Hi all,
It’s the start of the Cazoo Derby Festiva, as if you didn’t know. Today’s it’s the Cazoo Oaks (4:30) with fourteen fillies are set to go to post for the third English Classic of the 2021 flat season. All the action gets underway at 2:00 and you can see the first five races of a seven-race card on ITV.
I have previewed six of the seven races on the card and I have selections in
Epsom
2:00 – Cazoo Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) – 6f
Hopefully the George Boughey trained Oscula can get win this juvenile contest. The trainer has been doing well with his 2-year-old’s this season with 13 winners from 30 runners 43% +11.33 17 placed 57%. The filly built on the promise of her Kempton debut when making all to win at Brighton 11-days ago. She’s got a good draw in stall for another prominent run and given she handled Brighton she shouldn’t have any problems with the track.
2:35 – Coral ‘Beaten By A Length’ Free Bet Handicap (Class 2 – 1m ½ f
Irish Admiral is a short-priced favourite for this after shaping well when a 2 ½ length third of 12 to Surrey Pride on his handicap debut at York last time. Only up 1lb for that effort and will be suited by the drop back in trip. Capable of a lot better and the one to beat if he handles the track.
Mick Channon won this race in 2015 and has a live contender in Storting. Just the one start in 2020 and he bounced back to form when winning the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time. Up 5lb for that success and likely remains on a competitive mark but the favourite could be too well handicapped.
Verdict: Hard to look beyond Irish Admiral, if he handles the track.
3:10 – Coral Coronation Cup (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Besides Irish Admiral, William Haggas has another hot favourite in the shape of Al Aasy. Just six are set to go to post for this year’s renewal and in truth it doesn’t look like there is going to be much in way of pace. He could be worth taking on here given the class opposition of he faces today. He might also want more ease in the ground and this tricky track is an unknown. He’s plenty short enough on what he’s achieved so far, against horses with Group 1 winning form.
Aidan O’Brien saddles Japan & Mogul. Ryan Moore keeps the faith with Japan who we know handles the track. However, I just prefer the claims of Mogul. He looked high class when winning the Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris at Longchamp last September. Looked badly need of the run in Meydan in March and shaped like he still needed it last time when third in the Group 1 Prix Ganey. The return to 1m 4f is a positive for the colt and he should be there or thereabouts at the finish.
Verdict: Provided he isn’t inconvenienced by the lack of pace my tentative selection would be Mogul.
3:45 – Cazoo Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Blue Cup shaped like a winner in waiting when 5th of 10 in the City & Suburban over C&D in April. He got no sort of run twice inside the final furlong and finished with plenty left in the tank. Well beaten at York last month when falling to settle. Gets the first-time hood today but needs all the cards to fall right to win.
Mark Johnson won this last year with Sky Defender who runs again and he also saddles Dream With Me who has won his last two starts at Ayr. He’s been raised 7lb for the last of those wins and looks a much-improved horse this season.
Data Protection is 2-4 here, both wins over slightly shorter, he likes a sound surface and will be better for his recent seasonal reappearance at Chester last month.
HMS President returned to winning ways at Windsor last time. The likely strong pace will suit the 4-year-old who could better as a 4-year-old.
You’re Hired goes well on good, good to firm ground. He’s having his first start since November but his record on his seasonal return on good, good to firm ground is an encouraging 1231. James Doyle booked and today’s likely the time to catch the 8-year-old.
Verdict: There should be plenty of pace which will at least help Blue Cup to settle. Dream With Me is an improver and the yard won this 12 months ago. You’re Hired has each way claims on his return.
2pts win – Blue Cup – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – You’re Hired – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
4:30 – Cazoo Oaks (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) – 1m 4f
Aidan O’Brien saddles five of the 14 runners. They include favourite Santa Barbara, recent Musidora winner Snowfall and Divinely who was backed at big odds in the ante post market earlier in the week.
The race has an interestingly look about it although on paper it doesn’t seem as strong as the line-up as for the Derby.
The once raced Santa Barbara’s inexperience showed when finishing 1 ¼ length 4th of 11 in the English 1,000 Guineas. One pedigree 1m 2 ½ f+ should suit so in the circumstances her Guineas effort was a good one. The daughter of Camelot is a lovely look filly who is open to plenty of improvement. If she stays, I think she can win, but there’s no guarantee she will.
Saffron Beach was ¼ length and two places in front of the favourite in the 1,000 Guineas. At the prices she looks better value of the pair but there are doubts about her stamina for 1m 4f and she had race fitness on her side at Newmarket.
Dubai Fountain had Zeyaadah back in second when winning the Cheshire Oaks. The runner-up was weak in the betting for her seasonal reappearance and may have needed the run. She also had to wait for a gap to appear two out and didn’t get the run of the race like the winner. Zeyaadah is open to more progress of the pair but on pedigree is by no means certain to stay a strongly run 1m 4f. Dubai Fountain is an uncomplicated filly who looks a guaranteed stayer and is almost double the price of the Roger Varian filly.
Snowfall got the run of the race out in front when winning the Musidora at York last month. Back in third that day was another Varian horse Teona. The daughter of Sea The Stars was far to keen on her seasonal return and ran green when asked for her effort two out. The first-time hood is applied today and she’s a filly capable of plenty of improvement if York has taken the fizz out of here. Snowfall has improved from two to three and another big run can be expected although stall 12 isn’t a positive.
Willow is another O’Brien runner. Her dam won an Irish Oaks and was runner-up at Epsom and she looked a nice prospect when winning a Leopardstown maiden back in October. Has disappointed on both this season’s starts. Hopes are pinned on the quick ground and the step up to 1m 4f bringing out her best.
Verdict: Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand of contenders. Santa Barbara would be a backable price at 3/1 or bigger and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if we saw a much better run from Willow unless she’s on pacemaker duties. Dubai Fountain has a solid enough place claims.
1pt each way – Willow – 20/1 @ Bet365 & Coral (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Dubai Fountain – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
We are down to just five in the 5:10 now that Mystery Smiles is out this should go Mehmento who will be warm order from a favourable draw.
5:40 – Cazoo Derby Festival Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Dulas has won his last two and is only 2lb higher than when winning at Goodwood two weeks ago. He a got superb ride from the front from Silvestre De Sousa that day and he stays on board. Stall 7 is a bit trick for front runner and he could face pace pressure from the likes Paws For Thought and perhaps Rhoscolyn. Provided they don’t go to quick the improving Dulas will be tough to beat. Paws For Thought and particularly Rhoscolyn, need respecting having won their last starts but the latter may prefer softer ground.
Ataser was one of my initial fancies but he’s now a non -runner. On A Session will land a nice handicap this season hopefully it won’t be today from stall 12.
That leaves previous course winner Arigato. Twice a winner at Newmarket early last season. The 6-year-old is back down to his last winning mark and was a respectable 5th off 11 on his seasonal return. Will be fitter today and although stall 10 is tricky if they go hard enough, he can get into the places.
Verdict: Dulas is a solid favourite and Arigato has each way claims if they go quick up front.
2pts win – Dulas – 100/30 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Arigato – 10/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John