Hi all,
Day one of York’s Ebor Festival and it looks a cracker. The standout race of a seven-race card is of course the Group 1 Juddmonte International (3:15).
It’s a fascinating renewal with a small but select field of five runners. They are headed by Coronation Cup & Eclipse winner Ghaiyyath, six-time Group 1 winning mare Magical, Prince Of Wales winner Lord North and 2000 Guineas winner Kameko.
However, it’s the handicap races that provide the best opportunities for some value betting.
The going is being described as good, good to soft in places and a small amount of rain is forecast so the ground won’t be quicker than good.
York
1:45 – Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (Class 2) – 5 ½ f
A maximum field of 22 are declared to go to post. The pace is forecast to be strong with plenty of the runners liking to be out in front.
Michael Dods saddled last year’s winner Dakota Gold and has the ante-post favourite in Jawwaal. The 5-year-old has won both his starts this season. He’s been raised 8lb for the last of those wins but is a sprinter in the winning habit and the hat trick is possible.
Kevin Ryan trained the winner in 2013 & 2014 and he saddle Justanotherbottle. The 6-year-old shaped with promise when 3rd of 8 at Ayr on his last start. This intermediate trip could well suit and he’s dropped down to an attractive mark.
Arecibo doesn’t win very often and does need all the cards to fall right but he’s suited to this distance. As he showed when 3rd of 22 in this race 12 months ago. He’s 4lb lower this time around and could get the race run to suit.
Ed Walker saddles a couple of lively contenders in Jonah Jones & Come From the Dark. The former gets 9lb from Jawwaal for a 2 ¾ length beating at Ascot two starts back. He’s since disappointed when 2/1 favourite in a 6f handicap here 24-days ago. If you forgive that run, he’s contender here and like Arecibo will be suited by the likely strong pace. Come From The Dark ended last season in fine form winning at Haydock (soft) and then improving further when a neck 2nd of 17 at Ascot. Just 3lb higher now but capable of more progress this season and Ryan Moore booked for his seasonal return.
Aplomb finished fourth behind Jawwaal at Ascot. He’s handicapped to win a race like this but would probably prefer softer ground. That comment also applies to Hyperfocus.
1pt win – Arecibo – 7/1 @ Paddy Power
3:45 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Ralph Beckett trained the winner of this race in 2017 & 2018. The latter of those wins came with Here And Now who made an encouraging return from 613-day absence when 9th of 16 at Royal Ascot. A good even gallop will suit the 6-year-old who has each way claims.
Beckett also saddles likely favourite Make My Day who also won here, off a long absence, on his first start for the trainer last month. Now 6lb higher he’s open to further improvement for the step up to an extended two mile. More rain wouldn’t inconvenience
Just In Time who made a promising return from a 645-day lay off when 6th of 11 at Newbury last month. The first time cheekpieces have been applied and he’s another who could run into the money.
The inform Monsieur Lambrays bids for the hat trick after wins at Salisbury and over C&D 24-days ago. He’s 8lb higher in a deeper race but shouldn’t be far away given his present form.
1pt each way – Here And Now – – 12/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
4:20 – Sky Bet Fillies’ Sprint Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Yorkshire born William Haggas, likes having winners at York at any meeting but probably even more so the Ebor Festival. All nine of his winners in the past five years were aged two or three. He’s 0 winners from 19 runners 4 placed with his older horses.
Those qualifiers going off 15/2 or less have produced the following – 9 winners from 27 runners 33% +10.88 11 placed 41%. He saddles Dancin Inthestreet who had looked unlucky in the run in two starts in handicaps at Royal Ascot & Newmarket before struggling in a Group 3 here over 6f last time. The return to the minimum trip will suit her running style means she needs luck in running.
The other Haggas runner is the lightly raced Pink Sands. The 3-year-old was having just her 4th start when a highly credible 3rd of 6 on her handicap debut at Sandown 12-days ago. The first time cheekpieces are applied and Cieren Fallon takes off a handy 3lb. If the headgear has the desired effect then filly should be firmly in the mix.
1pt win – Pink Sands – 13/2 @ Paddy Power
4:50 – Sky Bet Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
A 13-runner nursery looks a tricky concluding race. It’s another race where plenty of paces is forecast. One of the likely front runners is the Mark Johnston trained Toussarok. A winner at Newcastle on his racecourse debut he followed up that effort with a good second by Darvel (who runs in the Group 3 at 2:15) at Ayr. He’s open to further improvement on his nursery debut.
A strong pace could set this up for a more patiently ridden horse like Pure Dreamer who looked in need of return to 6f when a running on third at Sandown 12-days ago and looks on a workable mark for his nursery debut. Trainer Richard Hanno saddled the 2018 winner.
Another runner who would be suited by a strong pace is Line Of Departure, trained by Roger Varian, more exposed than most but he’s improved to win his last two starts both on good to firm. He’s just 5lb higher than when a decisive winner at Ascot 11-days ago. In the mix if the slightly slower ground doesn’t inconvenience.
Cairn Island put his experience to good use when winning an Ayr novice last month. Another capable of more progress on his nursery debut and big run is expected for local trainer Kevin Ryan who won the race in 2010.
Churchill Bay is another open to more improvement on his nursery debut and is another contender if handling today’s likely slower surface.
1pt win – Pure Dreamer – 5/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Cairn Island – 5/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John