Hi all,
Montatham saved the day at yesterday’s Ebor Festival. We move onto day three still afloat and the feature race of a seven-race card is the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes. It’s the day for Battaash to wow us like Love did yesterday. Bar the ground going too soft the fastest 5f horse in a generation should win Friday’s big one. That said I do have one that can get into the places.
York
1:45 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
A slightly disappointing field of just ten runners have been declared for the opener.
Zabeel Champion heads the market and the 3-year-old comes into the race with an improving profile having won twice at Newmarket before finishing 2nd of 11 at Goodwood 22-days ago. Didn’t seem totally at home on the undulations at Goodwood and should be better on a more galloping track. The ground looks ideal and he shapes like the step up to 1m 4f will bring out more improvement. Plenty to like about his chance apart from his price.
The biggest danger to the favourite could be stablemate King’s Caper. The 3-year-oldcame within a nose of winning the Italian Derby two starts back. Last time out he finished 6th of 10 in a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood. Needs to improve to win this but is progressing with racing and a stronger gallop than at Goodwood and the easier going could see him maintain that progress can get in to the places.
Verdict: Zabeel Champion has plenty in his favour but stablemate King’s Caper has each way claims.
1pt each way – King’s Caper – 9/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
2:15 – Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) – 2m ½ f
The step up to 2m shouldn’t stop Enbihaar winning this. The mare has a likeable profile and looks ready for today’s new distance. The only thing that will stop her is the ground. Good is fine, good to firm is even better. Good to soft and even soft would be slight concerns. That said I still think she follow in the hoof prints of stablemate Stradivarius who has won the last two renewals of the race.
Verdict: Enbihaar for me if the ground doesn’t come up to soft or sticky.
2:45 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) – 6f
From the stayers to the speedy juvenile colts & geldings. Minzaal heads the market after a facile win at Salisbury 12-days ago. After that success connections were talking about the colt being a Middle Park horse. We will know whether he’s up to that level later this afternoon but he looks a smart juvenile prospect. Both starts so far have been on good to firm and if he handles today’s different under foot conditions, I expect the colt to go close here. On form the pick must be the luckless Yazaman who has finished runner-up to the Tactical at Royal Ascot and the Group 2 July Stakes. The Kodiac colt then was unfortunate to come up against arguably the best English trained juvenile we have seen so far this season in Supremacy. He sets the standard that they all must beat and it will be interesting to see if the like of the Minzaal can rise to the challenge.
Verdict: Minzaal is the one with potential but Yazaman has the form in the book to win this.
3:15 – Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series – 5f
Battaash is the fastest 5f horse in a generation. He wins this easy or he should do provided the ground isn’t to soft. It’s a fight for the places or the betting without market which offers punters as a chance of some return.
Art Power is the new kid on the block. The 3-year-old is a rapidly improving sprinter who went over to Ireland to win a Group 3 last month. No doubt he’s a future Group 1 winner in waiting and the softer the ground the better his chance.
My offering each way though is Moss Gill. The 4-year-old’s form figures over C&D are 2211. Two of his career wins have come on soft so more rain the better for him. I don’t see him beating Battaash or Art Power on these terms but he can give us a good run for our money.
Verdict: Battaash all the way provided the ground isn’t to soft. Course specialist Moss Gill is a lively contender for the places at big odds.
0.5pts each way – Moss Gill – 40/1 @ Bet365
3:45 – British Stallion Studs EBF Convivial Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 2) – 7f
Plenty of unknowns in the most valuable juvenile maiden of the season. Broomy Law shaped with promise when 3rd of 9 at Haydock on his racecourse debut and will have improved for that run. Rushmore must have been showing something at home as he was sent off the 11/4 favourite for Newbury maiden 34-days ago. He was slowly away that day and could only finish 7th of 15. He’s likely better than he showed last time and better can be expected from this well-bred son of Lope De Vega.
Verdict: Better can be expected from Rushmore today but he wouldn’t be a confident selection in a race with too many unknowns.
4:15 – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Asiaaf an eyecatcher for me at Goodwood last time heads the bettingand she must have a great chanceif reproducing the form of her recent Goodwood second. It’s the filly’s first run on going worse than good though which is a slight concern.
Roger Varian saddles a couple of lively contenders in Waliyak & Angel Power. The former was an excellent second in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot before occupying the same position behind all the way winner Chamade (who re-opposes here) at Goodwood. She’s gets 5lb from the winner and deserves to land a race like this. Angel Power won a Chelmsford novice on her seasonal return and has finished runner-up in handicaps at Haydock and Goodwood. Just the four career starts and could be capable of better stepped up to 1m 2f for the first time.
Chamade is an improving filly as she showed when making all to win at Goodwood last time. She got the run of the race that day and may not get that luxury this time. However, If she does she can’t be discounted here even off 8lb higher.
Verdict: Asiaaf looks the most likely winner but she looks plenty short enough given softish ground would be an unknown for her. I’m leaning towards the Varian pair of Waliyak & Angel Power with a slight preference for the latter at the prices.
1pt win – Angel Power – 13/2 @ Bet365
4:50 – Sky Bet Mile Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m
Just a 16 runner, 3-year-old’s only handicap puzzle to solve and it’s a tough one for the ‘getting out stakes’. Indeed, I could make a decent case for twelve here.
The most intriguing runner must be the Mark Johnson trained Visinari. The colt made a big impression and had the sectional fans ‘purring’ when winning on his racecourse debut at Newmarket last June. Had his limitations exposed in Group/listed company on his next three starts but has always looks like he would make a better 3-year-old. Seasonal return here but he goes well fresh and looks interesting on handicap debut. Stablemate Overwrite was first past the post at Newbury on Sunday and can’t be discounted if getting an easy lead out in front.
William Haggas saddles three in Cold Front, Grand Rock & Johan. They all have claims but Grand Rock looks the most interesting in the first time cheekpieces and dropped back to a mile.
Magnetised was well fancied for his Goodwood Handicap debut 22-days ago. He ran too bad to be true and all only beat one home. After the race the trainer said the colt had a breathing problem so the first-time tongue tie could make all the difference today. He’s surely better than he showed last time and has a nice light weight here.
Hat trick seeking Mon Choix can’t be ruled out although his improved form has come on good to firm going and he’s 13lb higher than when winning at Sandown.
The likes of Eastern World and Finest Sound are solid. Add in improvers like Brunch, Hartswood and Cloud Drift and you have the makings of one of the most competitive races of the four days.
Verdict: Visinarihas questions to answer but remains with potential to be better than a handicapper. Magnetised is likely on a winnable mark and if you forgive his Goodwood run and looks capable of a bold showing. William Haggas sets a poser with his three runners but the drop back to a strongly run mile could suit Grand Rock who won’t be inconvenienced by further rain either.
1pt each way – Grand Rock – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – Visinari – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes
0.5pts each way – Magnetised – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Cheers
John