Hi all,
I’ve only been to the Cheltenham Festival once in 2014 but it was a memorable three days. I’m not sure If I will ever go again so I’m glad I got experienced it. From the famous Cheltenham ‘Roar’ to seeing all the horses trying their best. The sport doesn’t get any better than the next four days.
The Cheltenham Festival is a place where heroes, both equine and human, are made. It’s the place where owners get the chance to live their dream. And its why these four days of racing are some of the best the sport has to offer anywhere in the world.
These are my favourite four days of the year, and I will be having plenty of bets, particularly in the handicaps.
Inside today’s main piece I preview all seven races and today’s betting advice can be found at the end.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 1
The field sizes have held up better than expected for the Grade 1 races.
1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
It’s not a vintage renewal. Mind you after one horse has bolted up by 15 lengths, I might not be saying that.
Facile Vega heads the market even though he ran well below expectations at the Dublin Racing Festival. Just two horses have won the Supreme since 2008 that didn’t win their previous start and one of them had finished a close-up second. Punters are relying on Willie Mullins working the oracle and getting this exciting prospect back on track. I’m happy to take him on.
Facile Vega’s stablemate Il Etait Temps was put in his place by Facile Vega at Christmas, but he had his tablemate back in 5th last time. I think that Grade 1 winning performance has been slightly underestimated. Make no mistake he’s a Grade 1 novice and I think he’s overpriced of the pair.
High class flat horse High Definition fell in the Grade 1 won by Il Etait Temps and that’s not an ideal preparation for a race like this.
I missed backing Marine Nationale at big odds prior to winning the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse in December. Unbeaten on his four career starts I would much rather have him than Facile Vega.
Of the home team Tahmuras’ Tolworth Hurdle win has been boosted and now looks decent form. Rare Edition was below his best when runner-up at Huntingdon last time (had a dirty scope). However, prior to that he has looked a smart prospect when winning his first three hurdle starts. Strong Leader made it 3-3 over hurdles when winning at Southwell 44-days ago. He’s capable of better and has each way claims at big odds.
2:10 – Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
I love the Arkle. It’s not because it’s a race I have had much success in. Spoiler alert. I don’t. Although I did land on Edwardstone 12 months ago. No, it’s because there’s no finer sight in jump racing than a strongly run 2m novice chase at Cheltenham.
El Fabiolo and Jonbon are vying for favouritism. The former should be clear favourite for me. His win in the Irish Arkle is the best novice chase former have seen this season. That said I have a feeling that Jonbon might beat him.
El Fabiolo stablemate Dysart Dynamo has looked the best jumper of the three. He has 10 ½ lengths to find with El Fabiolo on their running in the Irish Arkle but he was only headed coming to the last. He probably did too much up front that day and he does have a furlong shorter to race here. I can see him getting into the places.
Another El Fabiolo stablemate Saint Roi, a useful 2m hurdler unseated his rider at the fifth in the Irish Arkle. I thought he might have gone for the Grand Annual Handicap so it’s interesting to see him come here. A strong pace is ideal and he’s another with each way claims if he gets the race run to suit.
2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 1f
The first of today’s two handicaps. Unlike the other handicap later on the card this is a race where 11 of the last 15 winners of the race were returned 11/1 & under.
Into Overdrive has improved for going chasing. A winner on his seasonal return at Wetherby before finishing runner-up to L’Homme Presse in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. He was back to winning ways in Rowland Meyrick back at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Up 5lb but capable of better if handling much softer ground.
Corach Rambler is 6lb higher than when winning this corresponding race 12 months ago. He was good 9 length 4th of 15 to Le Milos in Coral Gold Cup last time and although the Grand National is very much on his agenda you can’t rule out another win in the race given the form of the Lucinda Russell yard.
Happygolucky was a 4 length 3rd of 9 to L’Homme Presse in the Rehearsal Chase on his return from 20 month absence. Not as good dropped back to 2m 4f here on New Year’s Day. You can forgive him for that run and this previous C&D winner gets a handy 8lb pull with Into Overdrive. Stable form is concern but the first time cheekpieces make him of big interest here.
Nassalam was third in that 2m 4f handicap chase on New Year’s Day. The step up in trip could suit the 6-year-old but soft ground will put a premium on stamina.
The Irish don’t have a good record in this race, but Fastorslow could easily put that right here. He was a short head second in last year’s Coral Cup here 12 months ago. A winner over fences in France the 7-year-old has had a couple of down the field efforts in Grade 1 contests this season but he’s more interesting here and looks fairly treated on his hurdles form.
Fantastikas was a 13 length 7th of 24 to Corach Rambler in last year’s race. However, he’s 12lb lower this time around and gets an 18lb pull in the weights with the winner. He’s not the most consistent of handicap chasers but the first time cheekpices/tongue strap mean we could see him outrun big odds.
Jonjo O’Neill saddled Holywell to win this in 2014 and he’s got a big contender Monbeg Genius. The 7-year-old has won his last three races over fences improving his RPR’s on each start. Granted all three wins have come in small field contests but he’s going the right way and is in the mix.
The Joe Tizzard pair of Oscar Elite and The Big Breakaway are contenders. The first named was third in this race 12 months ago and race off 1lb lower this time around. He was back to winning ways when winning a three runner Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot last month. The Big Breakaway was ahead second at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance and occupied the same spot when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 17 in the Welsh Grand National. Of the pair he will appreciate the softer ground and is the choice of Brendan Powell.
Verdict: Into Overdrive is progressive and has strong claims. Last year’s winner Corach Rambler isn’t handicapped out of this. Monbeg Genius is going the right way and has a nice progressive profile. Happygolucky is better than he was able to show last time and is competitively weighted with Into Overdrive on their Rehearsal Chase form behind L’Homme Presse. The Irish don’t have a good record in the race but Fastorslow could change that. He went close in the Coral Cup last year and mark of 150 could be workable on handicap debut. If the first time cheekpices/tongue tie have the desired effect, then I can see the well-treated Fantastikas outrunning big odds.
3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle – 2m ½ f
Two horses this week could be superstars in the making. One is Galopin Des Champs in Friday’s Gold Cup and the other of course is Constitution Hill. Provided he doesn’t make a serious mistake he wins this. However, as we know one serious mistake and his race might be over. That said I think he could win this by ten lengths or more.
In any other year State Man would be an odds-on favourite for this. Since he fell on his hurdle debut last season the 6-year-old has won his last six starts improving with each run. He’s a serious opponent for Constitution Hill but I think the hot favourite is something very special.
I Like To Move It put in a markedly improved performance when winning the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last time. I had him down as capable of getting into the places on good ground and maybe even been worth a go in the without the favourite market. The recent rain has tempered my enthusiasm for his claims though.
4:10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
The last two winners of the Champion Hurdle Honeysuckle and Epatante both head here rather than the feature race 40 minutes earlier. That means this year’s Mares’ Hurdle is arguably the deepest in its short history. If Honeysuckle was back to her best form, she would take the beating here but I think she’s the mare she was. The same applies to Epatante and I’m not sure she wants a real stamina test over 2m 4f.
Marie’s Rock last years winner comes here rather than for the Stayers Hurdle later this week. The 8-year-old made a winning reappearance in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle here on New Year’s Day. Despite facing Honeysuckle and stablemate Epatante she’s got a great chance of back to back wins in the race.
Willie Mullins saddles three in Brandy Love, Echoes In Rain & Shewearsitwell. The first named looks the stable pick with Paul Townend taking the ride.
Brandy Love was one of the leading mares novice hurdlers last season and she slammed Cheltenham Mares Novices Hurdle winner Love Envoi in the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse last April. Not subjected to hard race on her belated seasonal reappearance when a 4 ¾ length 3rd of 7 to Queens Brook in a Grade 3 at Punchestown 20-days ago. She was trying to give 7lb to the winner that day and I fully expected her to beat that mare here. Open to further improvement a big player.
Echoes In Rain was only fifth in last year’s race and I think she might be better over shorter. Shewearsitwell has a bit to find on official ratings, but she’s won her last two starts and shouldn’t be underestimated.
4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½ f
Don’t be afraid to back something at big odds in the second of today’s handicaps. In the past 15 years horses priced 25/1 to 80/1 are – 7 winners from 138 runners +138 16 placed.
Irish trained horses have won the last seven renewals and given the quality of the Irish juveniles this season and eighth win seems likely.
It’s a race that has eluded Willie Mullins, but he has the ante post favourite in Tekao. He won on Leopardstown juvenile maiden at Christmas before finishing a 12 ½ length 3rd of 8 to stablemate Gala Marceau in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s capable of better on just his fourth start over hurdles..
Byker, a winner on the flat hails from the shrewd Charles Byrnes yard, stepped up on his hurdles debut when beating twenty rivals at Naas two starts back. He improved again in defeat when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 6 to Sir Allen back at Naas last month. Looks on a competitive mark for his handicap debut and looks set for a big run with the cheekpieces on for the first time.
If you like Byker you must be interested in Sir Allen. A 5 length runner-up to Triumph Hurdle favourite Blood Destiny on hurdle debut. He’s since improved win his last two starts and the Naas race, he won last time has been won by three of the last four winners of this race. Must be high on the shortlist and I’m surprised to see him double figure odds at the time of writing.
Bad looked a smart prospect when winning at Bordeaux in November. He could be on a good mark on his debut for Ben Pauling with Rachel Blackmore an eye-catching jockey booking.
Perseus Way is a consistent hurdler who was a 1¼ length runner-up to Nusret in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton 17-days ago. Likely to give his running and has each way claims but he’s vulnerable to any better treated rivals.
Punta Del Este, a winner when trained in France, made a solid stable debut for Dan Skelton when a 4 ¼ length 3rd of 9 to Bo Zenith in Victor Ludorum Juvenile Hurdle at Haydock last month. Capable of better than he’s shown so far and can go well on handicap debut.
Romancero Le Dun unseated his rider at the first on hurdle debut at Warwick but has gone to win at Exeter and latterly Ludlow (soft). Strong at the finish last time, a more strongly run race could see him in an even better light. He needs to improve plenty on his debut in handicap company, but he looks capable of plenty of progress. An outsider but given the record of horses returned 25/1 and bigger he’s worth considering. Trainer’s ex husband Nick Williams saddled the winner of this in 2017 with a 33/1 shot.
Verdict: At around 9/2 I’m happy to take on early bird favourite Tekao. Byker looks interesting in the first time cheekpieces but at the prices I prefer Sir Allen who him last time. There’s been money for Bad which could be significant but at 8/1 looks plenty short enough. At very big odds I’m happy to take a swing on Romancero Le Dun.
5:30 – WellChild National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase – 3m 6f
Willie Mullins is likely to be out of luck with State Man in the Champion Hurdle, but he should take the final race of day 1 with favourite Gaillard Du Mesnil. A smart novice last year albeit a maiden over the larger obstacles. The 7-year-old finished third in last year’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase here and occupied the same position in the Irish Grand National. He’s got the best form of the ten runners by a fair way.
Of his rivals, Chemical Energy would have been interesting on a sounder surface. Stablemate Minella Crooner looks like he needs a real stamina test like this andcould prove a biggest threat to the Mullins favourite. Mahler Mission is a useful novice chaser who could be capable of more improvement for this step up to a marathon trip. Mister Coffey is the best of the home team. Runner-up in the Kim Muir here 12 months ago. Has found winning over fences hard though – 0 wins from 7 runs, 6 placed. I don’t really expect him to beat Gaillard Du Mesnil but he still worth a play at around 10/1.
Betting Advice:
The wide open as ever Cheltenham handicaps are where the value lies for me and it’s those races that interest me most from a betting perspective today. That’s not to say I won’t be putting up selections in the non-handicap races over the next four days.
It’s not a big day punting wise but one winner will make sure the service at least breaks even on the day.
Cheltenham
2:50 – Happygolucky – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Corach Rambler – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Monbeg Genius – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:50 – Sir Allen – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and Romancero Le Dun – 1pt each way – 40/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places)
5:30 – Mister Coffey – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365.
Cheers
John