Hi all,
It’s expected to be wet at Cheltenham tomorrow and it won’t take much for the going to go soft. Maybe the best place to be watching Paddy Power and the other five races of the November Meeting is at home in the dry and in front of the TV.
This years Paddy Power looks a cracker but there’s a good supporting card of races.
Cheltenham – November Meeting – Day 2
1:05 – South West Syndicate Handicap Chase (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race) (Class 3) – 3m 1f
Kilfilum Cross has finished twice runner-up here in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. He goes well on rain softened ground. The 9-year-old returned from a 218-day break to finish 4th at Fakenham last month and should be sharper today.
1pt win – Kilfilum Cross – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:15 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
Saint Sonnet and Mister Fisher have been well backed ante post for the race. Both are unexposed over fences, in particular the former who won’t have any problem if the going eases. Mister Fisher is capable of better this season but he may be better on good/good to soft than soft.
It’s not going to be easy to win this under 11-11 but Simply The Betts has to rate a strongest contender of those at the front end of the betting.The 7-year-old has Festival handicap chase winning form and is 3 wins from 3 runs on his seasonal reappearance. The forecast rain is arguably a positive with his form figures over fences being 11211 on heavy or soft.
There are plenty of others in the field with course form. None more so than last year’s winner Happy Diva. The mare had a nice spin at Wetherby two weeks ago and should go well again but may find others are better handicapped.
Slate House was travelling like the most likely winner in the race 12 months ago but fell two out. This year’s race looks to have more depth but he should go well and looks on a good mark.
Siruh Du Lac is interesting on his first start for the inform David Pipe yard. Twice a winner here for his previous trainer Nick Williams. He pulled up in this 12 months ago and fell when still in contention two out at the Festival. Definite contender if the stable switch had had the desired effect.
Sky Pirate is a maiden over fences after nine starts but he’s finished runner-up on his last three starts. Ran as well as ever on his return to action at Wetherby last month on his first start since a wind-op. Has a nice light weight (10-2) and the ability to land a decent handicap chase this season. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill knows what’s required to win this race as he’s saddled the winner twice since 2013.
Brelan D’As has run some good races here in defeat. He finished third in the Grand Annual last years and was runner-up last year, beaten a neck, this would be his first start since stumbling badly three in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here last December. Could get into the places again with a decent round of jumping.
Verdict: It looks one of the strongest renewals of the Paddy Power. Saint Sonnet is in the ‘could be anything category’. Simply The Betts is solid choice and of those at bigger odds I wouldn’t rule out a big run from Sky Pirate.
1pt win – Simply The Betts – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Sky Pirate – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
2:50 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) – 3m
Golan Fortune and Tobefair were first and third in this race 12 months ago and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again.
Tobefair disappointed when down the field at the last meeting probably the ground was bit to too quick that day and he should be fitter today. The 10-year-old can never be dismissed at Cheltenham.
Golan Fortune ran well when 4th of 12 behind Unowwhatimeanharry at Aintree last Saturday. Quick turnaround for the 8-year-old but he’s 1-1 when racing within 7-days of his last run. No problem with soft ground for the 8-year-old and the first time visor replace the cheekpieces today.
Tea Clipper has improved with each of his five starts over hurdles. Showed plenty of stamina to win a valuable 2m 3f handicap hurdle at Chepstow 35-days ago. Up 7lb but the 5-year-old looks like he can improve further for the step up to 3m. Yet to race going worse than good to soft so soft ground would be an unknown for the ante post favourite.
Irish raider Mrs Milner won a 2m mares handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival and showed she stayed 2m 6f well when 3rd of 14 at Ballinrobe in September. Scope for more improvement for the step up to 3m. Has form on yielding to soft in Ireland but whether she wants it very deep is a questionable.
Debestyman looked to have the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at his mercy when unseating his rider at the last in January. Once again showed he enjoys these big field handicaps when 2nd of 19 here at the last meeting. Stays 2m 5f well but 3m on soft ground will test his stamina to the limit.
Verdict: Tea Clipper is the form horse but is vulnerable on soft ground and may not run. The Debestyman can win a handicap like this over the winter but his stamina for 3m will be tested today. That leaves last year’s first and third Tobefair & Golan Fortune.
1pt win – Golan Fortune – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportbook
1pt each way – Tobefair – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Punchestown
12:50 – Alanna Homes Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 3 ½
Willie Mullins saddles seven of the 18 runners in this valuable handicap chase.He also has the front two in the betting inTornado Flyer & Salsaretta.
Tornado Flyer won his first two starts over fences (soft/soft to heavy) and ended last season finishing 3rd to Faugheen in the Grade 1 Flogas Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown and fifth to Samcro in the Marsh Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. Only had five starts over fences so can progress further and he looks on a fair mark for his handicap debut. First run since Cheltenham but he’s 3-3 when returning from a 121+ day break so a lack of fitness shouldn’t be an issue.
Salsaretta is 4-4 since going chasing last season with two of those wins coming here, including C&D. The mare is 4-6 on soft/heavy ground so the more rain the better for her. First run for 244-days but she’s 2-3 when returning from a 121+ day absence. All her chase wins have come in small field so the ‘hustle and bustle’ of a big field will be a new experience Could be on a good mark for handicap debut but Paul Townend has opted for Tornado Flyer.
Tintangle looked like she would Salsaretta a race when unseating her rider two in a Grade 2 at Limerick in March. She was getting 3lb from the Mullins mare that day but was still going well before her mishap. Ran poorly on her return at Clonmel 16-days ago and not for the first time didn’t look the most enthusiastic. However, she gets 20lb from Salsaretta today which brings her in the mix if on a going day.
Castle Oliver improved to win three handicap chases at the start of the year before looking to fail for stamina in the 3m Leinster National in February. Drops back in trip for his seasonal return and looks to be starting the season on a good mark. No great record off a lay off though.
Zero Ten ended last season winning a Grade 3 Novices Chase at Thurles in March. Had a spin on the flat 13-days ago which should have blown away the cobwebs. First run beyond 2m 2f over fences but won a hurdle here over today’s distance last year. Just the four starts over fences and the 7-year-old is another who could progress further as a second season chaser.
Verdict: Hard to separate the Mullins pair of Tornado Flyer and Salsaretta but I’m taking the former to make a winning seasonal return.
1pt win – Tornado Flyer – 7/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Cheers
John