Hi all,
The final day of Chester’s May Festival is with us, and it plays host to the most famous race run at the track the Tote Chester Cup (3:15).
Today’s card is also the competitive of the three days and the biggest one for me from a betting perspective. Besides the big handicap there’s a good supporting card of races including the Group 2 Huxley Stakes (2:40).
Not the best of Festival’s so far but I have left most of my selections until the final day. Indeed I have as many selections on Friday as I did on the first two days.
Chester May Festival – Day 3
It will be interesting to see if Chester gets the forecast 5mm of overnight rain. If it does it could be bordering on heavy for today’s Chester Cup. Should the rain not arrive, and we have a dry Friday the ground will dry out, but it could become sticky and probably just as stamina sapping if not more.
1:30 – CAA Stellar Earl Grosvenor Handicap (Class 2) – 7 ½ f
Boardman seem to be edging close to a win. He wasn’t best placed when a good 3 length 5th of 11 at Haydock last time. Twice a winner at Chester including C&D, six of his seven career wins have in May. He should get the strong pace he needs here and is down to a winnable mark.
Three time course winner Revich has also probably been aimed at this race and the 7-year-old stepped up on his seasonal return when a 4 ¾ length third of 10 at Newbury last time. Back to his last winning and should be fine on the testing ground.
Ffion doesn’t have the best of draws in stalls drawn 12 of 13 but her course figures are 5211. Although both wins have come at half a furlong shorter, she stays a mile and she’s likely to be in the mix with Hollie Doyle booked.
Red Mirage won this last year for Andrew Balding. Now with John Quinn, the 5-year-old makes his seasonal reappearance here from 2lb higher than when successful 12 months ago. Yet to race on soft ground but has won on good to soft and the gelding’s record when returning from a 121+ day layoff is a perfect 3-3.
2:05 – Precision Facades Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Savvy Victory a winner on seasonal return at Pontefract (heavy) in 2022 and bounced back to winning ways at Goodwood in August. Not disgraced when a 4 length 5th of 28 in the Cambridgeshire. Ran better than his 4 length 5th of 7 in listed race at Kempton last time suggests. Handles the ground and should go close with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
Groundbreaker won on seasonal return last season so goes well fresh. Proved steadily progressive last year and was gelded at the end of last season. Can do better as a 4-year-old but best form thus far has as come on a sound surface.
Baryshnikov was at his best in the first half of last season winning this race 12 months ago. That took his C&D form figures to 1141. Plenty of encouragement to be taken from his 5 length 3rd of 12 at Pontefract last time. He goes well on rain softened ground, is down to his last winning mark and should go close.
Cap Francais a winner on his seasonal return at Newmarket last year before finishing a 1 length 2nd of 7 in this 12 months ago. Not as good on three subsequent last season and was well down the field on his Kempton seasonal return last month. Now 6lb lower than 12 months ago and has a handy low draw if returning to form.
Pride Of America is a former C&D winner, won at this meeting last year. who returned from a 7 month lay off to win a Kempton handicap (1m 3f) in January. Not as good on two subsequent starts but could bounce back from his low draw and with a possible uncontested lead.
2:40 – Huxley Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Just the six runners but an intriguing enough contest.
Point Lonsdale, a Group 1 winner as juvenile, ran once as a 3-year-old but was back to winning ways in a Group 3 at the Curragh last month. He beat a race fit rival last that time and that one has has gone in again since. Capable of better with that run under his belt and the one to beat.
Mujtaba ended last season in fine form winning valuable handicaps at Doncaster and Newbury (heavy) on his final start of 2022. Could be capable of winning in Group company this season on this sort of ground.
Poker Face won on racecourse debut last September and completed the hat trick on handicap debut at Pontefract on his final start. Proved up to the step into pattern company when a 2 length 2nd of of 7 to Ottoman Fleet the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket on seasonal return last month.
Foxes Tales progressive as 3-year-old winning a Group 3 at Haydock. He failed to win last season but returned to action in good form finish third in the Winter Derby at Lingfield before winning a Listed race at Kempton last month. Two of his three turd wins have come on soft ground so he’s one to seriously consider.
3:15 – tote Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 2 ¼ f
A maximum field of 17 for Chester’s big race.
Call My Bluff has never been out of the places on his three Chester starts, finishing runner-up over C&D in September and third in the Plate 12 months ago. Ran well on his seasonal return when a 6 lengths 2nd of 10 to Novel Legend at Newbury on his seasonal return. Stays well, like plenty of juice in the ground and provided they go a decent gallop I can’t see him being out of the money.
Falcon Eight won this in 2021 and wasn’t well placed when a 5 length 5th in last year’s race. Now 1;b lower than last year and Ryan Moore booked and shouldn’t be far away once more provided the ground isn’t to testing.
Vino Victrix did well last season and finished a 3 ¼ length 2nd of 21 in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket. Better than he was able to show on heavy ground at Newbury on his seasonal return. Testing ground would be a concern, but I think he’s on a good mark if the ground was to dry out.
Zoffee won the Northumberland Plate (2m) at Newcastle in June and went close at Newmarket (1m 6f) on his next start. Ended last season with a 7 ¼ length 4th of 21 in the Cesarewitch. Likely been trained for this given he’s from a local yard but very soft ground would be a concern.
Metier, a smart 2m hurdler, at his best returned to the flat to win the November Handicap (heavy) at Doncaster. Struggled over hurdles during the winter but much better back the flat when a ½-length 2nd of 14 to Wise Eagle in the Queen’s Cup (1m 6f) at Musselburgh last time. The softer ground the better and he’s in with a chance if handling the track.
Emiyn finished third to Metier in last season’s November Handicap and made a promising return to action when 6 ¼ length 5th of 14 in the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh. Has run poorly at Thirsk since but he’s a previous C&D winner whose form figures at the track are 142421, who can’t be ruled out a venue that clearly suits.
Tritonic a winner on the flat at Goodwood (1m 4f) last October. A smart handicap hurdler he wasn’t at his best over timber this winter but there was more encouragement to be taken from his 7 length 4th of 20 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Aintree last time. First start beyond 1m 5 ½ f on the flat but should stay 2m+. He’s for the shortlist provided the ground isn’t to testing.
The final two handicaps on the card are not on ITV but both races provide betting opportunities.
4:20 – White Oak Apprentice Handicap (Class 4) – 1m 4 ½
By Your Side, trained by Gordon Elliott, looks well treated on his improved hurdles form back on the flat. A useful enough handicapper over shorter for Ed Dunlop last season. The 4-year-old won’t be far away if staying 1m 4f with Billy Loughnane in the saddle.
The Nu Form Way won over C&D last July on good to soft and bounced back to winning ways at Beverley (good to soft) 15-days ago. Up 3lb but Harry Davies has been booked and another big run should be forthcoming.
Two Brothers got off the mark at the 18th attempt on turf when winning a Beverley handicap (1m 4f) 23 days ago. He won by 5 ½ lengths that day so a 7lb rise in the weights isn’t insurmountable. Can the 5-year-old now kick on and follow up though. His stamina for further could be useful on what is likely stamina sapping ground.
Aqwaam improved to win a soft ground Galway Handicap last July. He hasn’t really kicked on from that success on subsequent starts but his 2 length 2nd of 6 to Matchless at Doncaster 6 days ago was a step back in the right direction and he’s becoming well treated. Although he may be better over a bit further has to be respected in the first time cheekpieces.
4:55 – tote Fantasy, Whos In Your Stable Chester Plate Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 2 ½ f
Top weight Novel Legend beat Call My Bluff by six lengths at Newbury (2m) last time. A 3lb penalty shouldn’t stop this progressive young stayer who relished the testing ground last time. The only negative is stall 14, but he will still be tough to beat.
But for the presence of the Novel Legend Justus would be a warm order for this race. He’s better drawn in stall 5. The 5-year-old a soft ground winner when trained in France made all to run out a comfortable winner of a Doncaster handicap (2m ½ f). A 3lb penalty means he remains well in at the weights and if the first time visor has the desired effect he could improve further. His trainer Ian Williams has five other runners in the race and the most interesting looks to be Zinc White who was progressive on the flat winning two soft ground handicaps in 2021. The 5-year-old hasn’t been seen for 561-days and is making his debut for the yard. It would be some training performance for him to win a race as competitive of this but its not impossible.
It’s Good To Laugh is a dual course winner and wasn’t disgraced when a 7 length 7th of 14 in last season’s Chester Cup. He’s not the easiest to win with but has dropped down to handy mark and the yard had a big handicap winner at Newmarket on Saturday.
The Predictor was a neck 2nd of 7 to Legendary Day at Ripon (It’s Good To Laugh 5th) 13 days ago. If he stays today’s 2m 2 ½ f he should be there or thereabouts off the same mark as last time.
Whitehaven goes well on soft ground, and he’s not badly treated on his best form of two seasons back when trained by Hughie Morrison. Now with Donald McCain he’s run poorly on his last two start over hurdles but returns from wind surgery here with the cheekpieces and tongue tie applied for the first time.
Betting Advice:
Chester
1:30 – Ffion – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Red Mirage – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:05 – Pride Of America – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:15 – Call My Bluff – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Vino Victrix – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:20 – The Nu Form Way – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:55 – Justus – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John