Hi all,
The old timers used to say the winter jumps season only starts with the Cheltenham’s November Meeting and the Paddy Power Handicap Chase. That’s less of a case these days, as you can argue that Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby sees the start of the jumps season proper. That all said, the November Meeting is arguably the most important fixture between now and Christmas.
Not only high-class racing but it normally offers clues to the Cheltenham Festival in March. Since 2011 some 42 horses ran at the meeting that went onto win at the following years Festival.
All the weekend’s action starts here and ITV 4 will be broadcasting the four of the six races from Day 1.
Cheltenham November Meeting – Day 1
1:15 – Markel Insurance Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m 5f
ITV are not covering this 18-runner handicap hurdle for the conditional jockeys but it’s an intriguing race nonetheless.
There are a couple of interesting race stats.
Just five trainers have won this race in the past 12-years and three of them have runners in this year:
Induno – David Pipe – 4 winners from 11 runners 36% +46.33 5 placed 45%.
Steal A March – Nicky Henderson – 3 winners from 12 runners 25% +6.25 6 placed 50%.
Tango Boy & Heavey – Neil Mulholland – 1 winner from 5 runners 20% +3 3 placed 60%.
Even more interesting is the stat for the clear favorite in the race. For what is normally a big field handicap that attracts an average of 20 runners, clear favorites have produced – 6 winners from 11 runners 55% +12.33 8 placed 73%. Indeed, if you backed all the clear favourites each way you would have made +16.04.
1:50 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m
The first of the ITV races and for me the race of the day.
Magic Saint heads the ante post betting. The 6-year-old will be suited by a return to 2m after seemingly not staying 2m 4f at Aintree last month. He’s suited by good, good to soft ground but his Cheltenham record is 0-3 and he maybe better on a flatter track. Yard couldn’t be in better form but I want to take him on.
On The Slopes was an improving handicap chaser up to 2m4f season. Winning twice in good style at Kempton in Feb/March. He raced like the run was needed when 5th of 13 behind Rouge Vif here at the last meeting. Will be a lot sharper for his seasonal return and trainer Chris Gordon’s horses are running much better than they were three weeks ago. The 6-year-old is 6lb higher than for his last success but he’s capable of landing a decent pot in the coming weeks.
Beat The Judge finished two places but just 1 ¼ lengths ahead of On The Slopes last time. He’s only had the four starts over fences, winning two of them so could be capable of better but he did have race fitness on his side last time and I think On The Slopes can finish in front of him this time.
Fanion D’Estruval made an impressive stable debut when winning at Newbury (soft) last November. He was then sent of 6/4 for a Grade 2 at Kempton at Christmas but struggled to go the early pace and finished 5th of 6. Not seen out since suggests something was amiss that day with the 5-year-old. Best form has come on softer ground than he’s likely to get here but he goes well fresh and is another with scope for more improvement this season.
1pt win – Fanion D’Estruval – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
2:25 – SSS Super Alloys Supports Racing Welfare Novices’ Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4f
Just the four go to post for the race but they include Impressive last time out winners Protektorat and Southfield Stone (C&D). Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled last years winner and he runs Mossy Fern who should be sharper for his chase debut here over extended 3m at the last meeting. The drop back to 2m 4f looks a positive. He’s no forlorn hope here as there’s not much between all three horses on their hurdle ratings but his jumping needs to have improved.
3:00 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 6f
It’s not often that the Cross-Country race is the race of the day. However, you can see why with easy Festival Cross Country winner Easyland, two-time Grand National winner Tiger Roll and a last season’s Welsh Grand National Winner Potters Cross whose having his first start over the course. All three of them have the Grand National in their sights and whoever emerges victorious here will be ante post favourite for the big one in April. These types of races are not my cup of tea from a betting perspective but this does a fascinating race to watch.
3:35 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 5f
Just the seven go to post and it looks between the Kim Bailey trained Does He Know who has won his last two starts including over C&D three weeks ago. Really took to the course last time and has proved himself on good or quicker ground. Grand Mogul looks the biggest danger to the favourite. The 6-year-old won a Thurles bumper for Gordon Elliott before switching to Nicky Henderson last autumn. Showed he had ability on his two starts last season but too his form to a stronger level when running out a comfortable winner of Chepstow maiden hurdle (soft) 17-days ago. Must prove he’s as good on quicker ground but jockey Nice De Boinville said after his win that he would prefer better ground. Has 11lb to find with the favourite on official ratings but he looks a useful prospect.
4:05 – Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 3) – 2m ½ f
A seventeen-runner novice handicap hurdle looks a tough getting out stakes race.
One True King finished runner-up over C&D three weeks ago and has each way claims again off 2lb higher.
Given the form of the David Pipe yard handicap debutant Panic Attack must be respected after her win at Uttoxeter 14-days ago. Looks the type to win more races over hurdles.
Fergal O’Brien saddled last year’s winner and has runners in this year’s race: Handicap debutant Art Approval and The Bees Knees whose won his last two and looked much improved when easily winning on his handicap hurdle debut at Musselburgh 9-days ago. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for that success but could defy it, if handling the track.
Takeit Easy won a handicap hurdle at Huntingdon last month. The handicapper has raised him 8lb for that success but he’s another going the right way and has each way claims for trainer who rarely sends one to Cheltenham.
1pt win – One True King – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Takeit Easy – 14/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John