Hi all,
I love York’s Dante Meeting and I will be either there tomorrow or on Thursday for the Dante Stakes. For me it the best of the spring flat festivals and you won’t see such competitive racing until Royal Ascot.
ITV4 are covering five races live from York and one from Newton Abbot this afternoon. Inside today’s preview I’m looking at the two big York races first before looking at the rest of the card. As ever today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
York’s Dante Festival – Day 1
It looks like it will be good ground for the day one of the Dante Festival which is good news. The ground was awful at Chester last week and we want to see the top flat races run on a sound surface.
Both the Derby & Oaks pictures are muddled. But over the next two days, York’s two Classic Trials will hopefully make things a bit clearer. Today it’s the turn of the Oaks hopefuls and eight have been declared for this Group 3 contest.
Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (3:35)
The best of these on juvenile form is Novakai. She sets a high standard on her length 2nd of 8 to Commissioning in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last time. The daughter of Lope De Vega is bred to improve for the step up to 1m 2f +. On form she should be favourite rather than the 7/1 she was on Monday.
Infinite Cosmos is the bookies early bird favourite. However, her favouritism status is based on potential than what she’s achieved on the track. There’s no doubt she will be capable of a lot better, but Newmarket seasonal reappearance win isn’t anywhere close to the form so far achieved by Novakai.
Gather Ye Rosebuds’ Newbury maiden (soft) success last month on racecourse debut was better form than Infinite Cosmos’ Newmarket success. The daughter of Zoffany despite being slowly away and a bit keen in the early stages was far too good for her rivals last time. She’s clearly an exciting prospect and if she’s a good on a sound surface, as soft will make them all go.
Midnight Mile won her first two juvenile starts including the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket. She ended last season with a solid 5 length 4th of 14 to Meditate in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland on her final start. Starts her 3-year-old season with the potential for better and should stay 1m 2f.
Sea Of Roses has some solid juvenile form to her name and she was runner-up in Group 3 at Saint Cloud last month.
Empress Wu’s dam’s full sister Madame Chiang won this for connections in 2014. Empress Wu looked a potential Group performer when winning on racecourse debut in November, but Madame Chiang was at her best on soft ground.
Verdict: Infinite Cosmos and Gather Ye Rosebuds are two fillies with plenty of potential. The former could be an Oaks winner in waiting but her from so far doesn’t warrant her to be as short in the betting as she is. Gather Ye Rosebuds faces different ground than at Newbury on her debut but if, and it’s a big if, she handles it can win. Novakai juvenile form entitles her to be close to favouritism. You also couldn’t rule out Midnight Mile who’s capable of better as 3-year-old.
1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes Stakes (3:00)
The most valuable race of the day with £82,230 on offer to the winner of the Group 2 contest.
Highfield Princess won this last year before going onto win three Group 1 sprints. She did have the benefit of a run 12 months ago and has a 5lb penalty to carry this time around. There will be other targets for her this season, and she might be fully wound up today.
Australian challenger The Astrologist finished a head 2nd of 15 in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan last time. He’s got a few pounds to find on OR’s with several of these. However, we know what Australian sprinters are capable of Ryan Moore takes the ride.
Creative Force finished one place in front of Highfield Princess in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at the end of last season. The 5-year-old has race fitness on his side and beat three rivals at Haydock on Saturday. It’s a quick turnaround but there are no issues with his well-being.
Marshman posted a career best when 1 ¼ length 2nd of 12 to Noble Style in last season’s Gimcrack Stakes over C&D. The 3-year-old made a winning seasonal reappearance in a Group 3 at Chantilly last month. Three-year-old’s don’t often run in the race, just eight since 20008, but the last two did finish runner-up so he’s not discounted.
Azure Blue is a big strong filly who’s improved physically over the winter. The filly completed a Newmarket hat trick in a Listed race (6f) 11-days ago. She defied a penalty to win that day and is going the right way. I think she could be a Group 1 filly this season and she can get into the money provided this race doesn’t come too quickly.
Verdict: How fit will Highfield Princess be on seasonal return? If she’s 95% fit, she probably wins anything less and her rivals have a chance of causing an upset. The Astrologist and Creative Force have fitness on their side and will make the mare work for her victory. The sole 3-year-old in the field Marshman comes into serious consideration after his seasonal reappearance win at Chantilly. Azure Blue is an improving sprinter going the right way and could be a Group 1 filly, Despite a quick return to action she’s my tentative pick.
1:30 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
William Haggas has won this race for the last two years and he can complete a race hat trick with La Yakel. An improving middle distance handicapper last season, he failed to land the hat trick when a 5 length 4th of 16 in the valuable Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket. Capable of improvement as a 4-year-old and high on the shortlist.
Real Dream is vying for favouritism with the Haggas horse. The 4-year-old won a Doncaster maiden last June but then missed the rest of the season. He returned from a 11 month absence to win on handicap debut at Kempton 14 days ago. A better run race would have suited him last time and a 5lb rise is more than workable.
Thundering was beaten by 1 ½ lengths by Real Dream at Doncaster last season and finished a ¾ length 2nd of 16 in a valuable C&D handicap at the Ebor Festival. That latter effort makes him fairly handicapped, and he needed last month’s Ripon seasonal return. Stablemate Forza Orta was a length 2nd of 11 in last year’s race and posted a career best on RPR’s when winning a C&D handicap last July. Needed his Thirsk reappearance (soft) and should give a good account back at venue and on ground that suits.
White Wolf looked an improving middle distance handicapper when finishing a short head 2nd of 13 in a Meydan handicap (1m 2f) in January. Best to forgive his run in a Group 2 over 1m 4f their last time and he’s of interest back in handicap company in the first time cheekpieces.
Verdict: Stablemate’sThundering & Forza Orta have solid C&D form but I’m with the less exposed potential improvers La Yakel, Real Dream and White Wolf. I wanted to back La Yakel at 5/1 but 100/30 I can let him win. At the prices I’m going with White Wolf and hoping the application of the first time cheekpieces have the desired effect.
2:25 – Churchill Tyres Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Gis A Sub finished runner-up in the Gimcrack over C&D in 2021 but wouldn’t be the first juvenile to struggle off lofty marks in his second season. He showed up well for a long way when a 5 length 8th of 21 to Probe at Newmarket on reappearance. Dropped 2lb since and a big run could be forthcoming from what looks a handy mark.
Three time C&D winner Gulliver isn’t the horse he once was, no win since October 2020 but he showed when a length 3rd of 21 in this race last year that he remains capable of winning a handicap like this when all the cards fall right. He’s 8lb lower than 12 months ago and respected if getting the strong pace, he needs.
Khanjar won on seasonal return last year and at Haydock in September looking on the latter occasion like he was an improving 6f sprinter. Didn’t give his running when a well beaten 9/2 favourite in the Ayr Gold Cup. Lightly raced, he could easily bounce back as a 4-year-old.
Gisburn was winless last season, but the 4-year-old shaped on several occasions, including when an unlucky in the run 3 length 6th of 19 over C&D in October, that he can win a handicap like this when everything falls right. He ran with promise when 4th of 19 on his seasonal return at Doncaster but was last of 15 at Newbury 26 days ago. Not the most consistent but a bounce back wouldn’t surprise.
Verdict: Gisburn lacks consistency and wasn’t on a going day last time butcould win this if all the cards fall right but. Khanjar was beaten favourite in the Ayr Gold Cup but can bounce back as 4-year-old. Gulliver doesn’t win very often these days, but he was third in this race last year and is 8lb lower now. The forecast strong pace will suit the 9-year-old and he should be finishing off strongly. Gis A Sub is down to a winnable mark but will face pace pressure up front.
4:10 – Conundrum Hr Consulting Handicap (Class 3) – 7f
Chuzzlewit won an Ayr novice (7f) on his third career start in September and returned to action with an improved 3 ¼ length 5th of 11 in Listed race at Newcastle last month. Capable of better now going handicapping for the first time.
Dark Thirty, a winner on his racecourse debut last season and 4 length 3rd of 5 to Isaac Shelby in a Group 2, hasn’t really kicked on but his 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 at Doncaster 10 days ago was a step back in the right direction. More exposed than some of his rivals but not out of it.
Coco Jack was a consistent juvenile who won three times last season. Has race fitness on his side and should give his running but he’s vulnerable to any improving rivals in the line-up.
New Endeavour got off the mark on nursery debut at Kempton last September was a solid enough 5 length 5th of 19 to Galeron in the Goffs ‘Million’ at the Curragh (7f) on his final start.
Ramazan, twice a winner last season and ended last season with a strong finishing length 3rd of 19 to Galeron in the Goffs ‘Million’ at the Curragh on his final juvenile start. Gelded at the end of last season and needs respecting, for a yard successful in this three times since 2011.
Zu Run, one of the least exposed in the field, got off the mark at the second attempt at Chelmsford last August and ran just as well in defeat under a penalty when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 11 to Lord Uhtred at Kempton the following month. Must be respected on seasonal return/handicap debut.
Verdict: Coco Jack and Dark Thirtyhave solid claims but they face a number of less exposed potential improvers in Chuzzlewit, Zu Run and Ramazan.
4:45 – British EBF 40th Anniversary Novice Stakes (Class 2) – 5f
Not a betting race for me. Just one of the eight runners has run before, but to be fair Mashadi does set a high standard after his head 2nd of 3 to a useful sort in One Point at Newmarket 10-days ago. If any of the newcomers is to win, they will have to be useful, that’s for sure.
Aidan O’Brian runs a well-bred No Nay Never colt The Caribbean. Kevin Ryan has saddled the winner in 2015 & 2022 so his runner Mon Na Slieve, a son of Exceed And Excel needs respecting especially as he should appreciate the drying ground.
Kylian’s dam won as a juvenile on racecourse debut and the Karl Burke trained colt is bred to be speedy. Brave Empire cost 450,000gns as yearling and is his dam won over 5f on her racecourse debut.
Verdict: Mashadi is the only one of the eight runners to have raced before. The unraced juveniles will have to be decent to beat him. It will be interesting to see who is backed in the pre race betting.
5:15 – Stuey Weston & Friends Getting Out Handicap (Class 4) – 1m 4f
Another competitive big field handicap concludes the day one on the Knavesmire.
Kihavah won this race last year from 2lb lower. He’s been running with credit over hurdles recently and must be high on the shortlist with Tom Marquand booked.
Saturn Five, a Punchestown maiden winner for Joseph O’Brien last autumn, likely needed his first start for Charlie Fellowes when a 10 ¼ length 7th of 15 at Newbury (heavy) 25 days ago. Back on better ground here and is on a workable mark.
True Courage won twice on the all-weather last September and gets the first time cheekpieces applied today. Competitively weighted if ready to roll for the first time for 198-days.
Real Terms proved to be a consistent middle distance handicapper in 2022 winning three times. Ran with promise on her seasonal return when 6th of 14 at Musselburgh 17 days ago and should be in the mix.
Strawman won at Redcar (1m 2f) last June off today’s mark and was an encouraging 2 length 3rd of 8 at Ripon on seasonal reappearance last month. Stamina for 1m 4f yet to be proven but is on a winnable mark with Hollie Doyle an eyecatching jockey booking.
Billy No Mates stays further than 1m 4f and looks to be heading towards peak fitness after his 4 ¼ length 4th of 6 at Doncaster 11-days ago. Has been dropped 2lb since and handicapped to go close for a yard inform.
Sea Grey looked to have improved when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 13 to a stablemate at Haydock (1m 2f) 18 days ago. Lightly raced and should be in the mix if staying 1m 4f.
Verdict: The least valuable race on the card but as tricky a race as there is on the card. Last year’s winner Kihavah is respected once more. Saturn Five looks capable of better this season. Strawman and Billy No Mates have both dropped down to good marks and should give their backers a good run for their money.
Wednesday’s betting advice will be with you tomorrow morning. Sending out my race previews early enables you to digest today’s offerings well in advance.
Cheers
John