Hi all,
The Dubai Winter Carnival begins at Meydan on Friday. I haven’t really played at the last two Carnivals but for those who know me these days used be my post-Christmas highlights. With the prize money almost back to its pre-Covid levels and more international runners back then I’m back taking an interest and looking forward to the action.
In today’s preview I have looked at three of the turf races at Meydan as well as one at Ludlow. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Meydan
2:35 – Dubai Racing Club Classic (Handicap) (Turf) (1m 4f)
Charlie Appleby saddles three of the sixteen runners. Walk Of Stars, the choice of William Buick is the best drawn of the trio. The 4-year-oldwas sent off just 11/1 for the Derby before finishing last of the 17. Capable of better now down into handicap company but he’s plenty short enough for me.
James Doyle has been booked for Dhahabi. The 5-year-old looked to have improved for the step up to 1m 4f when winning a handicap at Newmarket in September. Lightly raced for a 5-year-old he remains unexposed over 1m 4f and isn’t out of this.
The third Appleby runner is First Ruler not as well drawn as his stablemates in stall 11 but he looks slightly overpriced of the three based on his form last year. He’s another who improved for the step up to 1m 4f last autumn. Will be better suited by today’s flatter track than Newmarket when 5th of 16 in the Old Rowley Cup.
Saeed Bin Suroor who won last year’s race also saddles three. The best of them could be Marching Army who was a notable improver last season winning at Yarmouth and Newbury before finishing a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 5 to Algiers at York in October. There could be more to come from over 1m 4f and in a better run race. Stall 12 could be better he should go well.
Verdict: Walk Of Stars is plenty short enough but the fact that Buick opts to ride him could be a tip that he’s been working well since arriving in Dubai. I prefer the claims of First Ruler and Marching Army although neither have been favoured by the draw.
4:55 – Al Fahidi Fort (Group 2) (7f)
The second Group 2 on the card and the first on turf. We haven’t seen Noble Truth since he made most to win the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. He had to be game to prevail that day and that will hold the 4-year-old in good stead here and in other races. The one to beat although stall 11 isn’t ideal for a prominent racer.
Verdict: Apart from a wide draw I can’t look beyond the favourite Noble Truth, if he’s ready to roll after his long absence.
5:30 – Ertijaal Dubai Dash (Listed Race) (5f)
Man Of Promise won his first two starts here last year. including a Group 3, both over 6f, before finishing a 1 ½ length 3rd of 16 to A Case Of You in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint. Didn’t recapture his Meydan best on two starts in Europe but back in calmer waters here and if not inconvenienced by the drop to the minimum trip can make a winning return.
Mutaraffa won this race 12 months ago. The 7-year-old has race fitness on his side, and he’s respected back at 5f for the first time since winning this race.
Ponntos is a real speedster he won a Group 3 at Longchamp last May. Outclassed in the King Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot but much better when a 1 ¾ length 5th off 11 to one of today’s rivals Khaadem in the King George at Goodwood. Another of today’s rivals Lazuli was ½ length and one place in front of him of him at Goodwood but he gets a handy 6lb in the weights with that one and 3lb from the winner. Khaadem hasn’t always been the most consistent of sprinters but 5f is his trip and he goes well fresh.
Man Of Promise in the one they all must beat but last year’s winner Mutaraffa and Khaadem offer more from a value perspective.
Ludlow
3:00 – Plyvine Caterers Handicap Chase (3m 1 ½ f)
Just six for what looks the best race on the Ludlow card, but you can make a case for most of them. Likely market leader Ree Okka was a promising 2 ¼ length 2nd of 4 to Doctor Ken on his Aintree chase debut but never got competitive at Exeter next time. He should be suited by the step up to 3m + and is respected but his odds are skinny enough.
Tide Times is dual course winner and finished a 3 length 2nd of 7 to Laskalin over C&D last time. He’s got a good chance if building on last time and will like drying ground.
Venetia Williams saddled last year’s winner Quick Wave, so you must respect her runner Didero Vallis. The 10-year-old looks to be lurking on a good mark, but he can be quirky. He was on a going day when a good 3rd of 20 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the festival. And when a 3 length 2nd of 7 to Head To The Stars here (3m) last December. Now 12lb lower, the cheekpieces are back on, and he’ll be on the premises on a going day bit isn’t one for maximum faith
Head To The Stars hails from the inform Henry Daly yard. The 12-year-old is a three time course winner over fences all over 3m. Stamina to prove, should stay, but he will have his work cut out at the weights with Didero Vallis.
Little River Bray won here over 2m 4f in February but ran poorly on seasonal return at Market Rasen. Capable of going well off her present mark if on a going day.
3:30 – Racing UK Handicap Hurdle (3m)
Jubilee Express a winner on his hurdle debut at Hereford in March made a bold bid under a penalty when a neck 2nd of 8 at Lingfield on seasonal reappearance in November. He’s lightly raced and a combination of the step up to 3m and going handicapping for the first time could bring out more improvement in the 6-year-old.
The Wrekin a novice hurdle winner here (2m) in May 2021 Returns from 13 months absence off what looks a fair mark for a yard in excellent form. Unproven over 3m and soft ground but capable of a good run if ready to roll after his long layoff.
Kempton
1:45 – Magicinthemaking a dual C&D winner is 3lb below her last winning mark. David Probert takes over in the saddle and on a going day the mare wouldn’t be far away from handy low draw.
Betting Advice:
Meydan
2:35 – First Ruler – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and Marching Army – 1pt win – 15/2 @ William Hill.
5:30 – Khaadem – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power and Mutaraffa – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Bet365
Ludlow
3:30 – Jubilee Express – 1pt win – 7/2 @ Coral
Kempton
1:45 – Magicinthemaking – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John