Hi all,
The Cazoo Derby Festival gets underway this afternoon. It’s a seven-race card at Epsom for Oaks Day. Besides the two Group 1 feature races There’s a good mix of racing with the three handicaps all attracting 14 plus runners. You can watch the best of the action from Epsom on ITV.
It’s good to soft, good in places at Epsom. However, it was forecast to be dry on Thursday and its set to be dry and mainly sunny today.
In today’s preview I have had a look at six of the seven Epsom races.
Epsom Cazoo Oaks Day
2:00 – Cazoo Woodcote British EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) – 6f
likely favourite Commander Straker sets the standard after making all to win at Bath last time. However, he doesn’t have the best of draws out wide in stall 12. Estate was runner-up to the favourite at Bath and is open to further improvement.
Ralph Beckett is 3-8 with his juveniles at the track in the past 5-years. He saddles Keep Bidding who shaped nicely on her Nottingham racecourse debut and is another open to plenty of progress on just her second start. Mick Channon trained Chilworth Icon to win this in 2012 and had the runner-up in 2013. He saddles
Legend Of Xanadu who got off the mark at the 4th attempt when comfortably winning over 6f at Redcar 8-days ago. William Buick who has a 24%-win strike rate at Epsom and rode the colt last time stays in the saddle. It was good to soft at Redcar so he should be fine on today’s ground.
2:35 – World Pool Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 1 ½ f
The first of three competitive handicaps. Corazon Espinado won this race 12 months off a 1lb lower mark. He’s won four times at Epsom and his form figures over C&D are 1231. Silvestre De Sousa has won on the 7-year-old in the past is in the saddle. Each way claims, despite an awkward draw in 16, for a yard who had a welcome winner this week. Hollie Doyle who won on Corazon Espinado 12 months ago rides Excel Power for Archie Watson. He’s won his last two on good to firm and is a perfect 3-3 at around a mile after his latest success at Windsor. Nicely drawn in stall 5 and has a clear chance despite a 6lb rise in the weights.
Revich goes well at Chester and looked as good as ever when a ½-length 3rd of 10 at that venue last month. He can be a tricky ride, but the forecast strong pace will suit, and he did win on his only start at Epsom.
Rover Varian’s older runners at Epsom are always worth considering as the trainer is 5 -12 42% +13.75 with his 4-year-old & older horses in the past 5-years. All five were also ridden by Andrea Azteni 5-8 + 17.75. The pair combine with Fantastic Fox who finished 3 ¾ lengths behind Excel Power on his Haydock seasonal reappearance. He get’s a handy 7lb pull in the weights with winner today and should be sharper here.
Seasett would probably prefer softer ground, but the drying ground will suit Variyann. He’s back from a 294-day absence but his form figures after 121+ layoff are 12. Stall 15 isn’t ideal for a prominent racer, but he can’t be ruled out. Totally Charming has been in good form on the all-weather this year. Looked progressive when winning at Lingfield in March. If he proves to be as good on turf as the synthetics, he won’t be far away off 4lb higher.
3:10 – Dahlbury Coronation Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 1m 4f
Last year’s winner Pyledriver is the one to beat but I’m going to take him on with High Definition who can win this if he backs up his recent second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup (1m 2 ½ f) at the Curragh.
3:45 – Cazoo Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Another competitive handicap and can make solid claims for half of the 14 runners. Soto Sizzler loves it around here, not been out of the first two on five starts, winning three of them. The latest of those wins came over C&D in April. The likely strong pace will suit, and the 7-year-old has excellent claims from stall 3.
Moktasaab is seeking the hat trick after wins at Newbury and latterly Goodwood. He looked on the upgrade and should remain competitive off today’s 5lb higher mark. Caradoc was 1 ¼ length behind Moktasaab at Goodwood two starts back. He’s since shown he remain inform when an unlucky in the run 4 length 4th of 6 at Nottingham 12 -days ago. He gets 5lb from Moktasaab and is entitled to get closer to that one today.
Cap Francais has returned to action in great form. He ended a long losing run when winning at Newmarket and has since gone onto finish a length 2nd of 7 to Baryshnikov at Chester. The harder they go up front the better for the 6-year-old. He can race off the same mark as at Chester which gives him a serious chance here. Love Is Golden finished 5 ¼ lengths behind Soto Sizzler in April but gets a 6lb pull here. The 4-year-old posted clear to a personal best when a ¾ length 3rd of 10 at York last month. Just 1lb higher and looks on a winnable mark.
4:30 – Cazoo Oaks (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) – 1m 4f
Emily Upjohn has been a strong favourite for this after her comfortable success in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York last time. Her stablemate Nashwa produced a good turn of foot to win at Newbury Listed race last time. I didn’t think she was crying out for 1m 4f at Newbury but if she stays, then this exciting filly has a good chance of giving Hollie Doyle a first classic success. The Gosden yard has won this three times since 2014 and a solid chance of making it four.
Aidan O’Brien has won the Oaks six times since 2012 and he has four off the 11 declared runners. Tuesday has placed in the English & Irish 1,000 Guineas and should be suited by the step up to 1m 4f. The pick of Ryan Moore. Concert Hall was ½ length behind her stablemate at the Curragh. Her dam won the Oaks in 2012 so the track and distance should suit her well. I thought she was stronger at the finish than Tuesday last time, although that one is arguably open to more improvement. The Algarve was well behind Emily Upjohn at York and could be used as a pacemaker here. The final O’Brien runner is Thoughts Of June. With that name she would be a very apt winner of the race. The daughter of Gallileo looked a much-improved filly stepped up to 1m 3 ½ f when making all to beat Above The Curve in the Cheshire Oaks last time. The runner-up has gone onto win a Group 1 at Longchamp so the form of the Chester race looks good. She looked an uncomplicated She’s a straightforward filly, capable of better still, ride when making all at Chester and I don’t think we have seen the best of her. I think she’s the overpriced of the Ballydoyle quartet.
Only one trainer has managed to win the Oaks since 2012 and that’s Ralph Beckett. He saddles Moon De Vega who was 6 ½ lengths behind Thoughts Of June in the Cheshire Oaks. However, she was badly hampered when making her effort 2f out that day. The rain that fell this week is a positive and she has each way claims.
With The Moonlight stormed home to win the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket last time. The time was good and the daughter of Frankel very much in the picture, if the ground continues to dry out and she handles the track.
Verdict: It looks like Gosden & O’Brien shoot out and I will be surprised if they don’t have the winner. Of the Gosden pair, I just prefer Nashwa although she will probably want the ground to dry out further. I know Thoughts of June got the run of the race at Chester and won’t be able to dominate as she did last time, but I think she’s a got a better chance than her odds suggest. Of the rest Moon De Vega could get into the places at big odds.
5:45 – Cazoo Derby Festival Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
A maximum field of 17 for a tricky concluding handicap. Nuvolari is the least exposed of the field. The 3-year-old won over C&D on his racecourse debut last season and put in a career best effort when a 2 ¼ length 4th of 11 at Goodwood two weeks ago. He wasn’t well placed after a slow start that day but did best of those to come off the pace. He’s likely capable of better and has nice light weight. Could get the race run to suit and trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has a decent record with her 3-year-old handicappers at the track being 4-17 in the last five years.
Lightly-raced C&D winner who took a step forward when fourth of 11 in 1m handicap at Goodwood (good to soft) 14 days ago, despite not being ideally placed. Likely has more to come and must be of interest. Could get the race run to suit.
Saleymm runner-up in the Lincoln Handicap bounced back from a below par run at Newbury when a length 2nd of 11 to Shine So Bright at Newmarket (7F) 20-days ago. Top-weight of 10-2 and a wide draw in stall 12 to overcome but a useful apprentice takes off 5lb and there’s a decent pot in the 4-year-old.
Top Secret a useful 7f handicapper, won twice at Ascot over 7f last season. Quick ground suits the 5-year-old and she should be all the better for his recent nose 2nd of 7 at Newbury on his seasonal return.
in a better race than he need contest after 8 months off (2 lb out of weights), proved at least as good as ever; in touch, headway around 2f out, quickened to lead 1f out and looked sure to collect (traded at 1.05) but headed line; he’s best up to this trip and should continue to give a good account.
Danny Tudhope opts for Darkness ahead of the other David O’Meara runner Orbaan but it’s the latter I prefer. Orbaan is on a losing run that goes back nearly two years but is 13lb lower. He ran better than his 3 ½ lengths 9th of 20 at York last time suggests. Not for the first time he was going well when not getting the clearest of runs 2f out. A strongly run 7f would be a minimum for the 7-year-old and this track may not suit but he’s a well handicapped horse when all the cards fall right.
Tintoretto races in the reapplied blinkers and its worth noting he won he won first time up in them last season. The 7-year-old is down to his last winning mark and 7f is his trip.
Lord Rapscallion is coming down the weights and was fourth of 10 in last year’s race, off 10lb higher. He is however, 0-17 since joining his present trainer and hasn’t looked in form on either start this season. On a Session finished one place and ½ length ahead of Lord Rapscallion 12 months ago. He’s a more of the pair and has been in better recent form but is 7lb worse off with that one today. Long losing run to overcome but could get into the places from a handy low draw.
Betting Advice
Epsom
2:35 – 1pt win – Revich – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Fantastic Fox – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – 1pt win – Soto Sizzler – 6/1 – Gen and 1pt win – Cap Francais -9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:30 – 1pt win – Thoughts Of June – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – With The Moonlight – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
5:45 – 1pt win – Nuvolari – 5/1 – Gen
Cheers
John