Hi all,
As with the last couple of days I have previewed all seven races on day three and today’s selection can be found at the end of the main piece.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 3
The Thursday of the Cheltenham Festival is usually my biggest betting day of the week, and this year is no exception. The reason is it’s the one day of the four which has three handicaps. All three of the handicaps are seriously competitive.
1:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Mighty Potter, trained by Gordon Elliott, will be many punters idea of the banker of the day, maybe the week. The 6-year-old made it 3-3 over fences when winning the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival last month.
Banbridge was a staying on 10 length 2nd of 8 in the Irish Arkle last month. That was an inadequate trip for the 7-year-old, and he will be better suited by the return 2m 4f. He would have preferred better ground though.
That means the biggest rival to Mighty Potter could be Appreciate It who was a nose behind Banbridge in the Irish Arkle. However, softer ground will suit Appreciate It more.
There were no British trained runners in last year’s but there’s a couple here with claims. There’s been money around for Balco Coastal who finished runner-up to Gerri Colombe in a Grade 1 at Sandown last time. He can’t be totally dismissed for a trainer who won this in 2021. Mighty Potter could have a class advantage over the field, but I still have a liking for Appreciate It.
Stage Star won a valuable novice’s handicap chase over C&D on Trial’s Day. That C&D form means he’s not ruled out each way but shouldn’t be good enough to win.
2:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 3m
A maximum of 24 runners are set to meet the starter with only Perceval Legallois of the leading fancies not declared.
Thanksforthehelp has been the one best backed horse’s in the ante post betting after an easy win in an Exeter Qualifier 19-days ago. He showed the benefit of wind surgery that day and the step up to around 3m. An 11lb rise in weight’s isn’t likely to stop him given how well he won last time.
Maxxum followed up a Navan success when storming home to win a Leopardstown qualifier in December. Only a 14 ¼ lengths 12th of 17 when 7/4 favourite back at Leopardstown last month. Excuses for that run as he was hampered on the home turn and came back with a graze on his right hind leg. Could be capable of more improvement and is a big player.
Good Time Jonny bounced back to his very best when a 16 ½ length 3rd of 27 to a well handicapped Maxxum at Leopardstown (3m) two starts back. He gets a 25lb pull in the weights with the winner and is entitled to get closer here. The drop back to 2m didn’t suit him when a 17 ½ length 12th of 17 to Gaelic Warrior last month. Better expected here and looks on competitive mark.
Nicky Henderson who won this in 2015 saddles Mill Green & Walking On Air. The latter returned to winnings way in the Exeter qualifier last month. He won with more in hand than the 3 ½ length margin of victory suggests. Up 5lb which isn’t harsh, as he’s lightly raced, just five starts over hurdles, and he’s a big player if building on last time. Mill Green might be an 11-year-old but he showed last year that he can be competitive in these sort of races when q 2 ¼ length 3rd of 22 in last year’s race. Same mark today and was an eyecatcher on seasonal return when a 7 lengths 3rd of 9 at Haydock last month. Likely to give another good account and has each way claims.
Since 2014 horses who ran at Musselburgh prior to coming to the festival are – 1 winner from 93 bets -84 12 placed. Those stats are off-putting when it comes to the claims of Coltor and the The Bosses Oscar. The pair were 2nd & 3rd at the Scottish track last time. Color proved he stayed 3m at Musselburgh. The Bosses Oscar, who was having his first run since August that day, finished a five length runner-up in the 2021 Final, off 9lb higher and has been given a chance by the handicapper.
I have to give a quick mention to The Bosses Oscar’s stablemate Salvador Ziggy. The 7-year-old developed into a very useful hurdler on good ground last summer and qualified for this when a 4 length 4th of 15 to Shoot First on handicap debut here in October. Not run since but won on stable debut for Gordon Elliott last May so can go fresh. Soft ground is big unknown but the booking of smart 7lb conditional jockey is an eye-catching one for the top-weight.
Verdict: Thanksforthehelp remains well treated if backing up his recent Chepstow and is the one to beat. At the prices I just prefer Mill Green over stablemate Walking On Air. Maxxum may not have stopped his progress. And both he and Good Time Johnny are two others who are worthy of serious consideration. As is Salvador Ziggy who has top 7lb conditional in the saddle albeit soft ground is an unknown.
2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f
Shishkin bounced back to his best when winning the Grade 1 Ascot Chase last month. If he backs up his effort here, then he’s going to be tough to beat.
Blue Lord found 2m 1f to short when a disappointing 7 length 2nd of 7 to Gentleman De Mee in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase at Leopardstown last month. The step up in trip will suit the 8-year-old as will today’s softer ground.
Blue Lord’s stablemate Janidil has 11lb to find with Shishkin on Official Ratings. Runner-up to stablemate Allaho 12 months ago. He looked as good as ever when making a winning belated seasonal reappearance in a Grade 2 at Gowran Park last month. That run should have put him spot on for this and if Shishkin under performs for whatever reason he’s the most likely to take advantage.
3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m
A competitive looking Stayers Hurdle and a much better contest than 12 months ago. Blazing Khal returned from a 14 month layoff to win the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Naas last month. That win saw him usurp Teahupoo at the top of the ante post betting. The latter has won both this season’s starts and has clear claims and will appreciate even more rain. The softer the ground the greater Teahupoo’s chance.
Given doubts about Blazing Khal’s troubled prep and Teahupoo on ground that isn’t testing I’m happy to take the pair on.
Flooring Porter is another that hasn’t had the smoothest of preparations but he’s a dual winner of the race and you can’t rule him out on his hat trick attempt.
Home By the Lee has won his last two including the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (3m) at Leopardstown last time. He was only sixth in last year’s race, but he’s much improved this season and a big player.
Ashdale Bob was a three length runner-up Home By The Lee at Leopardstown. A good third in last year’s Coral Cup he ticks the festival form box. A 78-day absence shouldn’t be a negative as he has winning form off an even longer lay off. Others may have stronger claims for the win, but he can get into the places.
Klassical Dream was only caught close home by Teahupoo in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He was the 11/4 favourite when fifth in last year’s race but I don’t think he was quite right that day and he can get closer to Flooring Porter this time around. He goes well fresh and is very much in the mix on the best of his form.
You must respect French challengers Gold Tweet and Henri Le Farceur. I was particularly impressed with the former’s win in the Cleeve Hurdle over C&D on Trial’s Day. There could be more to come from the 6-year-old over this trip.
4:10 – Magners Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 2m 4 ½ f
Another maximum field handicap what’s not to like.
Irish challenger So Scottish won his first two starts over fences and then finished a1 ¼ length 2nd of 7 to Boothill at Ascot in November. Has been kept for this race and looks well treated but its softer ground and he’s plenty short enough in the betting for me,
Midnight River is proven around here finishing third in the Paddy Power and then improving again to win over C&D on New Year’s Day. Up 7lb but should be thereabouts at the finish. Connections will be hoping the New Course is soft because he’s better horse at this distance with plenty of give in the ground. The forecast very strong pace will also suit the 8-year-old.
Il Ridoto had Fugitif 1 length back in second when winning a valuable C&D handicap chase here on Trials Day. The first time cheekpieces had the desired effect on the winner and if the headgear continues to work, she shouldn’t be far away even off 8lb higher. Fugitif gets 2lb from Il Ridoto and could be capable of reversing placings today.
Haut En Couleurs’ jumping can be a hit and miss although he was better last time when a 1 ¼ lengths 2nd of 4 to stablemate Janidil in a Grade 2 at Gowran Park last month. No easy task under top weight of 12-0 but he’s a classy chaser and must be on the shortlist. Willie Mullins has booked Michael O’Sullivan to take off a handy 3lb.
Shakem Up’Arry looked like an improved handicap chaser when making a winning seasonal return at Exeter. Jumped well when a 10 ¾ length 5th of 16 to Midnight River last time. Remains on a competitive mark and gets a 7lb pull with Midnight River. Has a chance but this trip probably stretches his stamina.
Datsalrightgino has improved for going over fences this season and proved his stamina for the distance when a 3 ¾ length 2nd of 11 to Stage Star in handicap chase over C&D on Trial’s Day. Continued going the right way when a 2 length 2nd of 5 to Solo in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton last month. Back in handicap company off 4lb higher but definitely one for the shortlist.
Seddon has improved for a stable switch when winning a handicap hurdle here in October (good to soft) and took advantage of a lower chase mark when winning a Leopardstown handicap chase at the Christmas meeting. Much higher mark to contend with back in Britain but can’t be ruled out on his hat trick bid.
Verdict: So Scottish could be well treated and is open to plenty of improvement but 4/1 I want to take him on. The likely strong pace will suit Midnight River. Fugitif has a valuable handicap chase like this in him and is high on the shortlist. Datsalrightgino & Seddon are another two worthy of serious consideration. As is top weight Haut En Couleurs who has a good win in him when it all clicks.
4:50 – Jack De Bromhead Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
Nicky Henderson trained Luccia is a strong favourite for this Grade 2 contest. She’s unbeaten on four starts under rules and given she would have had a chance in the Supreme she’ll be hard to beat if she’s as good as some think.
Ashroe Diamond made it 2-4 over hurdles when winning a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse 47-days ago. Her form is strong and with no Luccia would be a strong race favourite. Her stablemate Lot Of Joy got off the mark at the third attempt when winning at Fairyhouse last month. She is capable of more improvement in the sphere and gives Willie Mullins a strong hand in the race.
You Wear It Well runner-up to Hermes Allen in the Challow Hurdle, won a Sandown Listed race (2m 4f) last time. It is the same race that Love Envoi won prior to winning this last year. She won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back trip on easy ground and could get into the places.
Princess Zoe, a classy stayer on the flat, won a Group 1 at Longchamp and finished runner-up in the 2021 Ascot Gold Cup. She dead heated on her hurdle debut at Punchestown in January. A better run race will suit her and given her flat class can’t be underestimated.
This year’s race is being run in the memory of Jack De Bromhead and there wouldn’t be a more heart-warming winner than his father’s runner Magical Zoe. I was taken with her performance in winning a Grade 3 mares novice hurdle at Down Royal in November. We haven’t seen her since that win, but she’s won fresh before and this will have been the plan.
5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase – 3m 2f
A very competitive renewal of the Kim Muir and you can make a case for plenty of the 24 runners.
Stumptown got off the mark at the sixth attempt over fences when winning at Thurles two starts back and followed with an even more impressive success at Sandown (good) 28-days ago. Up 10lb but open to further progress.
Mr Incredible looked suited by the step up to 3m 5f when a 2 ¾ lengths 2nd of 13 to Iwilldoit in Classic Chase at Warwick last time. Doing his best work at the finish that day the drop back to 3m 2f might not suit but soft ground will.
Angels Dawn improved to win at Down Royal in January and was strongly fancied to follow up, sent off the 15/8 favourite, in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Punchestown last month. She was very much in contention just behind the leaders when unseating her rider two out. Unexposed over staying trips and capable of bold show here.
The step up to 3m 2f on handicap chase debut could suit Beauport who looks fairly treated on the best of handicap hurdle form, for a trainer who won this in 2013.
Anightinlambourn improved to win three of her four starts between August & November including a handicap chase here (3m 1f) 124-days ago. Going the right way when last seen but has an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with and her winning form has come on a sound surface.
Rapper improved for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when winning a handicap chase over C&D on New Year’s Day. Not disgraced dropped back to 3m when a 9 ¼ length 5th of 12 at Sandown last month. Return to this trip is a plus and if he takes to the first visor won’t be far away.
Dunboyne has been a bit hit and miss over fences but was on a going day when a short head 2nd of 18 in the valuable Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park last time. Yard has won this three times since 2016 and jockey Jamie Codd rode the winner in 2015/2016. Big player if in the same form as last time.
Royal Thief returned from a 26 month absence to gain second success over fences when winning at Punchestown in January. Jumped well and was strong at the finish of that 2m 6 ½ handicap chase. Up 15lb but the 9-year-old has only had three starts over fences and is capable of more improvement for the return to this sort of distance.
Fontaine Collonges looked like a staying handicap chaser going places when winning at Haydock on her seasonal reappearance. Found 3m around Kempton an inadequate stamina test when a 9 length 4th of 14 to Remastered at Christmas but was a very disappointing favourite (7/2) in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last month. Might have preferred softer ground last time and has to be respected if reproducing her best soft ground form. Trainer saddled the first and third 12 months ago.
Musical Slave hit form at this time last year winning at Sandown and Haydock in March/April and ended last season with an excellent 8 length 2nd of 15 to Hewick in the Bet365 Gold Cup. Down the fields on his first two starts this season but was back to winning ways in a Veterans Chase at Exeter last month. Same mark here and the booking of top Irish Amateur Derek O’Connor, rode the winner in 2019, is hardly a negative.
Verdict: There are five Irish challengers on my shortlist. The pick of them look to be the progressive Stumptown, last time out winner Royal Thief and Angels Dawn. The home team also have strong claims with the likes of Fontaine Collonges, Musical Slave and C&D winner Rapper all in the mix.
Betting Advice:
Cheltenham
2:10 – Mill Green – 1pt each way – 28/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places) Salvador Ziggy – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral and Good Time Johnny – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
3:30 – Gold Tweet 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 and Klassical Dream – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365
4:10 – Fugitif – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and Midnight River – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
5:30 – Royal Thief – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365 and Angels Dawn – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Cheers
John