Hi all,
The biggest race in Europe is across the Channel with the latest running of the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) at Chantilly. The 1m 2 ½ f race has attracted a field of fifteen colts who are headed by the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games.
Chantilly
3:00 – Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (Group 1) – 1m 2 ½ f
Modern Games bids to follow up his recent Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas) success. He isn’t guaranteed but should stay today’s extra 2 ½ f’s but he doesn’t have as good a draw as he did at Longchamp. I think at his present odds at around 5/2 he’s worth taking on especially as there are some highly regarded French colts in the field.
Roman Empire was 2 lengths back in fourth in the France 2,000 Guineas but seems like he will be suited by the step up in trip. Lassaut was further ¾ length back in fifth. His sire Almanzor won the French Derby and his dam’s sire won at Epsom. He was doing his best work at the finish that day. Of the two who finished in front of him at Longchamp. He looks the one capable of most improvement for the step up in trip and has a better draw than the favourite in 8.
Al Hakeem goes well at Chantilly having won on his three visits to the track. He only won a Listed race last time, but he’s open to plenty more improvement and connections have already compared him to Sottsass who won this race and the Arc. His stablemate Vadeni also comes into the reckoning after his comfortable success in a Group 3 here over 1m 1f last month. The son of Churchill has plenty of stamina on the dam side to think that today’s extra furlong can help bring out further progress in the colt who looks to have a handy draw low draw in stall 2.
Onesto improved for the step up to today’s trip when winning a Group 2 at Saint-Cloud last month. He will need to have improved again to win today but more progression does seem likely, and he did produce a good turn of foot to win last time.
Verdict: I really liked the claims of Onesto but stall 14 isn’t ideal and the son of Frankel will need plenty of luck in the run if he’s to prevail. I have concentrated on the Jean-Claude Rouget trio of Al Hakeem, Vadeni and Lassaut with a slight preference for the first named.
Musselburgh
The Sky Bet Sunday series heads to Musselburgh with the Listed Queen of Scots Stakes (5.45) the feature contest of seven-race card and there are five competitive handicaps.
4:16 – Irish raider Only Spoofing will be popular after yesterday’s 1 ¾ length 3rd of 13 in a better race over C&D. Not sure about his draw in stall 3 though. Rory comes into the race in good form. This previous C&D winner built on a recent second over C&D when coming from behind to win at Hamilton 11-days ago. Only up 2lb for his latest win, he’s got a decent draw in 11 and the likely strong pace will suit the 4-year-old.
5:15 – Geremia was 2 lengths behind Evaluation when third to that one in a York 2m handicap two weeks ago. The latter has been well placed to win his last three starts but a 4lb pull in the weights should enable Geremia who didn’t get the best of runs in the straight that day to get closer.
5:45 – Pearl Glory went close in a Group 3 at Lingfield last time and was suited by 7f that day. The filly looks the one to beat but her wide draw means she maybe dropped in a race without much forecast pace. Snooze N You Lose produced an improved effort when a ½-length 2nd of 11 on her handicap debut at York last time. Looks the likely pace angle here and should go well from a handy low draw. Preference though is for the lightly raced filly Morag McCullagh. A half sister to the useful James Garfield won at Kempton on her seasonal return and then followed up with an excellent effort when a 1¾ length 3rd of 12 in a Chelmsford Listed race last time. She didn’t get the best of runs 1f out that day and would have finished closer with a clearer passage. Just the three career start for the 3-year-old who looks open to more progress than her main rivals.
6:15 – Top-weight Tamaska has been in excellent form this season with form figures of 4112. He was just touched off at York last time but has been raised a further 5lb. Decent draw in stall 1 but can’t afford a slow start as has occurred on his last two starts. Stablemate Starshiba hasn’t not shown much on either start since switching to David O’Meara including when 10th of 20 behind Tamaska last time. He’s well treated and will likely pop up one day.
Danzan was 2 ¾ length behind in 4th in that York race. He’s on a long losing run but is another well handicapped horse when all the cards fall right. Tommy G is a three time winner at Musselburgh in the past. His last two wins at the venue have come over two furlongs further, including two starts back. Looked in need of further when a length 4th of 6, over a mile at Ayr last Monday. Needs a strong gallop which he should get and will be doing his best work at the finish. Yard going very well and could be set for a good day.
6:45 – A very tricky 1m 4 ½ f handicap concludes the card and Jim Goldie has three lively inform contenders in Grand Canal, Graces Quest, and Wickywickywheels.
Grand Canal beat two rivals at Ayr on Monday. He might be better over further but should give a good account. Graces Quest won a seller over C&D last summer and a handicap two starts back. The filly showed she remains in form when a length third of 9 at Ayr last Monday. She was doing her best work at the end of that 1m 2f handicap and will be suited to a return to today’s trip. Wickywickywheels showed much improved form when winning on just her third start since switching to the yard when winning at Hamilton last month. The filly came from a very unpromising position 1f out that day to get up close to home. Up 4lb for that success but had more in hand at the finish than her winning margin suggests and could follow up over today’s extra 1 ½ f.
Emararty Hero was in good form last Aug/September winning handicaps over C&D and York. Went close on his first two starts this season and not disgraced when a 3 ¼ length 5th of 17 at York (2m ½ f) last time. Drop back in trip looks a plus and he’s got a handy draw in stall 2 should a return to positive tactics be employed. El Picador won over C&D in April and was a bit unlucky not to finish closer when a 2 ½ f 3rd of 13 at York on his next start. You can forgive his last run at York as he completely missed the start. Not ruled out with Ryan Sexton taking off a handy 5lb. Sulochana is a consistent handicapper, but she hasn’t won since her first two starts of last season and is still 5lb above her last winning mark. The mare is likely to give her running but is vulnerable from a win perspective.
Betting Advice:
Chantilly
3:00 – 1pt win – Al Hakeem – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Musselburgh
4:16 – 1pt win – Rory – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:15 – 1pt win – Geremia – 3/1 – Gen
6:45 – 1pt win – Wickywickywheels – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Graces Quest – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Coral
Cheers
John