Hi all,
Apart from a going change. The other big Cheltenham news is that Altior joins Energumene & Thyme Hill on the missing list. Trainer Nicky Henderson reported he returned an unsatisfactory scope on Monday morning.
There was an unexpected 10mm of rain at Cheltenham on Sunday night. That has changed the going too soft, good to soft in places.
Given the amount of rain Cheltenham has had this winter, they lost their last two meetings, it’s not so surprising that a few heavy showers can quickly change the going description. It was evident on Saturday at Sandown. The going was forecast to be good on Thursday but heavy showers changed the going to heavy come race time.
Cheltenham can dry out quickly at this time of year, particularly if there is plenty of warm sunshine and/or a strong wind. So, it’s not inconceivable that we could see good ground all over on Friday.
We won’t know how the ground is riding until after the first two races on the card but I suspect even with a dry day on Monday there will be significant ease in the ground.
The forecast for the rest of the week is mainly dry. However, as Sunday night showed weather forecasts are indeed just forecasts.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 1
1:20 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
Just the eight have been declared which is a disappointing turn out.
Appreciate It heads the market and rightly so on form. The ease in the going will suit the favourite but I’m not sure he’s that far ahead of Metier as the odds suggest.
Metier needs genuinely soft ground which he should get here. If you take away the yard form, which still isn’t great then, he’s got a good chance.
Verdict: Form of the Harry Fry stable is a slight concern but I’m going to take Metier to beat Appreciate It.
1pt win – Metier – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
1:55 – Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
A race that lost its gloss for me when when Energumene was declared a non-participant last week.
It could be a good start for favourite backers. With Shishkin long odds to do the Supreme/Arkle Double.
If Allmankind can get in a good jumping rhythm out in front he can give the favourite a race but I don’t see Shishkin losing unless the Henderson yard has issues.
Captain Guinness might well have finished runner-up to Energumene at Leopardstown last time but for falling two out. It’s hardly an ideal preparation for this but he’s talented and could be one for forecast players.
Verdict: Not sure about the well-being of the Henderson horses but I can’t really see beyond Shishkin. With a clear round Captain Guinness could give the favourite most to do. A no bet race for me though.
2:30 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f
This is more my sort of race. A big field handicap with sixteen runners. My main fancy for this Lieutenant Rocco is now sadly a non-runner.
Happygolucky heads the market. Fourth in last year’s Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle. The 7-year-old is two from three over fences, including a win here in December, and is open to plenty more improvement on his handicap debut. Soft ground should be ok. Although his chance is enhanced by drying ground.
Aye Right runner-up in the Ladbroke Trophy and more recently in the Sky Bet Chase must be in the mix, despite being nudged up 3lb after his run at Doncaster. Given his good jumping he deserves to win a nice handicap pot and there would be few more popular winners than the 8-year-old.
One For The Team came in for good support in the Sky Bet Chase but could only finish 5th. He probably found the ground too testing and appeals if he gets a sounder surface to race on. Not sure the recent rain has helped the 7-year-old. However. he’s on a competitive mark if he gets his conditions and trainer Nick Williams saddled Coo Star Sivola to win the race in 2018.
Pym a winner on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown, ran flat when only 5th of 10 in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. The 8-year-old has some good form around here, beat Imperial Aura in a Novice Chase around here last season. Interesting when fresh with form figures 12121 off a 90+ day layoff.
Discordantly put in a career best on RPR’s when winning at Galway in October and wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 22 in valuable Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan on his next star. The 7-year-old has failed to complete on his last two starts which is hardly a good preparation for this but I think he remains nicely treated if putting a clear round.
Verdict: I would love Aye Right to win but he tends to find one to good. One For The Team has a similar profile to the trainers previous winner. Happygolucky could be well-handicapped but the ease in the ground means he’s plenty short enough for me now. Good race if you like each way betting and both Discordantly & Pym could repay support.
1pt each way – Discordantly – 18/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportbook
1pt each way – Pym – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:05 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
There should be plenty of pace on with the likes of Not So Sleepy, Aspire Tower and Goshen in the line-up.
Last year’s winner Epatante faces nine rivals in her bid for back-to-back Champion Hurdle success. After her impressive win in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle on here seasonal return it’s hard to imagine the mare is now as big as 7/2 for this. Her defeat when long odds in the Christmas Hurdle explains her price but there was a valid excuse for her run that day and she should make a bold bid to regain her crown.
Honeysuckle is a perfect ten out of ten over hurdles. Last season’s impressive Mares Hurdle winner has jumped better this season and put in a career best when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last month. The more rain the better for her and she’s the one to beat.
Goshen bounced back to form when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last month. The 5-year-old has that potential star quality but I wonder if the race will be run to suit and his tendency to jump right-handed isn’t a positive on the old course.
Last year’s runner-up Sharjah is likely to find today’s smaller field suits him better. Just like last year he comes into the race after a poor run at the Dublin Racing Festival. Another good run expected and he’s got each way claims.
Another with each way claims is Abacadabras. Last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up was well beaten into second by Honeysuckle last time but a strong pace will suit the 7-year-old who goes well over C&D.
Verdict: A strong forecast pace could set this up for a closer like Sharjah & Abacadabras. Despite not having an ideal prep for this I’m going with Epatante to end Honeysuckle’s unbeaten run.
3:40 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Not a race I normally get involved in but it looks a good contest and at the prices I like a couple here.
Concertista last season’s mares’ novices’ hurdle winner is 2-2 this season and will be hard to beat over this distance
Roksana might be better at 3m these days but the rain has helped her cause back at 2m 4f and there is nothing between her and the favourite and official rating’s.
Last year’s Coral Cup winner Dame De Compagnie returns to hurdling after unseating her rider in a Grade 1 at Sandown last time. Has a bit to find on ratings with the front two in the market but she remains capable of better over hurdles.
Indefatigable won the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle here 12 months ago. Her form figures at Cheltenham are 5121. Has run poorly on all three starts this season though. Needs a recent wind-op and a return to Cheltenham to help her return to form.
Concertista’s stablemate Great White Shark is interesting. Last season’s Cesarewitch winner was beaten favourite for the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park on her return from a break. The ground was heavy that day so her performance can be possibly explained. Third in last year’s Martin Pipe her hurdle form isn’t at the level of the likes of Concertista & Roksana yet but she’s’ open to improvement and has place claims.
Verdict: Roksana has been in good form stepped up to 3m this season and that maybe her best trip now. Concertista’s claims are clear. And I expect her stablemate Great White Shark to bounce back from a poor run last time Dame De Compagnie returns to hurdles and remains open to more improvement.
1pt each way – Great White Shark – 18/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Dame De Compagnie – 7/1 @ Bet365
4:15 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½ f
A maximum field of 22 are declared to meet the starter.
As I said my initial race preview, a dart at one or two at big odds could pay dividends. Six of the last ten winners of the race were returned in the odds range 25/1 to 40/1 – 6 winners from 63 runners +132 (BFSP +232.42) 11 placed.
Zoffanien showed improved form when making a winning handicap hurdle debut at Naas (soft) on Sunday. The better ground seemed to suit the son of Zoffany and strongly run race seems likely to suit him.
An equally impressive last time out winner was the Dan Skelton trained Cabot Cliffs who made it 3-5 over hurdles at Warwick last week. He was quick and accurate over hurdles last time but it won’t be easy to dominate this field.
Paul Nicholls saddled the winner of the race in 2015 & 2016. The runner-up in 2014 and the third in 2013 (22/1). He’s got two entries in this year’s race:
Houx Gris who won a juvenile hurdle at Auteuil in October prior to joining the yard. And finished 3rd of 8 in the Garde 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in January. He travelled well into the race that day and only faded out of contention after making a mistake two out. He’s been well backed this week for the race and looks a major contender.
The Dermot Weld trained Coltor got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a Naas maiden 44-days ago, Zoffanien a close-up third. Won on the flat in the first-time visor last season and the headgear returns for the first time over hurdles. A big player for a yard that prepare one for the festival.
Balko Saint, trained by Jane Williams, has improved with each start over hurdles and finished an excellent third in the Grade 2 at Cheltenham that Hell Red pulled up in. He looks the sort to improve with racing.
Joseph O’Brien saddled Battle Of Outlaws to win this in 2019. He runs Busselton who gets the first time cheekpieces for his handicap debut and Druid’s Altar. The latter is more exposed than most but comes into the race on the back of winning a Naas novice last month, beating Zoffanien in the process. He’s another who could improve for running in a big field handicap hurdle.
Verdict: A wide open handicap. Houx Gris has been well backed in the ante post market and is likely on a good mark. Both Joseph O’Brien runners Busselton & Druid’s Altar have claims. Both Zoffanien and Coltor could be suited by a strongly run big field handicap.
1pt each way – Zoffanien – 25/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Coltor – 10/1 @ Bet365
4:50 – Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 6f
My early fancy for the race Longhouse Poet doesn’t run. Still, I think this a decent renewal of the race.
Galvin trained by Gordon Elliott had been the ante post favourite for this since winning at Cheltenham last October. Runner-up to Imperial Aura here last season. He’s since been placed to win his last four starts. Soft ground a slight worry but the further he goes the better he looks and his dam won over 3m 4f.
Next Destination is 2-2 since going over fences after wins at Newbury and in a Grade 2 at Warwick. He looks a real stayer so should be suited by the race distance.
Lord Royal fell when looking the most likely winner on his chase debut at Thurles. Ran poorly at Naas on his next start (5/6) but ran much better when returning to that venue when 2nd of 9 in a beginners’ chase, one place ahead of The Big Dog, in January. He’s only a 6-year-old but he races like a thorough stayer and trainer Willie Mullins has won the race twice since 2013.
Remastered looked an ideal type for this race when making all to win the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. He jumped soundly that day and is another who look a real stayer. Best form has come with plenty give in the ground though.
Snow Leopardess has improved for going over fences. A winner of handicap at Haydock (soft) on just her third start over the larger obstacles. Ran well off a 9lb higher mark when 2nd of 8 in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. A sound jumper she should improve further for a real test of stamina. Could get into the money but trainer Charlie Longsdon is 0 winners from 66 runners 2 placed at the festival, sole previous runner in this finished 7th (9/1).
Verdict: Galvin has been aimed at this all season and has rock solid claims. Next Destination is another with excellent claims but I’m a bit surprised that he’s displaced Galvin as race favourite. Lord Royal is open to improvement for the step up to 3m 6f. Remastered is 3-3 over fences and although it was a weak Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase that he won last time, he looks an ideal type of for this. Will the ground be soft enough for him? Snow Leopardess has place claims and could really appreciate the step up in trip.
Cheers
John