Hi all,
Erevann got within two necks of Inspiral in yesterday’s Jacques le Marois. Hopefully some of you ignored my win only advice and had him each way at 25/1.
I wasn’t going to put anything up today, but I had forgot that there were couple of decent handicaps at Dundalk on Monday afternoon. I have had a look at both and have selections in each of them. The best of them is the Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Red God” Handicap (4:40) which has €50,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Dundalk
4:40 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Red God” Handicap – 1m 2 ½ f
Fourteen are set to go to post for the day’s feature race. It should be a run at good pace and could suit those ridden more patiently.
Ides Of August won this last year off 7lb lower. Form on turf this season hasn’t been great though and the first-time blinkers need to perk him back to form.
Bowerman is a four-time winner around here, including 3-6 over C&D. He’s another who’s been struggling on turf this season. Needs a return to the all-weather to have the desired effect. If it does, he’s very well treated on the best of his course from.
Isle Of Sark ran Bowerman to nose over C&D in February. He’s got a few pounds to find at the weights today with Bowerman and has run poorly on turf on his last two starts.
No issues with the current well-being for the likes of Snag It, Eighty Eight, Catena Zapata or Saraqael.
Snag It posted a career best on RPR’s when winning at Tipperary (1m 1f) 10-days ago. He’s got a 6lb rise in the weight to defy but is inform and won on the all-weather in France. High on the shortlist.
Eighty Eight has been in great form this season on turf winning at Gowran Park in June and was ½-length 2nd of 13 at Naas two weeks ago. All weather debut and if he’s as effective on the synthetics should go close.
Catena Zapata’s form figures at Dundalk are7131. The latest of those wins came here in February (1m) from 7lb lower. Back to form when a length fifth of 11 at the Curragh in June. He wasn’t well placed in a steadily run race that day so did well to finish as close as he did. A better run race will suit the 4-year-old and he’s one to be positive about back here.
Saraqael is the most interesting of the fourteen runners on his handicap/all-weather debut. The 3-year-old handled the soft ground very effectively when winning a Galway maiden 16-days ago. The extended mile looked a bare minimum that day and there should be more to come over today’s distance. Looks nicely treated and if he handles the surface (half-brother won at Chelmsford) should go there or thereabouts.
Verdict: The return to C&D could see the well handicapped Bowerman bounce back to his best. Eighty Eight, Snag It, Catena Zapata and Saraqael all come into the race in better form than Bowerman and have strong claims in a good race.
4:10 – One Racing Mourne Handicap – 6f
Harry’s Bar is a standing dish around here with form figures of 11321411. Carried 10-5 to win here last month (5f). He’s got 5lb more to carry today but he had a bit in hand the last day and its fair to say he’s Group level sprinter on the synthetics and will be tough to beat despite his welterweight.
Strong Johnson has yet to win on the all-weather and maybe better over 5f. However, there was plenty to like about his 2 ¾ lengths 3rd of 9 to Big Gossey at the Curragh (5f) on his stable debut and belated seasonal return 9-days ago. Arcanears isn’t badly treated on his first run on the all-weather since December. The three-time C&D winner gets the first-time blinkers and must come into consideration
Final Voyage was a five-time winner on the all-weather for previous trainer James Tate. Made nice debut for Johnny Murtagh when a 2-length 5th of 17 at Cork (7f) in April. First run since Cork and all his successes have come over further than 6f. He should win races for his new yard, but I’m not sure about the drop back to 6f.
The biggest danger to Harry’s Bar could come from stablemate Dream Today. The 7-year-old hasn’t been in much form on turf this season but he’s back on the all-weather for the first time since winning over C&D in December off today’s mark (Arcanears 2 ¼ lengths back in 4th). At his best over 6f when coming off a strong pace. He should get his ideal pace set up here.
Verdict: Despite his big weight Harry’s Bar is a worthy favourite and the one to beat. Stablemate Dream Today should get the race run to suit and looks each way value at 14/1.
Betting Advice:
Dundalk
4:10 – 1pt each way – Dream Today – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places).
4:40 – 1pt win – Saraqael – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 0.5pts win – Bowerman – 22/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John