Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at day two of the Dante Festival.
York’s Dante Festival – Day 2
The Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (3:35) gives the colts the opportunity to stake their claims for a tilt at next month’s Derby. Last year Desert Crown won the race before going on to success at the Derby at Epsom.
The other feature race at York this afternoon is the Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (2:25). There’s some good supporting card of races including the Sky Bet Hambleton Handicap (3:00).
Just like Wednesday ITV are covering five of York’s seven races live this afternoon. In today’s main piece I’m looking at the two Group 2 races on the card.
Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (3:35)
On paper this looks the strongest of the Derby Trials we’ve seen so far, and the winner will likely be made favourite for the Derby. Twelve were left in the race at Tuesday’s final declarations and the bookies were still going 4/1 the field on Tuesday lunchtime which shows how open to the race is.
The Foxes won a steadily run Royal Lodge Stakes, Flying Honours ¾ length back in third, last September. A solid 1 ¼ length 2nd of 7 in Craven Stakes (1m) on return and is bred to appreciate the step up to 1m 2f.
Flying Honours is bred to appreciate 1m 2f and further as 3-year-old, so he did well to do as well as he did as a juvenile. Improved to win the Group 3 Zetland Stakes at Newmarket last October. Not much to find with The Foxes on last season’s Royal Lodge form and a big player.
Epictetus runner-up to Auguste Rodin in last year’s Futurity. He didn’t need to improve when a workmanlike winner of Epsom’s Blue Riband Trial last month.
Canberra Legend, a winner at Newcastle in February improved again to win the Listed bet365 Feilden Stakes (1m 1f). The son of Australia still looked a bit raw but really hit top stride inside the final furlong. York’s more galloping track will suit as will the step up in trip.
Sir Michael Stoute won last year’s race with subsequent Derby here Desert Crown and he saddle Wood Ditton winner Passenger. The son of Ulysses is an exciting colt who’s open to plenty of improvement.
Continuous, trained by Aidan O’Brien, doesn’t hold an Epsom Derby entry. Clearly has to be considered but given the trainer doesn’t really target the meeting wouldn’t be for me.
White Birch a winner of his second start as a juvenile at Dundalk in November. The son of Ulysses showed he had improved from two to three when winning last month’s Group 3 Ballysx Stakes at Leopardstown. It was heavy when he won last time but there’s no reason why he can’t be just as effective on a sounder surface.
Dante Verdict: What a race this promises to be. Who knows how good the supplemented Passenger could be? Canberra Legend should relish York’s galloping track and is open to improvement. Both Flying Honours and The Foxes bring strong juvenile form to the race with the latter bred to do better as a 3-year-old over 1m 4f. White Birch seems to have gone a bit under the radar since his Ballysax success, but he could be the value in the race at 10/1 & bigger.
Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (2:25)
Lancashire Oaks winner Free Wind is likely to be strong favourite despite dropping back to 1m 2 ½ f. Her two nearest market rivals Toskana Belle & Aristia must give her 3lb here. We haven’t seen her since her Haydock success but its possible she will be middle distance Group 1 winner this season. The drop back to 1m 2 ½ shouldn’t be a problem as she doesn’t lack pace.
Toskana Belle won the German Oaks last year and must be respected on her stable debut for Roger Varian. I’m still waiting for the trainer to really hit top gear but maybe he will this week.
Aristia runner-up to Nashwa in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood in July went one better the following month when winning the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville.
Stay Alert looked a progressive filly when making it 3 from 6 in a Group 3 at Newbury last September. Probably best not to judge her poor run when last of 14 behind Emily Upjohn in the Group 1 Fillies & Mares at Ascot on Champions Day. The ground was too soft for her that day and I can see her doing better on a sounder surface.
Verdict: Free Wind doesn’t lack pace so the drop back to 1m 2f shouldn’t be an inconvenience. Could be up to Group 1 level this season and is the one to beat. Stay Alert is likely capable of better this season and can set the favourite most to do back on a good ground.
1:50 – Lindum York Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Whenthedealinsdone bounced back to winning ways at Ascot last September. Not knocked about on Goodwood seasonal return 13-days ago when the run was needed. Has a habit of being slowly away which he can’t afford here over 5f. Big Chance if he gets off on level terms with Buick booked.
Korker won a C&D handicap at this meeting 12 months ago, from 5lb lower. Down the field in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance 12-days ago. Better expected with that run under his belt and back in handicap company. Another who can start slowly but if all the cards fall right is competitively weighted.
Designer won a C&D handicap last August and returned from a 6 month absence with a solid enough 2 ¾ lengths 4th of 16 to Happy Romance in a Bath Listed race last month. in with a chance over a C&D that suits.
Regional less exposed than most, the 5-year-old failed to add to his two career wins in 2022 but went close off today’s mark twice last summer including a 1 ½ length 3rd of 28 in the Stewards Cup (6f) at Goodwood. Might be better over further and one below par effort came here (6f) last August but still respected with the yard in form.
Illusionist returned from a 10 month layoff with a solid 1 ¼ length 3rd of 10 to Hyperfocus at Ripon. The 6-year-old should be competitive of his present mark. Four of his five best RPR’s have come at York (5f) on soft or good to soft ground. He can win another sprint handicap, but he does need the leaders to go hard up front and some ease in the ground.
Alligator Alley completed a tapeta hat trick in January and was 4th in this race last year. A previous C&D winner, his optimum conditions are 5f, a sound surface and a strong pace to chase all three things which he should get today. Stablemate Nomadic Empire returned to winning ways in Bahrain in December. Not the most consistent of handicap sprinters but he was on a going day when a 1 ¾ length 4th of 22 here (5 ½ f) last August, from 3lb higher. Handicapped to be competitive and will the good ground.
Verdict: I wouldn’t put anyone off Whenthedealinsdone who has solid claims provided he gets off an level terms with his rivals. I will be surprised if Regional cant win a sprint handicap this season. Illusionist goes very well here but the drying ground is a concern. Nomadic Empire isn’t the most consistent but on a going day he’s capable of winning this off his present mark.
3:00 – Sky Bet Hambleton Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Last time out winners Northern Express and Isla Kai must be respected, albeit the latter may prefer a slightly easier surface. Arguably the most competitive race on the card and there are plenty on my long list.
Northern Express ridden more handily than usual proved his stamina for a mile when running out a decisive winner of the Thirsk Hunt Cup. A previous winner here over 7f, a 3lb rise in the weights for his Thirsk win isn’t harsh and given he’s arguably a better horse on a sound surface he’s capable of winning again. Stablemate Brunch will prefer today’s ground better than the heavy ground he’s run on twice this season. He was a head 2nd of 13 to Cruyff Turn in last years race and is 1lb lower here.
Last year’s winner Cruyff Turn looks to have been aimed at the race once more. He finished a promising 8 ½ length 8th in the Thirsk Hunt in his seasonal return. Today’s better ground will suit him well and he’s now 1lb below last year’s winning mark.
Tropez Power improved to win twice on the all-weather over the winter. Needs to prove he’s as good on turf but not weighted out of this if he can. A sound surface and a speed favouring track should be ideal for the strong travelling 4-year-old.
Assessment is the least exposed horse in the field and the 4-year-old looked useful when making a winning return from a 10 month lay off at Kempton last month. A gelding operation seems to have had the desired effect and a 6lb rise in weight’s shouldn’t stop this improving sort.
There’s a decent handicap pot in C&D winner Blue For You this season. He’s well suited to a sound surface but may need his first start 215-days.
You can’t rule out two previous course winners Eilean Dubh and Another Richard. The former is 2-2 over C&D and wasn’t disgraced when a 5 ½ length 6th of 15 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time. He’s been dropped 2lb since and much prefers faster turf to the soft ground he had last time.
Another Richard finished runner-up in a C&D handicap last August a race he subsequently won on an appeal. Got the run of the race out in front when winning at Newcastle 13-days ago on his first start for 8 months. Up in Class and 3lb higher but the 4-year-old should give his running once more.
Toshizou has run well on his last two starts and he was a respectable 3 ½ length 4th of 17 in a similar race at Newmarket (1m 1f) last time. He looks on a workable mark, but it looks like he needs to be dropped out and come with as late a run as possible. Those exaggerated waiting tactics require a pace collapse up front and luck in the run.
Verdict: I could put four or five in this race and not find the winner. Favourite Assessment is open to more improvement than most in field. But at the price I can happily let him win. Last year’s winner Cruyff Turn is top of the shortlist. Closely followed by recent Thirsk winner Northern Express and his stablemate and last year’s runner-up Brunch. Eilean Dubh bids to make 3-3 over C&D and thr return to a sounder surface will suit him perfectly.
4:10 – British EBF 40th Anniversary Westow Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
Rocket Rodney won twice as a juvenile including a Sandown Listed race (5f) last July and finished runner-up to Treasure Trove, giving 7lb to the winner, in a Listed 5f race over C&D last August. Looks a speedy sort and has a favourites chance.
Walbank won over C&D last May before finishing a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 10 to The Ridler in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Not seen out since finishing a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 8 to Trillium in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood last August (Rocket Rodney 2nd). Remains unexposed after just four starts and high on the shortlist.
Changeofmind broke the 2yo course record at Chester when making all to win on racecourse debut last June. The colt returned from a 10 month lay off to win at Catterick 22-days ago and looks a sprinter capable of further improvement.
Pillow Talk won a Listed race over C&D at this meeting last year but hasn’t been out since finishing a 3 ¾ lengths 6th of 10 to The Ridler in Norfolk Stakes. Could be capable of better as a 3-year-old and not discounted on return to action. In the same ownership Silent Words, the choice of retained jockey Danny Tudhope, a winner at Newcastle on racecourse debut improved again for the switch to the grass when a head 2nd of 6 at Hamilton 11-days ago. She’s an improving filly who has race fitness on her side and likely in the mix.
Verdict: Rocket Rodney and Walbank were the best of these as juveniles. Of that pair I just have a preference for Walbank who won over C&D last May. Trainer Kevin Ryan had two winners at York yesterday and he could have another in Silent Words.
4:45 – Frank Whittle Partnership EBFstallions.com Maiden Stakes (Class 2) – 6f
Just three of the 11 runners have raced before. Cuban Thunder ran green when a promising 1 ¼ length 2nd of 7 to Blue Storm on racecourse debut at Newmarket last month. The step up to 6f should suit the colt who looks the one to beat.
Aidan O’Brien brings over Emperor of Rome who finished runner-up at Dundalk last month. The son of No Nay Never needed the run that day and the cheekpieces are applied today. The step up to 6f should suit and he will surely win a race.
Of the unraced juveniles the Charlie Appleby trained Impressive Act cost 650,000gns as a yearling seems likely to go well as could the Kevin Ryan trained colt Varden. He’s speedily bred and the trainer won this race in 2019.
Verdict: Cuban Thunder has racecourse experience on his side and is worthy short-priced favourite. However, he faces some expensively purchased juveniles making their racecourse debut including Impressive Act. Kevin Ryan juveniles need respecting York and market support for Varden should be heeded.
5:20 – Collective Green Energy Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 4f
A tricky 3-year-old only handicap concludes day two of the Dante Festival
Land Legend improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning on handicap debut at Newcastle last time. Now 11lb higher on turf debut, should be fine on grass. However, the step up to 1m 4f should bring out further improvement in the gelding.
Rathgar, an improver on all three starts last season, was a 5 length 2nd of 6 on handicap debut at Newmarket 11-days ago. York’s flatter track should suit the colt who should also be open to further improvement for the step up to 1m 4f.
Torre Del Oro improved for the step up to 1m 4f when winning on handicap debut at Wolverhampton last month. Just second start on grass and is 10lb higher now but the colt is going the right way and very much in the mix.
Chesspiece is bred to improve for the step up to 1m 4f for the first time. The colt overcame inexperience to win on his racecourse debut at Newcastle (1m 2f) in November and wasn’t disgraced when 3rd of 5 to Derby favourite Military Order on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury last month. Interesting on handicap debut with Ryan Moore booked.
Knockbrex won a decent heavy ground maiden, two future winners behind, at Pontefract (1m 2f). Runner-up at Haydock stepped up to an extended 1m 3f on good to firm 12-days ago. He seems ground versatile and could be capable of better on handicap debut for a yard that has a great record in the race.
Verdict: I’m drawn Land Legend who’s making his turf debut but is open to improvement for the step up to 1m 4f. Another capable of further the step up to 1m 4f is Chesspiece and he’s respected with Ryan Moore booked. Mark Johnston saddled the winner of this race four times from 2015 and his son Charlie could another win with Knockbrex.
Betting Advice:
Like yesterday I’m sending out the day’s preview early to allow you to digest what has turned out to be a long main piece of work. Although she wasn’t an official selection, as I concentrated on the handicaps, hopefully some of you were Azure Blue in the Duke Of York Stakes.
Today’s betting advice will be with you on Thursday morning. I’m off to York today so Friday’s preview is unlikely to be as long as Wednesday & Thursdays.
Cheers
John