Hi all,
Teddy’s Blue’s win at Plumpton ensured no damage done to the betting account on Sunday.
A new week begins with one Grand National and ends with another. The highlight of the final day of Fairyhouse’s Easter Festival is of course the Boylesports Irish Grand National (5:00). The richest jumps race run in Ireland with €500,000 guaranteed prize money has attracted a maximum field of 30 runners.
ITV4 are covering five races from Fairyhouse and four races from Kempton this afternoon. The best of the Kempton races is a competitive looking renewal of the Class 2 Racing TV Rosebery Handicap (4:05).
Easter Monday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece if you don’t want to ready today’s preview. Although I suggest you do spend some some time on it.
Fairyhouse
The Irish Grand National isn’t a race I have had much luck in but hope springs eternal that I will find the winner one day.
5:00 – BoyleSports Irish Grand National Chase (Grade A) – 3m 5f
Thedevilscoachman was promoted to ante post favourite for the race after winning a Grade 3 Limerick (3m ½ f) last time. He’s progressive and if he cuts out the mistakes and stays 3m 5f can close.
Given his inexperience over the larger obstacles Panda Boy ran a cracker when a ¾ length 3rd of 28 in the valuable Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Fell back at that venue over shorter last time. The 7-year-old has only had five starts over fences and if his confidence has been affected, by last time he’s a big contender.
Stumpton comes into the race in excellent form and just failed to land the hat trick when a gutsy neck 2nd of 23 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. The 6-year-old is going the right way and there could be more improvement to come over this longer distance. If he didn’t have a hard race last time, he’s a big player. Angels Dawn carries 9lb penalty for her Cheltenham win in the Kim Muir but is capable of another big run if Cheltenham hasn’t left a mark on the mare.
Now Where And When seemingly put in a much improved performance when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 8 to Kemboy in the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase here last time. He looks well treated on that effort and isn’t discounted if staying today’s longer trip.
Top weight Royale Pagaille has a touch of class and wasn’t disgraced when 24 length 6th of 13 to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup. Today’s trip should be within his stamina range. However, he probably needs soft or heavy ground to be seen to very best advantage. Interesting back in handicap company below his last winning mark.
There are three Grade 2’s on the Fairyhouse card. The Donohue Marquees Juvenile Hurdle (2:40). The Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Hurdle (3:50). And finally, the McInerney Properties Fairyhouse Chase (4:20). All three are interesting enough contests but make limited appeal from a betting perspective.
In the first of those races Blood Destiny will attempt to bounce back from a poor run in the Triumph Hurdle last time. The hood and the first time tongue are applied, and he remains with potential in the sphere. His biggest rival maybe Sir Allen who was 5 lengths behind Blood Destiny on his hurdle debut at Cork in December. Sir Allen wasn’t seen to best effect when a 7 length 11th of 21 in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. Has each way claims if bouncing back.
In the second Grade 2 Willie Mullins has a strong hand with likely favourite Asterion Forlonge and the returning Monkfish. The first named was a solid enough runner-up on his first start for 12 months at Thurles last month. That was his first start over hurdles for 3 years and he looks the one to beat in what looks a weak race. Monkfish is returning from a mammoth 713 day break and will likely need the run.
Easy Game has been installed the bookies early bird favourite in the 4:20. The 9-year-old has won this race for the past two years and looked as good as ever when winning six of seven starts last summer and autumn. He’s well suited to these small field contests and provided the ground isn’t too soft the one to beat. French Dynamite ran a cracker when a 5 ¾ length 4th of 9 to Envoi Allen in Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham and looks Easy Game’s biggest rival.
Besides the feature race there are three other handicaps on the Fairyhouse card. All three are tricky puzzles but I will be having a go at all three races.
2:05 – Farmhouse Foods Novice Handicap Hurdle – 2m
Telcon is open to further improvement over hurdles but has been off for seven months and probably wants better ground. Mind you there are plenty of others among the 25 runners who are open to further progress including the likes of Realism and Splashing Out. The former makes his handicap hurdle debut off what looks a good mark compared to his flat mark. Splashing Out shaped like she needed further than 2m when a useful 2 ¼ length 5th of 14 on handicap debut at Wexford last month. Looks on a competitive enough mark and is open to further progress.
3:15 – Fairyhouse Steel Handicap Hurdle – 2m 5 ½ f
Cadatharla won on handicap debut at Naas two starts back and improved again when a neck 2nd of 14 to L’yser here (2m 4f) last time. The winner was successful here yesterday, so the form looks solid. Progressive and capable of going winning this if staying today’s slightly longer trip. A Great View has been a grand servant to connections over the year’s and has dropped down to handy mark. You can never rule out the 12-year-old at this time of year but I’m hoping he’s been aimed at Punchestown Festival where he won a handicap hurdle (2m 7 ½ f) last year. Papal Lodge hails from the inform Peter Fahey yard. The 7-year-old got off the mark at the third attempt for his new trainer when winning a three mile handicap hurdle at Thurles 28-days ago. Up 7lb and down in trip here but one to keep onside given the stable form.
5:40 – Thebeautybasket.ie Handicap Chase – 3m ½ f
Sir Bob bounced back to winning ways at Limerick & Punchestown and showed he remains inform when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 12 at Navan last month. Not to be discounted given his current vein of form and in particular if getting soft ground. Macs Charm has qualified for handicap chases after three runs in beginners/novice company. Comes into the race after a respectable 6 length 2nd of 9 to Ain’t That A Shame in novice chase at Gowran Park last time. His stamina for 3m must be proven but should stay and probably wants the rain to arrive. He starts off in handicap chases of what looks a good mark if his stamina holds. Gateau De Miel likely wasn’t right when a disappointing 11th of 16 on handicap chase debut at Leopardstown over Christmas. Is better than he was able to show last time, and a reproduction of his C&D beginners chase win in November would see the 7-year-old bang there. The Dabbler isn’t the one consistent of handicap chasers and is having his first start for 127-days but he’s lurking on a good mark if ready roll after his layoff.
Kempton
4:05 – Racing TV Rosebery Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 3f
As competitive a race as you will see this side of the Irish Sea with a maximum field of 14 declared and you can give more than half the field a chance.
Previous C&D winner Pride of Priory is sure to be popular with punters with William Haggas booking Ryan Moore for the ride. Has a big chance if ready to roll on his seasonal return. Simply Sondheim made it 3-6 when winning over C&D 9-days ago. Up just 3lb but up two notches in class and has a wide draw in stall 13 to overcome. Despite that draw he’s got to be high on the shortlist given he’s in good form. Consistent 4-year-old Capital Theory was back to winning ways at Chelmsford last month. He’s up 2lb for his latest win but is very much in the mix and his rivals wouldn’t want to give him an uncontested lead. Soto Sizzler can’t be ruled out in this company, but he tends to need his seasonal reappearance and he will be of more interest back at Epsom at the end of the month.
Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy has a couple of live contenders in Max Mayhem and Evania. The first named makes his stable debut after moving from Joseph O’Brien and the trainer is 11 winners from 57 bets 19% with his handicap runners having their stable debut. Max Mayhem went close on his all-weather debut at Dundalk in October and is on mark he can win off. Evania had Capital Theory 1 length back in second when winning at Southwell (1m 4f) two starts back. Seemed unsuited by the modest pace and wasn’t at her best when last of six at Wolverhampton last time. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see the lightly raced 5-year-old return to form back at a track she’s won at in the past.
Betting Advice:
Fairyhouse
2:05 – Splashing Out – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:00 – Royale Pagaille – 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Bet365, Now Where And When – 1pt win – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Thedevilscoachman – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
5:40 – Macs Charm – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Bet365
Kempton
4:05 – Evania – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
I will be back on Thursday for day one of the Randox Aintree Grand National Festival.
Cheers
John