Good morning all,
Chester’s May Festival is back after a year off due to lockdown.
It’s the start of a busy week of Derby & Oaks Trials starting at Chester today. Moving to Lingfield on Saturday and York’s Dante Meeting next week.
There’s a seven-race card at Chester for day one of the May Festival. I have looked at the first four races on the card although I’m keeping my tipping down today.
The highlight’s being the Group 3 Chester Vase (3:15). It’s an Epsom Derby Trial which was won in 2013 by Ruler Of The World before he went onto victory in that year’s Derby. In 2017 Wings Of Eagles finished runner-up in the race before going onto success at Epsom. Both horses were trained by Aidan O’Brien who has farmed the race in recent seasons winning seven of the last nine renewals.
The other classic trial is the Cheshire Oaks (2:15). The race was won in 2017 by Enable before her win in the Epsom Oaks. John Gosden or Aidan O’Brien have saddled the last five winners of the race.
Chester May Festival – Day 1
The heavy rain that fell on Monday has had an impact on underfoot conditions. Turning the going description from good to firm too good to soft
1:45 – CM Stellar Sports Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (Class 2) – 5f
Seven juveniles have been declared for the annual curtain raiser and five of them were last time out winners.
Race Trends
A low draw tends to be an advantage over 5f at Chester. However, looking at the recent trends for the race horses drawn in Stall 1 are 0 wins from 11 runners 1 placed.
In the past 12 years the race has been run on soft or good to soft going on four occasions and all four winners were drawn in stalls to 2 to 5.
The market has tended to be a good guide in recent years. Horse’s returned 13/2 or bigger are 1 winner from 59 runners since 2008.
Navello is the most experienced horse in the field having already had three starts, winning the last two. However, he has the burden of stall one.
The Richard Hannon trained Armor looked useful when winning at Doncaster on his racecourse debut 11-days ago. That win came on good to firm so today’s ground asks another question of th colt. Ryan Moore booked for the ride.
Devious Angel showed plenty of speed when winning at Southwell last time. That was the filly’s second career start and she should be suited to the track and has a handy draw in stall 2. Tom Dascombe runners are always worth a second look around here and he saddled the winner of the race in 2013.
David O’Meara saddled the winner in 2019. He runs Beauzon who made all to win at Ripon (good to firm) 11-days ago. Stall three looks a positive and the colt shouldn’t be far away for a yard among the winners.
Lucy Lulu was a rare first time out early 2-year-old winner for Roger Fell when winning at Doncaster just 4-days ago. It’s a quick turn round for the filly but it would be folly to dismiss her claims.
Verdict: Given the ground is going to be completely different that these juveniles have raced on it’s a no betting race for me but Devious Angel looks the likeliest winner.
2:15 – Weatherbys ePassport Cheshire Oaks (For The Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (Listed Race) – 1m 3 ½ f
Looking the race trends. The market has been a good guide with those fillies sent off 3/1 or shorter are 8 winners from 17 runners 47% +6.73 13 placed 76% since 2008.
The standouts on juvenile form are Dubai Fountain and Zeyaadah. Dubai Fountain ended last season with a career best effort when 4th of 10 in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket. Just a neck behind Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas winner Mother Earth. Her prominent style of running should be suited to the track.
Zeyaadah made it 3-3 when winning a Listed race at Newmarket (heavy) in October. She’s has a 3lb penalty to give away to her six rivals here. However, she’s open to more improvement as a 3-year-old and trainer Roger Varian saddled the winner in 2014.
John Gosden has saddled two of the last three winners of the race. He relies on Darlectable You who finished runner-up on her sole juvenile start and occupied the same spot at Newbury last time. A superbly bred filly being a full sister to Too Darn Hot & Lah Ti Dar. She needs to have improved again to win but it’s likely she can rate higher.
Coolmore have two representatives Nicest, trained by Donnacha O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. The filly’s dam won the Irish Oaks so looks likely to improve for middle distances as a 3-year-old. Their other runner is La Joconde trained by Aidan O’Brien. A daughter of Frankel she’s a half-sister to Irish Derby winner Santiago and is another capable of more progress stepped up to 1m 4f.
Verdict: Dubai Fountain is the best horse on ratings. Zeyaadah is open to more improvement as are the Coolmore pair Nicest & La Joconde.
1pt win – La Joconde – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:45 – tote+ At tote.co.uk Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Cuban Breeze looks the likely pace angle here. A C&D winner as a juvenile she’s is one of two runners for Tom Dascombe, the other being Harmony Lil. The filly made a pleasing return to action at Nottingham but didn’t build on that promise at Ripon next time. Must be respected back over C&D out of a handy draw in stall 3.
Likely favourite is the lightly raced Showalong. The colt made it 2-5 when making all to win a soft ground novice at York (soft) on his final juvenile start. He shaped with real promise when 3 length 4th of 13 at Thirsk (good to firm) last time. Both wins have come on soft ground so the recent rain will have been welcomed. Open to more improvement and trainer Tim Easterby won this with Copper Knight in 2017.
Verdict: Cuban Breeze has each way claims but the soft ground makes Showalong a strong favourite here.
2pts win – Showalong – 5/2 @ Bet365
3:15 – Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4 ½ f
The most valuable race on the card with £45,368 on offer to this year’s winner. Could we see a Derby contender emerge?
Some of the gloss has been taken away by the non-participation of recent impressive Leopardstown winner Sir Lamorak who was taken out on Tuesday morning on account of the change in going.
The contenders
Aidan O’Brien will sbe represented by Sandhurst. The Galileo colt won a heavy ground maiden at Gowran Park as a juvenile but was never competitive on his seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes last time. Looks the sort to improve with racing and gets the addition of the first time cheekpieces for his step up to middle distances.
Sandhurst faces just five rivals. Wirko looks set to head the market now after his win at Epsom last time. First go on rain softened ground but the dam won on heavy in Germany so he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by it. The son of Kingman has trained on well from two to three and is the one to beat.
Law Of The Sea has won his last two at Kempton and Leicester (good to firm) and is open to further improvement.
Both Fancy Man’s juvenile wins came on soft/good to soft so there are no going issues for the colt. Low key return to action at Newmarket (good to firm) last month but the ground was quicker than he likes and he wasn’t subjected to a hard race. Conditions will be more to his liking today.
Youth Spirit sole 2-year-old win came on soft ground. He finished one place ahead of Fancy Man at Newmarket and should come on for the run.
Osin Murphy has ridden Youth Spirit on his last three starts but he opts for the Roger Charlton trained Pleasant Man. The son of Galileo looked a nice prospect when winning on heavy ground on his racecourse debut last season. Beaten favourite (5/6) on his Windsor (good to firm) return 23-days ago. Could be open to more progress in the first time cheekpieces, stepped up to 1m 4f and a return to easier ground.
Verdict: If there is a Derby horse in the field it’s Wirko. The soft ground shoukd see good runs from Sandhurst and Pleasant Man.
3:45 – tote+ Pays You More At tote.co.uk Handicap (Class 3) – 6f
I have been waiting for top weight Uncle Jumbo since he was unlucky in the run when a close-up 4th of 7 at Pontefract on his seasonal reappearance. A good draw in stall 2 and he races off the same mark as last time. Plenty to like about Uncle Jumbo’s chance here. Trainer Kevin Ryan is among the winners and saddled the 2011 winner of this contest.
Good Listener won at Windsor on good to soft last season. He will be sharper for his Wolverhampton reappearance and likely capable of better now going handicapping for the furst time.
Trainer Brian Meehan is 4-9 +26 with his runners in the past 14-days. He saddles Tanfantic who must be respected on yard form but does need to find improvement on his handicap debut. First run on going worse than good.
Paws For Thought made all to win here over 7f last September and followed up at Catterick. He will need to break quickly from stall six to get to the front and likely faces competition for the lead. Still respected for the Dascombe/Kingscote partnership.
Pivoting made all to win a Pontefract (heavy) auction race on his final juvenile start. Was well behind Uncle Jumbo on his return from a 6-month absence but will be fitter today with that run under his belt. The going last time was good to firm and the softer the ground the better for the gelding. Trainer Tim Easterby win this in 2014.
Verdict: Uncle Jumbo is open to more improvement but at the prices I’m going with Pivoting who should relish the rain softened ground.
1pt win – Pivoting – 15/2 @ Bet365
4:45 – Deepbridge Estate Planning Service Handicap (Class 4) – 7f
The biggest field of the day with fourteen declared to run. Richard Fahey has won this three times in the last nine years. He saddles National League who looked on a winnable mark when ½ length 2nd of 10 at Redcar two starts back. The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a 4¾ lengths 7th of 16 to Nugget in the Spring Cup Newbury. That was a much better race and the former juvenile course winner must be respected here, albeit stall 8 could have been better.
Lincoln Park put up a respectable effort when a 3 lengths 5th of 15 to Gunmetal at Doncaster (good) last time. The step back up to a sharp 7f is a positive as his a return to easier underfoot conditions. His form figures at Chester on good to soft or worse ground are 1224. On the negative he has wide draw in stall 11 to overcome.
Sir Maximilian might be a 12-year-old but he showed he retains plenty of his old ability when a 4¼ lengths 6th of 13 in a Class 2 handicap Haydock 11-days ago. Back down into Class 4 company here and his record at Chester is 4 wins from 9 runs +18.50 6 placed, including 2-3 over C&D and 2-4 at this meeting. Good draw in stall 2 and Franny Norton booked. Should be fine on good to soft and set for another big run back here.
Verdict: I was hoping for a better price on Sir Maximilian. Lincoln Park and National League have tricky draws to overcome, the latter in particularly, but they are both handicapped to go close at their best.
1pt win – National League – 9/2 – Gen.
Cheers
John