Hi all
I wasn’t going to put anymore selections until Saturday but there’s a cracking card at Cork this evening which I couldn’t resist. The highlight of a seven-race card is the Group 3 Munster Oaks (7.10). The supporting races include the Listed Midsummer Sprint Stakes (6:40) and the Cork Derby (7:40). The latter race is handicap and there’s €26,550 on offer to the winner.
Cork
6:40 – Midsummer Sprint Stakes (Listed) – 5f
Gustavus Weston won a Group 2 and Group 3 at the Curragh last season and is the one to beat on official ratings. However, both those successes came over 6f and he’s yet to find his best form on two runs so far this season.
1pt win – Gustavus Weston – 7/2 @ Bet365
7:10 – Munster Oaks Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f
Ger Lyons won this last year and was also successful in 2019. He saddles two of the ten declared runners: Thunder Kiss & Yaxeni. The first named is the mount of stable jockey Colin Keane and looks the stable pick. However, the latter can’t be totally dismissed as she did win a Listed race last time and has only 4lb to find with her stablemate on official ratings.
Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner five times since 2014 and has two runners in Lily Pond & Kiss You Later. The latter is going the right way and got off the mark at the 5th attempt when winning a Curragh maiden last month. Lily Pond the mount of Ryan Moore does look the pick. The daughter of Galileo won on her racecourse debut at Dundalk in April and then improved further when 4 length 2nd of 6 in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes at Naas last month. She shaped last time like she would improve for the step up to 1m 4f.
Forbearance won three times in 2021, including a Group 3 at Newmarket on her final start. The 5-year-old was 5 lengths behind Thunder Kiss at York on her seasonal return last month. However, that run came over 1m 2 ½ f and her best form has come over today’s trip. If the ground is on the quick side of good (2-2 on good to firm) she’s a serious contender. The 12/1 looks good each value if the rain stays away from Cork. The 12/1 available looks value, if the rain stays away.
Rosscarbery made it 3-3 since switching to the Paddy Twomey yard when easily winning a Roscommon handicap under top-weight last time. A rapidly improving filly she looks worth her place in this company. Her last two wins have come on soft ground but if she’s as effective on a quicker surface won’t be far away.
1pt win – Forbearance – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
7:40 – Cork Derby (Premier Handicap) – 1m 4f
You can make a case for most of the ten runners in the Cork Derby. My pick is the Johnny Murtagh trainer Safecracker. The 4-year-old returned to action with a good 1 length 3rd of 17 here (1m 2f) in April. He bounced back from a poor effort, on his first try at 1m 4f, when a 4-length 2nd of 17 to stablemate Mashhoor at the Curragh last time. Gets the addition of the first time tongue tie for another go at 1m 4f. Given he’s a half-brother to an Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs he should stay 1m 4f on an easy track like Cork.
1pt win – Safecracker – 11/4 @ Bet365
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John