Hi all,
Ascot’s King George meeting gets underway with a seven-race card. Given the dry weather we have had in the past month it’s not surprising that the field sizes aren’t big. There’s also a seven-race-card card at York this evening with the Listed Lyric Fillies’ Stakes (7.25) the highlight although there three competitive handicaps which interest me more. It might be worth noting that there’s a band of showers heading across Yorkshire today, but the local weather forecasters are unsure as to where they will hit and how much rain will fall. I hoping for my York selections that there isn’t too much of the wet stuff.
Ascot
3:40 – John Guest Racing Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
The Whipmaster has been well placed to win his last four starts. He’s been raised 6lb for his latest success at Windsor last month. Given his present vein form you couldn’t rule out a fifth success. There are two previous C&D winners in the six strong field in Juan De Montalban and Jeremiah. The first named won a valuable 1m 4f handicap in May before possibly failing to stay 1m 6f in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. The top-weight is 9lb higher than when winning here in the Spring but he’s likely to be well placed in what could be a slowly run race.
Jeremiah won this race in 2020 and can race off the same mark today. The 7-year-old ran well for a long way on his first start for new trainer Alan King when a 7 ¼ length 9th of 15 at Sandown 20-days ago. The step back up to 1m 4f is a plus and given it was his first start for 13 months he’s entitled to be fitter today. Whether he’ll be able to settle in this small field is a slight concern, but he looks overpriced.
5:25 – Gary McGuire Octoberclub Empire Fighting Chance Fillies’ Handicap – 5f
I can’t say Havagomecca is well handicapped horse, but the filly did win this race last year off 2lb lower. She’s been in decent form this season without winning and she’ll be fine on today’s forecast ground. Trainer Michael Dods is 0 winners from 19 runners in the past 14-days and has gone 16-days since his last winner which isn’t a positive. However, you have to respect the runners he sends down to Ascot as he’s 5 – 24 21% +16.38 in the past 5-years.
York
6:25 – Tomahawk Steakhouses Handicap (Class 4) – 6f
The pace is forecast to be a strong which seems likely to switch the advantage away from the prominent racers to those held up.
Good Earth won a similar handicap over C&D last time. He should go well again but he’s 5lb higher now and likely won’t benefit from the positional/pace bias that was in effect that day. International Girl and As If By Chance were 7th and 8th behind Good Earth beaten just under 4 lengths. Neither were as well positioned as the winner that day and I can see both of getting much closer, especially the latter who was doing his best work at the finish after not the best of starts.
Late Arrival is another coming into the race in excellent form having bounced back to win at Pontefract (6f) and then following up at Chester over slightly shorter last time. He’s up 5lb for that success but he won with a bit in hand that day and should make a bold bid for the hat trick.
Our Little Pony bounced back to winning ways when coming from behind to collar Ghathanfar over C&D last month. The 7-year-old is up 5lb, but she has won off higher marks in the past. Will get the race run to suit and expected to go close if stall 13 doesn’t prove an inconvenience.
Lezardrieux won twice off higher marks last August/Sept but hasn’t been at his best on four starts so far this season. He was a 6 ½ length 8th of 21 behind Our Little Pony but is now 11lb better off with that one this evening and shaped a bit better at Doncaster 15-days ago. He’s a well handicapped horse when back to form.
7:55 – Gallop Racing Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Call Me Ginger made all to win the valuable fillies handicap over C&D at the Ebor Festival and she’s now dropped 2lb below that winning mark. Well beaten on her first two starts back this season but there was more to like about her 3rd of 7 in a Listed Pontefract race when she failed to stay 1m 4f having been too keen out in front. Well suited to quick ground and she looks set to get an uncontested lead back down in trip. Marching Army ended last year in good form when winning twice at Kempton. Up 4lb but if he can maintain last year’s progressive form and he isn’t ridden to far back he’s got a favourites chance on his belated seasonal reappearance.
8:25 – Sky Bet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival Handicap (Class 4) – 5 ½ f
Plenty of the fifteen 3-year-old’s have claims in an open looking handicap. As in the earlier sprint there should be a good gallop. Low number seemed to have the edge here at the last meeting but most of the pace here seems to be down the middle. Plenty in with a chance including last time out Redcar winner Texas Man and all the way Wolverhampton scorer Nomasee although the latter won’t get the run of the race out in front like he did last time.
Alia Choice was slowly way but was finished her race off to good effect when 2 ½ lengths fourth of 10 to Razeyna at Carlisle (6f) last time. Stays 6f but this intermediate trip could prove ideal for the filly.
Prodigious Blue improved to get off the mark at the 12th attempt when winning at Redcar (5f) last month. Another who is effective at 6f but this intermediate could prove ideal.
Motashaweq won a Hamilton minor race over the minimum trip two starts back and made a good handicap debut when 1¾ length 3rd of 7 back at the same venue just 7-days ago. He’s only had the four starts and could be capable of better.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
3:40 – 1pt win – Jeremiah – 12/1 @ Bet365
5:25 – 1pt win – Havagomecca – 13/2 @ Bet365
York
6:25 – 1pt win – Our Little Pony – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – As If By Chance – 11/1 @ Bet365
7:55 – 1pt win – The Flying Ginger – 13/2 @ Bet365
8:25 – 1pt win – Prodigious Blue – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John