Hi all,
It’s day two of the Cheltenham Festival. Like Tuesday I’m going to preview all seven races and today’s selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Cheltenham Festival Day 2
1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle – 2m 5f
Three from three over hurdles Hermes Allen ran out an impressive winner of Newbury’s Grade 1 Challow Hurdle last time. It was very soft ground when he won last time and the rain has come in time for him. However, I wonder if he might find one or two a bit to speedier at the business end of the race.
The money came in for Impaire Et Passe last week. An impressive winner of a Grade 2 at Punchestown last time. He looked like a high class prospect that day and showed a good turn of foot to win.
Besides Impaire Et Passe Willie Mullins also saddles Gaelic Warrior, Champ Kiely & Ho My Lord. The first has clear claims but I haven’t really warmed to him and his tendency to jump right means he may be more a Punchestown horse.
Champ Kiely bounced back to winning ways when successful in a Grade 1 at Naas in January. That race has been won by Envoi Allen (2020) and Bob Olinger (2021) before they went onto success in the Ballymore. Granted he got to dictate the pace that day and two hurdles were omitted but should go well.
Ho My Lord won a Navan maiden hurdle (2m) last month and can improve for the step up to 2m 5f but this is a big step up in class.
Good Land won the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle (2m 6f) at the Dublin Racing Festival. The race is normally won by a staying type. However, I was taken by the performance by the winner. He jumped neatly and travelled well through the race. The drop back to 2m 5f shouldn’t inconvenience him as he doesn’t lack pace.
I can see why Impaire Et Passe is at the head of the betting and he’s the most likely winner, but my pick is Good Land.
2:10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Gerri Colombe made it 3-3 over fences when winning the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown last month. The good to soft didn’t prove any inconvenience that day but I think he’s capable of an even bigger performance on soft ground. The step up to an extended 3m can also bring out more improvement in the 7-year-old. First time going left handed over fences, but he should be fine. I think he’s a future Gold Cup winner and he will be tough to beat.
Sir Gerhard is vying for second favoritism but he’s stepping up to 3m on just his second start over fences. I don’t say he can’t win given his high class hurdle form but I’m happy to oppose him given his lack of experience.
The Real Whacker has won both his starts over fences including C&D. He won’t get an easy time of it out front today and although he’s respected given his course form, I prefer the favourite.
Thyme Hill hadn’t looked a natural over fences on his first two starts over the larger obstacles. However, a better run race and the application of the first time cheekpieces did the trick when he won the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.
2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle – 2m 5f
Camprond fourth in last year’s race before going onto win a valuable handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, from 1lb higher. He’s been given a chance by the handicapper and well supported in the ante post betting into favoritism. Better ground would suit him though and I want to take him on.
Run For Oscar won the Cesarewitch on the flat at Newmarket in October and has run well on both starts over hurdles since. Cheekpieces are back on and he’s a big player.
HMS Seahorse fourth in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle here last year. The 5-year-old posted a career best when winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Navan last time. The step up 2m 5f suited him and he’s open to further improvement over the trip. Trainer Paul Nolan does well with his runners at the Festival in the past five years – 1 winner from 11 runners +2 7 placed 64% (+17.23).
Langer Dan runner-up to Galopin des Champs in 2021 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle. He was brought down at the second when 7/2 favourite for this race 12 months ago. Not really competitive on three starts this season but this has likely been the target once more.
Beacon Edge a 5 ½ length 4th of 15 in the 2021 Stayers Hurdle hasn’t really taken to fences but shaped like he was coming back to form at the right time when 6 ½ length 3rd to Blazing Khal in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan last month. Might need further but he’s on a good mark for his handicap debut. Tongue tie on for the first time and one to note with Michael O’Sullivan taking off a handy 3lb.
Captain Conby twice a winner over hurdles at Punchestown last season he’s run well on all, three starts this season and posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 19 at Punchestown last time. Higher in the weights today but has a decent pot in him and can go close if handling the track.
Connections of An Epic Song had the short head runner-up in last year’s race, and the 6-year-old looked an improving hurdler when winning at Punchestown on handicap debut. The combination of heavy ground and the step up to 2m 3f suited him that day. Off for 12 months he has returned with a couple of down the field efforts over 2m. However, the tongue tie/cheekpieces are on for the first time and he’s back up in trip. He’s not been missed in the ante post market though.
Nells Son was in the process of running a big race when falling three out at Kelso 11-days ago. If none worse for that mishap he’s likely on a good mark
Good Risk At All looked like a progressive handicap hurdler well ahead of his mark when an easy winner at Ascot last February. Failed to get into this race last year but returned to action with an improved effort when winning at Carlisle (2m 4f) in October. I don’t think he stayed 3m when only 6th of 13 in Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in November. First run since but goes well fresh and the recent rain is ideal for the 7-year-old.
Verdict: Langer Dan, HMS Seahorse, Captain Conby, An Epic Song and Good Risk At All are in no particular order on my final shortlist. I can’t go for all five but as races go, I’m happy to play three against the field.
3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
The feature race of Day 2. Last year’s Arkle winner Edwardstone takes last year’s winner Energumene. If the ground is genuinely soft, that will be a plus for the latter who wasn’t seen to best effect last time. Editeur Du Gite who finished ahead of the pair here last time shouldn’t be underestimated either. That said I think it will be between Edwardstone and Energumene and I’m taking the latter to bounce back to winning ways. Although likely it’s a race that I will be watching rather than betting in.
4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country Chase) – 3m 6f
Gordon Elliott has a strong hand in the race with the top two on Official Ratings in Galvin and Delta Work. The former makes his debut in the sphere but has been below form on his last two starts over regulation fences. Delta Work won this race 12 months ago and he’s my idea of the winner again. Albeit it’s not a race I will be having a bet in.
4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 2m
Andy Dufresne was a 3 length 2nd of 16 to Global Citizen in last year’s race. However, he was bitterly disappointing when down the field back in handicap company last time. First time tongue tie is applied, and he can race off the same mark as 12 months ago and this has likely been the plan all season.
Coeur Sublime seemed to miss a good opportunity when a neck 2nd of 6 to Rebel Gold in a Grade 3 at Naas 17-days ago. The 8-year-old is a powerful traveller who should be suited to a strongly run race and isn’t discounted on handicap chase debut.
Before Midnight is a previous C&D winner and he’s 1lb below his last winning mark. The first time tongue/tie and cheekpieces are applied. Not handicapped out of this but may prefer better ground.
Dinoblue is the least experienced of the field, having had just three starts over fences. A winner on chase debut at Cork in November the mare has finished runner-up on her last two starts including a 3 length 2nd of 5 to Impervious in a Grade 2 back at Cork. Her stablemate Dads Lad won over C&D in October. He’s now 10lb higher and back on softer ground but he’s unexposed over fences.
Final Orders has been a much improved performer since going over fences, completing a five time when winning at Leopardstown last month. He’s not the biggest horse so probably wouldn’t want the ground to soften much further given his big weight, but he’s got to be high on the shortlist.
Third Time Lucki a good early season novice chaser last season, including finishing a 4 ½ length 2nd of 4 to Edwardstone at Warwick last February. He looked out of sorts on his first three starts this season but bounced back to winning ways at Sandown last month. A strongly run race will suit but he may need a sounder surface.
Global Citizen won this last season, from 4lb lower. Had a prep run over hurdles at Wincanton last month which should have put him spot on fitness wise. Yard very much back in form and another bold bid can be expected here.
Verdict: Andy Dufresne, Coeur Sublime, Dinoblue, Final Orders and Global Citizen are the five on my final shortlist. It’s another race where I will have two running for me, but I could easily end up with three if the odds allow it.
5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper – 2m ½ f
Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times since 2008 but he thrown plenty of darts at the race 61 to be precise. This year he saddles 10 of the 24 runners which is 42% of the total runners.
I have been really sweet on the chances of non-Mullins runner in A Dream To Share. The 5-year-old produced a good turn of foot to win a Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing festival last time. The recent rain has been a slight concern though as the son of Muhaarar doesn’t lack speed and has yet to race on ground worse than yielding. Still, he remains my idea of the winner and If I have a bet in the race, he will be it.
Betting Advice:
Once again, my main efforts are in the handicap races on day two.
Cheltenham
2:50 – Captain Conby – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Bet365, HMS Seahorse – 1pt win -10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and Good Risk At All – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:50 – Andy Dufresne – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Coeur Sublime – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Global Citizen – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John