past ten years, so you must respect anything the yard runs. Knightswood was a Royal Ascot eyecatcher doing better than his 7 ¾ length 6th of 13 in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot suggests. He did best of those ridden up with the pace and despite some early keenness the colt was still in in contention 1f and only gave way in the final half furlong. This was only his third career start and looks capable of better.
Phantom Flight was withdrawn at the start in the Golden Gates last time on his hat trick bid. Both his wins have come on a sound surface and over a mile. A mark of 95 looks tough on his handicap debut but he’s bred to improve for the step up to 1m 2f and can’t be discounted.
Verdict: New London could be too classy for these in handicap company but he’s a bit short for me I’m loath to leave out Knightswood with Frankie Dettori booked. My picks are for Reelemin, despite quick ground concerns, and Phantom Flight who will love the ground and should improve for the step up to 1m 2f.
2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored By bet365) (Group 2) – 6f
A disappointing field of just six fillies for this valuable contest which has £100,000 guaranteed in prize money.
Maylandsea was a winner at Nottingham on her racecourse debut before improving again when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 21 to Dramatised in Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. She was no match for the winner that day but is a smart filly who should stay today’s extra furlong. The one to beat on the figures.
Lezoo made it 2-2 when winning the Listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes over C&D last time. It was a well-run race that she won last time which she isn’t certain to get here. Still there was plenty to like about that success and she should go on to better things.
Princess Olly, a winner at York on her racecourse debut, improved again when a 2 ¾ length 4th of 16 to Meditate in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. She did best of those racing near side that day so her performance can be slightly marked up. Mawj finished two places and 1 length in front of Princess Olly in the Albany, but I can see the latter doing better here and is three times the price.
3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
The biggest field on the card with sixteen declared for this Heritage Handicap. There were few easier winners at Royal Ascot than Candleford in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap. The handicapper has had his say and raised the 4-year-old 14lb for that success but that may not stop him with the step up to 1m 6f likely to lead to further improvement. The consistent 4-year-old Contact finished 7 ¼ lengths behind Candleford in the Duke Of Edinburgh. He get’s a handy pull in the weights and shaped last time like a return to 1m 6f will suit him
Summer’s Knight caught the eye when a 3 ½ lengths 5th of 20 to Trueshan in Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last time. He did best of the held up in the Plate and wasn’t as well placed as the four who finished in front of him after a slow start. He’s on a competitive mark and has each way claims.
Despite being a 5-year-old Dubai Welcome has only had six career starts. He’s returned from a 589-day absence to finish runner-up at Kempton on his last two starts. Trainer won this race last year so that’s a positive. He’s only had two starts on turf but is reasonably well treated on his best all-weather form if as effective on grass.
Verdict: Both Candleford and Contact can improve for a step up to 1m 6f. Preference though is for Summer’s Knight who looks on a competitive mark.
3:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (British Champions Series) – 1m
Just the four fillies take on Inspiral and if she’s in the same form as when winning the Coronation Stakes then she wins. Inspiral would have to run well below par today not to add another Group 1 success to her win record as she has 10lb in hand of French Challenger Sibila Spain on OR’s.
The French filly was withdrawn after getting upset in stalls prior to the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Primo Bacio finished third in that race and finished a close-up 5th in last year’s renewal of this race. However, there doesn’t seem to be any pace in the race which won’t suit the keen going Primo Bacio. The one most likely to go forward is Sibila Spain and that means she’s the one for the forecast.
York
2:40 – William Hill Summer Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 6f
Three of these ran in the Commonwealth Cup last time with Flotus doing best of them finishing a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 20 to Perfect Power. It was a good effort but I’m not sure she really stays a stiff 6f. This will track suit her much better and she’s the one to beat if reproducing her best.
Zain Claudette was a 5 ¾ length 9th in the Commonwealth Cup. That was a respectable enough seasonal return from the 3-year-old, and she should be sharper for that run. She won the Group 2 Lowther Stakes over C&D last August and if she’s back to that level of form would be there or thereabouts.
Big scopey filly Hala Hala Athmani finished a 3 ¾ length 7th in the Commonwealth Cup. Like Zain Claudette she was making her seasonal reappearance at Royal Ascot. That was only her third career start and she’s open to plenty of improvement. There are races to be won with her
Gale Force Maya won a valuable fillies handicap over C&D last month. That success came under top weight of 10-2 and that performance showed she’s well worth her place in pattern company. Suited to quick ground we know the mare is suited by C&D so everything is place for a big run.
Teresa Mendoza returned to winning ways in a 6f Listed race at the Curragh 13-days ago. Well backed before the off she got a great hold up ride from jockey Billy Lee. Despite the forecast strong pace, I’m not sure this track will suit her as well as the Curragh but she’s in from and can’t be ruled out.
Verdict: I’m expecting a much better performance from Zain Claudette who won the Lowther Stakes over C&D last August. Flotus has obvious claims but at the prices I just prefer Gale Force Maya and Zain Claudette ahead of the big filly Hala Hala Athmani.
Kilbeggan
7:50 – AXA Farm Insurance Midlands National Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 1f
The last two winners of the Midland National The Big Lense (2021) and Freewheelin Dylan (2020) are among the 14 runners. Of the pair I prefer the claims of the latter who won the Irish Grand National in April 2021. That said neither are my selections in this year’s contest.
Henry De Bromhead saddles three. Bold Enough gets the first time cheekpieces for his run beyond 2m 5f. The ground will suit and if the 7-year-old’s stamina holds out he’s very much in the mix. Rachel Blackmore is on Popong. The mare is only 1-13 over fences but she was a solid 1 ¾ length 2nd of 9 in the Connacht National at Roscommon last time. Like her stablemate she’s well suited to summer ground and is another to consider.
Ilikedwayurthinkin came up against a well handicapped horse when 6 ½ length 2nd of 15 in the Mayo National at Ballinrobe last time. Trip will suit but he’s been withdrawn before on account of good ground. There’s a decent handicap chase in the 8-year-old who went very close in a valuable handicap hurdle at Aintree two starts back.
There should be no ground concerns for Fairyhill Run who won a handicap chase over C&D last August. The mare’s form figures when good is in the going description are 3162113. Now 13lb higher than when winning here last summer but Mark McDonagh takes off a useful 5lb. This is her first start for seven months but if she’s ready to roll after her lay off I can see her going very well.
Verdict: Apart from a slight concern about quick ground Ilikedwayurthinkin must have a big chance. I’m also expecting a good run from the returning Fairyhill Run who should relish underfoot conditions and is suited to this C&D.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
1:50 – 1pt win – Reelemin – 15/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt each way – Phantom Flight – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:00 – 1pt win – Summer’s Knight – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
York
2:40 – 1pt win – Zain Claudette – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Gale Force Maya – 10/1 @ Bet365
Kilbeggan
7:50 – 1pt win – Fairyhill Run – 14/1 @ Bet365
Saturday is going to be very busy so I will just be previewing those races where I have selections.
Cheers
John