Hi all,
Chester’s three day May Meeting gets underway at the Roodee this afternoon and the ITV Racing cameras are covering five races live from the track. Inside today’s main piece I look ahead to the best of today’s action at Chester. In truth it’s a trappy card. Uncertainty on the weather front is not helping matters. Will the racecourse miss the heavy showers for example. If heavy showers do hit the racecourse, then the going will be softer than presently described.
Chester May Festival – Day 1
It’s currently good to soft at Chester but they had a fair bit of rain on Monday and there could be as much as 15mm between Tuesday & Thursday. Given the rain is going to be showery in nature it could be more or indeed less. I’m working on the assumption that the rain arrives and so it’s likely to be soft on Wednesday and maybe bordering heavy on Thursday.
Its not difficult to pass over the opening 2-year-old race the Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (1:30) from a betting perspective. Although Irish challenger and recent Dundalk scorer Parkside Boy is bred to be sharp and has a handy draw in stall 4.
2:05 – Tote £100K Guaranteed Placepot Every Day Handicap (Class 3) – 5f
It will be interesting to see how the positive low draw stats stand up on soft ground in this 5f contest.
Jer Batt looked a progressive sprint handicapper when seeing off ten rivals at Musselburgh (soft) 10-days ago. He escapes a penalty for the success and looks well but he’s drawn out widest of all in stall 12.
It’s the Chester dilemma. Do you go with the well handicapped horse in Jer Batt, should be a lot shorter in the betting, or go with the tried and trusted low drawn horses?
Those drawn I stall 1-4 are – Squealer, Carmela, Seantrabh & Michaela’s Boy.The first named is making seasonal appearance and has yet to run on ground worse than good but trainer Nigel Tinkler has booked Tom Marquand for the ride.
Carmela had some useful juvenile form behind the likes of Mawj last season and beat Cold Case at Carlisle last May. She’s another whose yet to race on ground worse than good.
Seantrabh made all to win a Catterick novice (soft) last October and was a respectable 3 lengths 4th of 13 on seasonal return/handicap debut at Thirsk 18-days ago.
Democracy Dilemma won a C&D maiden at this meeting last year. Fit from the all-weather he posted a career best on RPR’s when beating 12 rivals at Thirsk 18 days ago. He’s got a 5lb penalty to deal with and stall 8 isn’t ideal, but Oisn Murphy has been booked.
2:40 – Weatherbys Digital Solutions Cheshire Oaks – 1m 3 ½ f
The bookies make the Aidan O’Brien trained filly Savethelastdance the odds on favourite for this Listed contest. The daughter of Galileo won a Leopardstown maiden (heavy) on her seasonal reappearance. She’s capable of more improvement for the step up to 1m 4f and she’s already the Oaks ante post favourite. Connections will be disappointed if she can’t win this before going onto better things.
Of the rest. It’s interesting that Pam Sly pitches in the 76 OR rated Wintercrack. The daughter of Cracksman looked much improved when making all to win a Leicester maiden 11-days ago (soft). Drawn out wide in stall 9 and likely to be the outsider of the nine runners but could get into the money at big odds.
3:15 – Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4 ½ f
Just the five have been declared for this Derby Trial. Arrest, a head 2nd of 9 to Dubai Mile in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud final start makes his seasonal return and has the standout juvenile form.
Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last ten renewals of the race and he runs Adelaide River. He was one place and six lengths behind Arrest in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. However, he shaped like a stayer last time and given the trainers race record must be respected.
Kempton All-weather winner Hadrianus ran well when a ¾ length 2nd of 5 to Epictetus in listed race at Epsom 15-days ago. Just done for speed over 1m 2f last time and shaped like the step up to 1m 4f will bring out more progress. Soft ground didn’t faze him at Epsom and if he gets an uncontested lead might be hard to pass.
3:45 – Camden Pale Handicap (Class 3) – 6f
Another handicap where a low draw could be significant. Looking at the five 6f handicaps run at the meeting since 2017. Horses drawn the first half of the draw are 5 winners from 28 runners +0.63 13 placed. Compared to 0 winners from 26 runners, 2 placed with those drawn in the second half of the draw.
Fourteen have declared and those draw stats (albeit very small sample) sway me toward drawing a line through any horses drawn outside the first seven stalls. Which I annoying as I liked the claims of King’s Crown (8) who was respectable 4 length 5th of 14 at Newmarket on his seasonal return last month. A prominent racer, Chester could suit, and the form of his Newmarket race is working out ok.
Royal Dress (3) won at Doncaster (soft) on seasonal return 12-days ago and is open to further improvement on handicap debut.
Radio Goo Goo (1) has a handy low for a prominent racer and can’t be totally discounted for a yard successful in 2019.
Tasever (4) made a promising seasonal return/handicap debut when a 4 length 2nd of 8 at Beverley 9-days ago. The step up back to 6f looks a plus and he’s effective on soft ground.
I saw Lakota Blue (6) win at Ripon (soft) 11 days ago. He’s got a 4lb rise to contend with in a better race. However, he seems to be an inform handicap sprinter going the right way and is one for the shortlist.
California Gem (2) is more exposed but has a handy low draw and is effective on rain softened ground.
4:55 – Everyone’s Turf Handicap (Class 4) – 7f
Not on ITV but as good a betting race as there is on the card. Three catch my eye although one whilst well treated has a wide draw to overcome.
Paws For Thought won the first time up here (6f) in 2021 (last win) but was only beaten a short head in this race 12 months ago, from 3lb higher. Big chance out of stall 6, which is the same stall as he had last year.
Broken Spear won this race in 2021 and is on a losing run that goes back to November 2021. Only a 6 ¼ length 4th of 11 in last year race but was slowly away and could never get competitive afterwards. Back to form effort when a neck 2nd of 8 at Leicester 11-days and has a good draw in stall 1.
Another Batt failed to win last season, but the 8-year-old looked back to form when a 4 length 4th of 13 to Isla Kai at Ripon 11-days ago. He wasn’t the best away that day and met a bit of trouble 1f out before running on. Stall 11 isn’t great (last year’s winner came out off 11) but he’s become nicely treated and he can’t be dismissed.
Betting Advice:
Not a day for many bets for me that’s for sure.
Chester
2:05 – Democracy Dilemma – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Jer Batt – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – Lakota Blue – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John