Hi all,
I have enjoyed two days at York, but I will be watching the action on ITV this afternoon.
I have written Saturday’s preview on Friday morning so I can’t tell you if the forecast rain has arrived at the course. There’s also some light showers forecast for Ebor Day so if the rain does arrive in the expected amounts, it shouldn’t be as quick as it was on the first two days of the meeting.
York Ebor Festival – Day 4
1:50 – Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 1f
The least attractive race of the whole meeting. Nostrum had been expected to win a Group 3 at Goodwood last time after an impressive seasonal reappearance at Newmarket. His finishing effort last time wasn’t great, but I think it was the soft ground that didn’t suit him. I will be surprised if he can’t get back to winning ways. Royal Hunt Cup winner Jimi Hendrix looks to be his biggest rival but
Verdict: Nostrum a token selection but it’s not a race I will be getting involved in at all.
2:25 – Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
The 3-year-olds Ebor Handicap and the first four, yes four, Heritage Handicaps on the card. William Haggas has won this race twice since 2019 and he saddles two of the 13 runners: Lordship & Alhambra Palace. Stable jockey Tom Marquand is on Lordship but he couldn’t do the 8-3 on Alhambra Palace. Lordship completed the hat trick when winning at Haydock 49 days ago. The gelding has improved for the step up to 1m 6f and goes well on quick ground. He’s 9lb higher than last time but shouldn’t be far away. Alhambra Palace comes into the race seeking a hat trick after wins at Ascot and Sandown. He could be capable of better, but his improved form has come on rain softened ground.
Davideo looked a nice middle distance prospect when winning a Newmarket maiden in May before getting involved in a suicidal pace on handicap debut in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was back to winning ways at Newmarket (1m 4f) last month. He’s capable of more improvement for the step up to 1m 6f.
True Legend posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 12 to Balance Of Play at Goodwood 22 days ago. He didn’t get any sort of run in the straight at Goodwood (1m 3f) and if he had would have gone close to winning. He’s up 4lb but if he stays 1m 6f I think he can win this.
Verdict: One of the easiest races on the card as I really like Davideo and True Legend.
3:00 – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
Last years winner Kinross was backing to winning waysin the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last time. The right favourite and he’s the one to beat. Isaac Shelby was a neck runner-up to Kinross at Goodwood and back for another crack at Kinross. It’s hard to see him beating Kinross but he ‘s got each way claims once more.
Sacred, trained by William Haggas, is sure to be popular. A strongly run, quick ground 7f are her optimum conditions. However, she was a beaten favourite in last year’s race and looks held by Kinross.
Ryan Moore has been booked for Mutasaabeq. I’m not surehe’ll be suited by the drop back to 7f and he won’t be able to dominate this field.
Jumby won the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes last season but missed this year’s race due to good to soft ground. He’ll get the strongly run race that he needs and should get his ground, but he was well beaten in last year’s race albeit it only came seven days after his big effort in the Hungerford.
Olivia Maralda won a Listed race at Epsom in June but wasn’t well positioned when a strong finishing 1 ¾ length 5th of 15 in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. She needs to have improved plenty since Ascot to beat the likes of Kinross to win this but the 3-year-old could get in to the places.
Verdict: Kinross is the right favourite and he’s hard to knock. Isaac Shelby has solid each way claims once more and Olivia Maralda could get into the frame.
3:35 – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Long time ante post favourite Sweet William has really improved the fitting of the blinkers completing a hat trick at Newbury (1m 6f) last month. Has just a 4lb penalty to carry for his latest success and is capable of further progression. The proverbial Group horse in a handicap he was a best priced 7/2 on Friday morning and in I could see him going off 9/4.
Adjuvant won over the trip at Newmarket in May before finding 2m stretching his stamina when a respectable 2 ¾ length 5th of 19 in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. He maintained this season’s progression when a 2 ¾ length runner-up to Sweet William last time. Good ground will suit and he’s 4lb better off with Sweet William today.
Sometimes it pays not complicate things and Sweet William will be tough to beat if in the same form as last time. If you like his Newbury form, you have to think that Adjuvant has good each way claims.
Willie Mullins saddles Absurde and Jackfinbar. The former finished 2nd of 16 to stablemate Vauban in a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot. Drawn out widest in stall 24 isn’t ideal but Frankie Dettori is booked, and he won from stall 20 last year. Jackfinbar has returned from a mammoth 1459 days break with two good efforts this years including 4th of 17 in a Galway Handicap (1m 4f) 22 days ago.
Besides Sweet William Real Dream is thehorse in the line-up who is capable of further progress. The 4-year-old has won two of his last three starts since returning from an 11 month absence. Sandwiched between those two successes was a 1 length 3rd of 15 to Scampi (1m 4f) here in May. Yard form is a concern as they have gone 21 runners and 30 days since a winner.
Scriptwriter, was a promising effort 12 ½ length 7th of 16 to Vauban at Royal Ascot. Seemed to out in a much improved effort when head 2nd of to Hamish in a Group 3 over C&D last month. Looks set for another good run returned to handicap company.
Live Your Dream has returned from a 609 day layoff in excellent form finishing runner-up at Haydock before an excellent 3rd of 18 in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot and winning a Heritage Handicap (1m 6f) last month. Up 5lb but the top-weight shouldn’t be far away.
HMS President has returned to action in excellent form, winning a Newmarket handicap over the distance in May before finishing a neck 2nd of 18 in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. Another up 5lb but he’s consistent sort who should give his running once more.
Scampi won here (1m 4f) in May and was back to winning ways at the Shergar Cup (1m 4f) two weeks ago. Has a 4lb penalty to carry for his Ascot success which is manageable but I’m not sure he’ll stay 1m 6f as strongly as some of his rivals.
Get Shirty was in excellent form last season, winning four times including the Copper Horse Handicap (1m 6f) at Royal Ascot and the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Wasn’t well placed when an excellent 3 ¼ length 5th of 20 in last year’s race. Form has been regressive since returning from a spell in Meydan but he’s now nicely handicapped and can’t be discounted even from stall 23.
Ebor Verdict: Sometimes it pays not to overcomplicate things and Sweet William will be tough to beat if in the same form as last time. If you like his Newbury form, you must think that Adjuvant has solid each way claims. Real Dream is capable of better, but the yard’s form could be better. Live Your Dream has been prepared for this, but it won’t be easy to give 10lb to Sweet William. Scriptwriter hasn’t had many goes on the flat and ran well behind Hamish last time. Get Shirty has dropped to a tempting mark but his form coming into the race is a worry.
4:10 – Sky Bet Constantine Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Orazio had looked a potential Group sprinter in handicaps when winning at Newmarket and Ascot in the spring. Not disgraced when a 2 ½ length 6th of 27 in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot but was 18th of 27 in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood. This sort of ground will suit him than bottomless ground last time. The lightly raced 4-year-old remains with potential and he could bounce back here.
Summerghand hit form in the second half of last season winning this corresponding race last year before going onto win the Ayr Gold Cup. The 9-year-old seems to be coming to the boil once more and finished a head 2nd of 18 in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon last Saturday. The return to quicker ground is a plus and he’s handicapped to win if backing up last week’s effort. Drawn out on a wing in 20.
Mr Wagyu twice a winner last year and a 2 ¼ length 5th of 17 in last years race off 9lb higher. Hadn’t been able to take advantage of declining mark so far this season but was a respectable 4th of 27 in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood three weeks ago. Better ground will suit the 8-year-old and he’s high on my shortlist.
Albasheer has shaped with promise since joining Archie Watson this year. Seemed to take to the first time blinkers when a running on 3 length 11th of 27 to stablemate Saint Lawrence in Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot. He didn’t run too badly when a 5 ½ length 8th of 27 in the Stewards Cup last time on ground that would have been plenty soft enough. Lightly raced for 5-year-old I think he’s a winnable mark when all the cards fall right.
Verdict: In truth I could easily end up backing all four on my shortlist. I’m probably going to regret leaving Summerghand out, but I don’t like sprinters out on a wing. I have been waiting for Albasheer to get back on a sound surface. There’s a decent pot in Orazio and today could be the day for Mr Wagyu.
4:45 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) -5f
Purosangue finished a neck 2nd of 8 to Big Evs in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood 23 days ago. The drop back to 5f seemed to suit the colt last time and he’s the clear best of these on form shown so far.
Inquisitively runner-up on his Windsor racecourse debut improved to finish a 3 3/3 length 3rd of 23 to Big Evs in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. He showed plenty of pace last time and this track could suit him better than Ascot. William Buick 4-14 29% +10.75 has been booked and he could go well.
Mon Na Slieve made all to win a C&D novice at the Dante Meeting and wasn’t disgraced when a 6 ½ length 8th of 14 in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He showed plenty of pace in the Norfolk and a return to York will suit the Kevin Ryan trained juvenile. Yard won this in 2013.
Sketch impressed when winning at Newbury on his racecourse debut last month. He didn’t like soft ground when well beaten by Vandeek in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. He’s surely better than he was able to show last time, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back here.
Verdict: Purosangue has the best form but at the prices Inquisitively and Mon Na Slieve make more appeal.
5:20 – Sky Bet Finale Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Haunted Dream has placed on his last three startsin similar handicaps and posted a career best when a length 2nd of 15 at Goodwood 25 days ago. Nudged up another 3lb for his latest effort demand more from the 4-year-old but he’s in great form at present and Ryan Moore booked.
Astro King wasn’t the easiest to win with when trained by Sir Michael Stoute although he produced several good efforts in Heritage Handicaps. Switched to the Kubler yard this season he finished 4th of 16 in a mile handicap here at the Dante Meeting. Bounced back from a poor run at Royal Ascot when a nose 2nd of 18 in the John Smith’s Cup over C&D last month. Big player again, despite a 3lb rise, with William Buick booked.
Symbol Of Light completed an all-weather hat trick in January 2022 when trained by Charlie Appleby. Returned from a 518 day lay off for a new yard with a promising neck 4th of 10 to Lattam at Newcastle 58 days ago. Interesting on just his second start on turf and upped in trip to 1m 2f (should stay).
Have Secret has run well on all three starts this season without winning. No chance with a potential Group horse when a 6 ½ length 2nd of 15 to Royal Rhyme at Goodwood earlier in the month. Vulnerable to better handicapped rivals in all likelihood.
Thundering is potentially well handicapped on the best of last year’s form when a ¾ length 2nd of 16 in a valuable handicap here (1m 4f) 12 months ago. He’s now 6lb lower but the drop back to an extended 1m 2f isn’t likely to play to his strengths and his form this season has been poor.
Verdict: I think the market has got this right with the class/ form horses Haunted Dream and Astro King at the head of the betting. Symbol Of Light is interesting but must prove he’s as good on turf and the new trip asks a question stamina wise. Thundering has become well handicapped and is tempting but his recent form is very off-putting. Would I be shocked if he won? No, but I can’t put him up either.
After a quiet couple of days for the Ebor Festival micro-system there are lot of qualifiers on Saturday.
Betting Advice:
York
2:25 – Davideo – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral and True Legend – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral
3:00 – Isaac Shelby – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral
3:35 – Adjuvant – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral and Scriptwriter – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Bet365
4:10 – Mr Wagyu – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral, Orazio – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral and Albasheer – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Coral
5:20 – Haunted Dream – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral and Astro King – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral.
Cheers
John