Hi all,
It’s day two of the festival. Not a great start to the meeting but the Cheltenham Festival is a marathon not a sprint.
The going changed during Tuesday’s action to good to soft, soft in places.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 2
Like yesterday I have had a look at four races from day two.
1:20 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 5f
Like yesterday’s Supreme, this race has cut up badly with just seven going to post. I’m a big Bob Olinger. I think he could have won yesterday’s Supreme. This is his trip though and he should handle drying ground. The one to beat.
Bravemansgame is rated 5lb higher on RPR’s than Bob Olinger. A future high-class chaser in the making and I still prefer the likely favourite.
Bear Ghylls is unbeaten on four of his starts under rules, including 3-3 over hurdles. Capable of further improvement for the step up to 2m 5f. From small yard and has each way claims with bookies paying three places.
Verdict: Bear Ghylls has each way claims with those bookies paying three places. However, I’m firmly in the Bob Olinger camp here. Although at the prices Bravemansgame is getting to a backable price.
1:55 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Another small field of just six novice chasers but it remains a good race with a worthy favourite who could go onto win next season’s Gold Cup.
I’m on Monkfish (4/1) and Eklat De Rire (14/1) each way, three places, so I’m more than happy with my portfolio for the race.
The Big Breakaway remains with potential. He won a novices’ chase here in November on his chase debut and finished fourth, behind Envoi Allen in last season’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Needs to jump better than he has on his last two starts though.
Verdict: I’m happy with my positions. I think Monkfish is one of the bankers of the meeting but I wouldn’t put anyone off The Big Breakaway if you fancy him.
2:30 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 5f
One of my favourite betting races of the festival. A maximum field of 26 has been declared. There are five I really like.
Monte Cristo is lightly raced and has been put up 12lb for a comfortable success at Kempton. I like the fact that the 5-year-old ran on strongly at the end of the Kempton race and he’s probably been kept for this race.
Grand Roi looks steadily progressive on RPR’s. Handicap debut here but looking at his adjusted RPR he looks on winnable mark. Although stamina for a strongly run 2m 5f must be proven there looks to be a good chance the trip could unlock further improvement in the 5-year-old.
Guard Your Dreams only finished 6th in the Betfair Hurdle on his last start. However, looking at RPR’s it was a career best effort form the 5-year-old. A winner of three of his five starts over hurdles The Coral Cup is his first run beyond an extended two mile but he was nearest at the finish at Newbury and shaped like he would appreciate a step up in trip.
Craigneiche, a stablemate of Monte Cristo, has got a bit to find with the top three on RPR’s but he’s only had the four starts and improved to win on his handicap debut at Ascot in January. He’s been hiked 12lb for his Ascot success but he’s lightly raced and there was plenty to like about his Ascot win. Trainer Nicky Henderson who has won the last two running’s of the Coral Cup and saddled the 2014 winner.
Thomas Darby finished runner-up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle here in 2019. Since his run in the Supreme the 8-year-old has been consistent and he won a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot last season under top-weight, off 4lb lower, beating Song For Someone. He would need a career best to win the Coral Cup under top-weight but given his overall class/consistency he’s got to be high on the shortlist. Get’s the first time cheekpieces today.
Verdict: Top weight Thomas Darby has each way claims. The Henderson pair Monte Cristo and Craigneiche are in the mix as is handicap debutant Grand Roi.
1pt win – Monte Cristo – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Grand Roi – 13/2 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Thomas Darby – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 7 places 1/ 5 odds)
3:05 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
Despite losing Altior, ten stand their ground, for the race of the day. I’m on First Flow (14/1) each way and remain happy with my pick who can get into the money.
Chacun Pour Soi is odds on to give Willie Mullins a first win in the race. His six from seven since joining Willie Mullins and is clearly a worthy favourite. That said he’s yet to race at Cheltenham so the track is a bit of an unknown but if he handles it, he surely wins.
Nube Negra beat Altior in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas but I think he’s better on a flatter track.
Put The Kettle won the Arkle Novices’ Chase last year and the mare is now 3-3 at Cheltenham when winning the Shloer Chase in November. Beaten fair and square by Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown at Christmas but has each way claims back at a track that suits.
First Flow’s connections will have been pleased with the rain that fell on Sunday night. Comes into the race in excellent form. He’s third top rated on RPR’s and doesn’t have too much to find with the favourite.
Rouge Vif a useful novice chaser last season, although ran below par when only third in the Arkle. The ground was probably too soft for him that day. Made an impressive return to action when winning handicap over C&D in November (good). Not had his ground on his last two starts and if he gets good to soft or quicker, his form figures on such going are 2121111 and he’s got each way claims for a yard now among the winners.
Verdict: If he handles the track Chacun Pour Soi wins. I’m happy with First Flow each way. However, if the ground does dry out, the ground dependent Rouge Vif could get into the places.
1pt each way – Rouge Vif – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) – 3m 6f
You either love these Country races or you don’t. I don’t, so it’s a no betting race for me.
4:15 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
The second handicap of the day and arguably even more competitive than the Coral Cup. Nineteen have been declared so the field size has held up well. It’s a race where you can fancy plenty.
Joseph O’Brien has a strong hand in the race the front two in the ante post betting in Embittered & Entoucas.
Embittered has started just four times over fences and has been running in graded races. Handicap debut which should. The 7-year-old was an excellent third in last year’s County Hurdle. Looks capable of far better than we have seem so far over hurdles and he looks on a good mark based on his County Hurdle form.
O’Brien also saddles Us And Them. The 8-year-old has reserved some of his best performances for Cheltenham. He finished runner-up in the 2019 Arkle and finished third in this race last year. Vulnerable to any improvers in the field but likely to be in the mix once again.
Entoucas is 0-5 over fences, but has finished runner-up on three occasions. A career best on RPR’s when 4th of 20 in a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown last month. Looks the type to land a decent pot when all the cards fall right and he’s got hurdles form on a sounder surface.
Sky Pirate improved for the drop back to 2m when handicaps here and at Warwick. Has sine been beaten in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase back at Warwick. He’s now 7lb higher than for his win but a strongly run 2m should suit the strong travelling 8-year-old.
Ibleo has been in good form this season finishing runner-up to Sky Pirate here in December. Has improved since winning at Huntingdon & Doncaster, beating The Big Bite on the last occasion. Yet to race on ground better than soft over fences though.
Amoola Gold was in good form at the start of the season winning at Wetherby, before beating Ibleo at Ascot and is 10lb better off with that one today. Improved on that when running First Flow to a neck back at Ascot next time. Ran Sky Pirate to 2 ¼ lengths at Warwick last time and is 4lb better off now. Competitively weighted if he handles the track.
Zanza looked a progressive handicap chaser when winning at Newbury on his third start over fences. Looked to be travelling as anything when falling three out here in a handicap chase won by Sky Pirate in December. Mark unchanged here and has likely been kept for this race. The better the ground the better his chance. Capable of being the mix, if none the worse for his last time mishap.
Chosen Mate won this 12 months ago, off 8lb lower. Looks to have been trained for this again and connections have booked Jordon Gainford to take off a handy 7lb. Tough ask to do the double but can’t be easily dismissed on good to soft or better ground.
Bun Doran has plenty of form around here, including a C&D win and finished runner-up in this in 2019. As a 10-year-old he’s vulnerable to younger legs but is weighted to run well and could get on into the places at big odds.
Moonlighter comes into the race after winning at Sandown last month. Just up 3lb for that win and a strongly run race, going left-handed should suit. Ground versatile and capable of big run, if his jumping holds up.
On The Slopes was an improving handicap chaser at around this time last season winning twice at Kempton. Not fired on his three starts this season but he remains open to more improvement although a flatter track may suit him better.
Or Jaune De Somoza a useful enough handicap chaser was two places and 2 ½ lengths behind Entoucas at Leopardstown last time. Was making steady late headway that day and at the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair, although you fancy that Entoucas may have a bit more in his locker. Plenty of previous form on a sound surface and has each way claims.
Verdict: The drying ground will suit Zanza more than Ibleo. Joseph O’Brien has a strong hand in the race with Embittered, Entoucas & Us And Them and all three of them will appreciate drying ground. Sky Pirate should be suited by the pace of the race. Amoola Gold is fairly handicapped, has winning form on good to soft and has each way claims. Bun Doran has plenty of good form at the track and despite his age is another each way contender.
1pt win – Zanza – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Embittered – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Entoucas – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:50 – Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
I wrote about this race last week.
All the last ten winners were aged five or six and had won their last race. Those not fulfilling those two trends are 0 winners from 87 runners 7 placed,
Five of the winners were returned at odds between 14/1 to 25/1.
Willie Mullins has saddled the winner of the Champion Bumper four times in the past ten years. And he has a strong hand in this year’s race with the front two in the market in Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard, formerly with Gordon Elliott.
Interestingly all four of the Mullins winners were returned between 11/1 to 25/1 – 4 winners from 13 runners +68 8 placed (+91.80 each way). He’s 0 winners from 21 runners 4 placed with horses outside that price bracket.
Whilst I wouldn’t put you off the market leaders and their chances are clear for all to see. An each-way punt at one of the trainers bigger priced runners could pay dividends, as it has done in the past. He has a couple in the right price range in the mare Grangee and Ramillies.
Verdict: It’s hard to look past the Mullins horses here. Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard are smart prospects and it’s likely the winner will come from the pair. A modest each way investment on Ramillies, Grangee or even Cool Jet may well pay dividends.
Good luck with your Cheltenham bets.
John