Hi all,
The decline in evening odds signals a challenging environment for value betting the night before racing. Bookmakers are notably risk-averse, now consistently undervaluing horses by a significant margin—pricing them at 3/1 in the evening, only to double their odds by morning.
It’s not an ideal situation, I know, as we’ve got into the habit of betting early and then utilizing Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG). With the absence of BOG, the night before racing you must be prepared to change strategy and seize betting opportunities in the morning of racing. I know it’s something that I’m monitoring going forward.
Whilst the pre-final declaration markets offer value, the uncertainty of a horse’s participation adds an element of risk. Nevertheless, a shift towards exploring these markets more extensively seems likely.
Stay tuned for further developments!
As promised, here are the selections and betting advice for Friday.
Betting Advice:
Cheltenham
1:15 – Donnacha – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
1:50 – Royale Margaux – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365.
2:25 – Top Ville Ben – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Sam Brown – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Paricolor – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Bet365 and Fontana Ellissi – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Bangor
Whilst I like First Lord De Cuet (1:30) and Astronomic View (2:05) in their respective races the bookies early prices for both were frankly criminal. Mind you, in the case of First Lord De Cuet he was put up by Paul Kealy in the Racing Post.
Cheers
John