Hi all,
Jump racing is back at Cheltenham as the track stages the first day of the Showcase meeting and we are likely to see some above-average performers emerge the 2m4f novice hurdle (1.55) and 2m novice chase (2.30).
Back on the flat Doncaster and Newbury host the first of two days racing. Friday’s action is completed by evening all-weather meetings at Wolverhampton and Dundalk, where the feature race is the Group 3 Mercury Stakes run in memory of Pat Smullen (6.45). I have a fair few fancies today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury.
Cheltenham
4:15 – Guard Your Dreams, sixth of 23 in the Betfair Hurdle in February, improved again when progressed again when 10 lengths third of 12 to My Drogo in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree when last seen in action in April. Yard among the winners and he should be suited by 2m 4f back in handicap company. Best form last season came with plenty of juice in the ground but must have a good chance.
Preference at the prices though is for Found On. The 6-year-old looked much improved when jumping well to land a handicap hurdle at Stratford (good) last month. Won’t be able to dominate this field like she was able too last time but she was strong at the finish that day over 2m and should be even better suited by the return to 2m 4f.
1pt win – Found On – 15/2 @ Bet365
4:50 – Top-weight Redford Road, a Grade 2 winning hurdler here in December 2019, didn’t do as well as expected over fences last season. However, he’s only had the four starts over the larger obstacles and is handicapped to go well here. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled the winner of this race in 2012-2013 and is 5 -17 29% +11.75 with his runners in the past 14-days which is another positive for the 7-year-old’s chance here.
1pt win – Redford Road – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Doncaster
2:40 – Air Raid gave us a good run for our money at Haydock when a ¾ length 3rd of 17 to Chairmanoftheboard 7-days ago. He gets 4lb from the winner an connections will be disappointed if he can’t reverse placings with that one here. Soft ground suits the 6-year-old and he looks a value alternative to the favourite Fresh whose claims are there for all to see and was an eye-catching 3rd of 16 at Ascot, over 7f last time, in a better race than this.
1pt win – Air Raid – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:15 – Another strong favourite here in the shape of the William Haggas trained Favorite Moon. The 4-year-old goes very well on soft ground and showed his turn was near when a ¾ length 2nd of 12 at Goodwood 12-days ago. Cayirli is another who is effective on rain softened ground as he showed when a ½ length 2nd of 9 on heavy ground at Goodwood 376-days ago. Lightly raced in recent seasons, his latest run was the first start since the summer of 2019. He remains on handy mark and although he once again has a long absence to overcome his form figures when returning from a 365+ day lay off are 412 so a big run could be forthcoming here.
1pt win – Cayirli – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newbury
4:30 – Caribou never got competitive from a wide draw on his third start of the season when 7th of 19 at Goodwood (1m) 12-days ago. The 3-year-old won twice last October, including here over 6f and wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ¼ length 5th of 16 over C&D on his seasonal reappearance in April. Both career wins have come on heavy (2-2) and the addition of the first-time visor back over 7f could see him go close here.
1pt win – Caribou – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John