Hi all,
It’s Derby Day with Flat racing’s ‘blue riband’ race scheduled to get underway at 1.30pm to avoid a clash with the FA Cup final.
This year’s race is as fascinating as we have seen in recent years and has very open look to it. It’s just a shame that the threat of chaos before the race will spoil it.
It’s an eight race at Epsom this afternoon and ITV will be covering all eight races live this afternoon. The first two on the main channel and the other six on ITV4. After the Derby itself the card lack quality but if you like handicaps, like me, your in for a treat.
The best of the handicaps is the Aston Martin Dash (3.20). This year’s renewal which has £100,0000 in guaranteed prize money will see a maximum field of 20 racing downhill over fastest 5f in the sport.
Epsom Derby Day
Kudos to Epsom Clerk Of The Course Andrew Cooper it was a quick ground at Epsom for Oaks Day. I thought he might overwater the track, but he didn’t. Mind you it didn’t help my selections who probably didn’t like the fast ground. Be aware though 5mm will be going on overnight. Hopefully the sun will be out again to dry it out. If not I could be in trouble.
12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) – 1m ½ f
If pace does, as the American’s say, win the race then we could see it in play in the first. There looks to be only one guaranteed front runner in the field in Marie’s Diamond. Granted the 7-year-old isn’t the horse he once was and has plenty to find on OR’s. However, he showed last time when a neck 2nd of 13 to Marhaba The Champ at York that he retains plenty of ability. If Hollie Doyle can get the fractions right, he’ll outrun his odds.
1:30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) – 1m 4f
I previewed the race in Thursday’s column. I’m still happy to take on Auguste Rodin and Military Order. If they win, they win.
It could be a day for the romantics with Frankie Dettori’s last ride in an Epsom Derby Arrest being a winning one.
Irish challengers White Birch and Sprewell looks better propositions. The former was runner-up in the Dante and if he handles the track and breaks well is my main fancy.
Sprewell improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning a Group 3 at Leopardstown earlier this month. A quietly progressive colt, he’s open to further improvement for the step up to the Derby distance.
2:10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m ½ f
Prosperous Voyage won the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes last season and heads the ratings. Probably didn’t appreciate very soft ground in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on reappearance. The favourite and the the one to beat.
Potapova and Roman Mist were separated by ½ length when second and third in last year’s race. Potapova went on to win a Sandown Group 3 last season but was found to have had an irregular heartbeat when pulling up in a Goodwood Listed race won by Roman Mist last month. She’s likely to bounce back here and will give the favourite plenty to think about if she does. That said I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the claims of Roman Mist either.
Shaara looked a filly who could do well as a 4-year-old when winning a Listed race at Yarmouth last September. Not as good on either start since including when well behind Prosperous Voyage in the Dahlia Stakes on her return to action. Questions to answer but not without claims if returning to her best and the yard had two fillies win here on Friday.
2:45 – Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap (Class 3) – 5f
A new race for the day. As the 3-year-old sprinters get to race down the fastest 5f in flat racing.
Can To Can seemed to relish the fitting of the first time blinkers when winning at Newcastle 25 days ago. She’s been hit by a 10lb rise in the weights but is going the right way and should go close.
Jm Jungle’s ½ length 2nd of 18 at York 15 days ago is solid. He’s up 4lb but in good form and must be high on the shortlist.
Miss Brazen an impressive winner at Beverley two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when a 2 ¾ length 6th of 18 in that York race last time. Gets 5lb from Jm Jungle and is interesting with Tom Marquand booked.
Grace Angel, was12th of 18 in the same York race, is just 6lb higher than winning at Redcar 12 days ago. She’s not discounted given her present vein of form.
3:20 – Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
There should be plenty of pace on here and it looks be either side of the track. My five strong shortlist is:
Live In The Moment is on a 16 long losing run and was 8th in this race 12 months ago. He ran well when a short head 2nd of 16 at Doncaster (6f) 14 days ago. A 3lb rise in the weight makes things tougher and he’s up a couple of notches in class.
Clarendon House was back to his best when a 3 length 5th of 13 to Regional at York 16 days ago. The 5-year-old first run for 6 months, and he should strip much fitter here and is a big player.
Ancient Times who won his first two starts (5f) last season, shaped like he needed his first start for 8 months when a 1 ¾ length 4th of 8 at Newmarket 14 days ago. This is a big opportunity for his 7lb apprentice Kaiya Fraser who is on the horse for the first time.
Mokaatil won this race in 2021 and was a 2 ½ length fourth in last year’s race. Down the field on his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood in April. The cheekpieces left off the day are back on here and the 8-year-old can never be ruled out over C&D that suits.
Mountain Peak is a useful handicap sprinter on his day. The 8-year-old was beaten just a head in this race 12 months ago (3lb higher today) before going on to win a twenty runner 5f handicap at Ascot (1lb lower today). Last of 13 to Regional at York on his seasonal return and better is expected from the 8-year-old.
3:55 – Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Balance Of Play shaped with plenty of promise when an improved neck 2nd of 8 on his seasonal return at Salisbury (7f) last month. The winner and third have gone in since so the form look solid and an opening handicap mark of 81 looks workable.
Fox Journey improved to make a winning handicap debut over the distance at Newmarket 16 days ago. Up 9lb but is improving and the yard win this in 2015.
Torito won a Nottingham novice on his seasonal return in April and improved again when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 6 at Sandown 18 days ago. A half-brother to the yard’s smart filly Journey he’s probably capable of better but he vulnerable off a mark of 95.
4:30 – Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Caius Chorister improved for the step up in to handicap company last season winning five times including two over C&D, before finishing runner-up in the Melrose Handicap at York The 4-year-old made an encouraging return to action when 2nd of 8 here (1m 2f) in April. The return to quicker ground and 1m 4f will suit. Ryan Moore 6-17 +20.33 for the yard has been booked and has a favourites chance. Likley to get the run of the race out in front and will be tough to pass if she does.
Sheer Rocks returned from a 7 month absence and gelding operation to win at Ascot 21 days ago. Nudged up 2lb for his Ascot success but Harry Davies takes off 3lb which negates the weight rise. It was soft last time but his best form last season came on quicker ground so he should be fine on the ground.
Max Mayhem was twice a winner on the turf when trained by Joseph O’Brie. The 5-year-old made a winning seasonal reappearance/stable debut in the Roseberry Handicap at Kempton (1m 3f) in April. Up 4lb but maybe capable of better still for the step up to 1m 4f.
Sea King, a useful middle distance handicapper last season, was a respectable 5 length 2nd of 9 at Kempton 10-days ago. The addition of the first time cheekpieces makes the 4-year-old of interest but stable jockey Luke Morris heads to Doncaster rather than come here.
5:05 – JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Mr Wagyu won this race 12 months ago from 2lb lower and also won a valuable handicap at the Curragh in July. Two low key starts in April but much better when a 3 length length 7th of 21 to Bielsa at York 17-days ago. It’s worth noting all his all his fifteen career wins have come in June & July – 15 wins from 30 runs 50% +68.92 24 places 80%. His record outside those two months is – 0 wins from 43 runs 8 places 18.6%. The handicapper has started to give 8-year-old a chance and he’s working his way back to winning form.
Haymaker bounced back to winning ways for a return to quicker ground at Windsor 12 days ago. The runner-up won the last at Epsom yesterday, so the form looks solid and even off a 4lb higher mark looks set for another bold run.
Probe has certainly improved for the switch to the Jennie Candlish yard winning at Wolverhampton before finishing runner-up to the very progressive Orazio at Newmarket. The 5-year-old went one place better when winning a valuable handicap back at Newmarket (good to soft) 28 days ago. A fast pace suited him last time and he should get that here but 7lb on quicker ground would be slight concern here.
Apollo One ended a bit of a losing run when winning at Kempton in November. He returned from a 6 month absence with a solid 3 ½ length 3rd of 21 to Probe at Newmarket last month. Gets a handy 7lb pull in the weights with Probe today and this race has been the plan since that run.
Badri has had a good year already winning three times and wasn’t disgraced when a 2 ½ length 6th of 21 to Bielsa at York last time. Might prefer slightly easier ground but should be there or thereabouts once more with Hollie Doyle booked for the bang inform Ruth Carr yard.
Betting Advice:
I got the going badly wrong yesterday so consequently it was a poor Oaks Day. Despite the overnight watering I’m going to go with good ground horses on Saturday.
Epsom
A cracking afternoon at Epsom which means I don’t need to look elsewhere for today’s selections.
12:50 – Marie’s Diamond – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:30 – White Birch – 1pt win – 14/1 @ William Hill and Sprewell – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
2:10 – Shaara – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:45 – Can To Can – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Miss Brazen – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
3:20 – Mountain Peak – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Clarendon House – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Ladbrokes and Mokaatil – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:05 – Apollo One – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power.
Cheers
John