Hi all,
When you get it wrong in this game, boy do you get it wrong and I got the weather wrong at Epsom. Although it wasn’t a selection, at least I highlighted the claims of Oscula in the first and Blue Cup got an excellent ride from Osin Murphy to win the 1m 2f handicap. Rhoscolyn won the last and he would have been a selection in that race if I knew the ground was going to be as soft as it turned out to be.
Still a small profit on the day which was better than I feared when I watched the rain falling on the track.
Its Cazoo Derby Day at Epsom with the highlight of a seven-race card being the blue riband race of British flat racing. The action begins at 2:00 and ITV are covering five races from the track building up to the Cazoo Derby (4:30).
The weather is set to be sunny and very warm tomorrow which will help to dry out the ground a bit and they will also be using fresh ground on the far side. We know that Epsom can dry quickly but how much will it dry by the time racing starts? I think we can assume that it won’t be that quick for the Derby.
Epsom
2:00 – World Pool At The tote Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
King Frankel has been in good form this season winning at Pontefract two starts back before finishing a 4-length 2nd of 10 in the London Gold Cup at Newbury. Stablemate Chase The Dollar showed he stays 1m 2f at Newcastle last time. He’s a contender if he handles today’s different track.
Freak Out hails from the inform George Boughey yard. The 3-year-old bounced back to form when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 10 at Newmarket last time. Stall nine could be better and his best form has so far come on a sound surface but the first time cheekpiece are added for his start beyond a mile.
Patient Dream won here over an extended mile (good) on his seasonal reappearance. Up 7lb for that success and needs to settle better than he did last time if he’s to stay 1m 2f. The one to beat if he does. Dam won on soft so conditions should be fine.
1pt win – Freak Out – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
2pts win – Patient Dream – 11/4 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Cazoo) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m ½ f
Posted shaped like last month’s seasonal return at Newmarket was needed. The 5-year-old is much respected on her success in Listed company at Sandown last September. She made all that day and repeat of such tactics would make her interesting here. Although she may prefer quicker ground.
Statement put in a much-improved performance when 2nd of 17 to Alcohol Free at Newbury on her return to action. Ultimately well beaten in the 1,000 Guineas, probably helped to strong a pace, but is bred to appreciate a mile and won on heavy last Autumn.
3:10 – Cazoo Diomed Stakes (Group 3) – 1m ½ f
The recent rain has come right at the right time for Century Dream who won this race in 2018 and was successful when it was run at Newbury last year.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Marie’s Diamond bounce back from a lack luster run at Ascot last time. The ground versatile 5-year-old could be hard to peg back if he gets an easy lead out in front.
3:45 – World Pool “Dash” Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
The rain has come at the right time for the Tim Easterby trained Sunday Sovereign. Twice a winner on yielding/soft ground when trained in Ireland. The 4-year-old hasn’t been to best effect since switching to his new yard but bounced back to form when a ¾ length 2nd of 12 at York (soft) two weeks ago. Yard saddled the first two home Captain Dunne & Confessional in 2011 and the 4th in 2019. Up 3lb for his York effort but has a good draw in stall 19 and he’s high on the shortlist.
His biggest rival could be last time out C&D winner Recon Mission out of stall 2. As we saw last time, he’s at his best on tracks that emphasis speed and although he’s been raised 3lb for his last win he remains on a good mark based on his best 3-year-old form.
2pts win – Sunday Sovereign – 6/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Recon Mission – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:30 – Cazoo Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Entire Colts & Fillies) – 1m 4f
The Derby remains the race that every owner, trainer and jockey wants to win.
Short priced favourite Bolshoi Ballet will be tough to beat. He’s won both his starts this season. Granted he got a good ride from Ryan Moore when winning the Derrinstown Derby Trial last time and his main market rival that day Mac Swiney underperformed. He should stay 1m 4f and could be a top-class colt.
Mac Swiney boosted the Derrinstown form when winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time. He’s another who should be suited by the step up to the Derby distance. Best form has come on testing ground but the longer distance on a sound surface should be fine for the colt.
Hurricane Lane is now 3-3 after his win in last month’s Dante at York. He looks the best of the home team and is another who should relish the step up to 1m 4f. A winner on heavy ground as a juvenile underfoot conditions shouldn’t be a problem for him.
Mohaafeth is another big contender from Newmarket. The son of Frankel didn’t come off the bridle when beating four rivals at Newmarket last month. Yet another colt who can improve for the step up to 1m 4f. The quicker the ground the better though and he may not run its too soft.
High Realm won the Lingfield Derby Trial at Lingfield last time. A handy sort he won’t have any issues with the track. The son of Sea The Stars looks capable of more improvement and can get into the money.
John Leeper has won two of his three starts, both this year. He’s a rapidly improving colt that’s for sure. A winner of a 1m 2f Listed race at Newmarket last time. He won that day despite doing plenty wrong and showed plenty of greenness when successful last time. However, will a race like the Derby will come too quick for the son of the great racemare Snow Fairy.
Southern Lights has 8 ½ lengths to find with Bolshoi Ballet on their running last time. However, he didn’t get the best of passages that day. He’s only had three starts, is entitled to better with racing and should be suited by a step to 1m 4f. Could get into the money at big odds if handling ease in the ground.
Verdict: Bolshoi Ballet is a worthy favourite for Aidan O’Brien who bids to saddle his 9th winner of the race. The ground has likely gone against Mohaafeth which makes Hurricane Lane the best of the home team. John Leeper is a potential big improver and has Frankie in the saddle. Southern Lights could out run big odds and is one for those looking for a big priced each way play.
1pt win – Hurricane Lane – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
5:15 – Northern Dancer Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Group One Power beat Soto Sizzler over C&D back in April. There was just ½ length separating the pair on that occasion. He was able to dictate the pace that day and is not certain to get his own way here. The 4-year-old maintained his improvement when 2nd of 9 at Ascot last time and seemed effective on soft ground at Ascot.
At the revised weights Soto Sizzler would have a good chance of reversing places with Group One Power. However, he was last of seven at Newmarket (good to soft) 22-days ago. The former C&D winners best form has come on downhill tracks but soft ground would be a concern. Trainer & Jockey combined to win here yesterday.
Verdict: Likely favourite Group One Power has strong claims but if the ground was good or quicker, I would be very interested in Soto Sizzler.
5:50 – Cazoo Handicap (For the Tokyo Trophy) (Class 2) – 6f
A tricky handicap brings the curtain down on this year’s Derby Festival.
Lexington Dash is 5lb higher than when winning at Doncaster last time but remains progressive and remains on a competitive mark. Not sure whether the track will suit though and I suspect he will want the ground to dry out.
Ejtilaab drops back to 6f for the first time since winning on his racecourse debut. Strong in the market and ran well from the front when 2nd of 11 to the improving Boardman at Chester 7-days ago. Stall 9 is a bit tricky but he seemed effective enough on good to soft last week and the drop to sprint trips could be a good one.
Kimifire hasn’t won for two years but he should be all the better for his 3rd of 8 at Goodwood last month and is back down to the same mark as when beaten a head in last seasons Stewards Cup at the same venue.
Atalanta’s Boy made it 4-5 at Goodwood when winning on his seasonal reappearance at the Sussex venue 36-days ago. He’s been raised 5lb and now races off a career high mark but I don’t think we have seen the best of the ground versitile 6-year-old who is one of my long-term fancies for this season’s Stewards Cup.
Danzeno might be a 10-year-old but showed last season that he retains plenty of his old ability with some good efforts in sprint handicaps. Probably too consistent for his own good which means he doesn’t get much respite from the handicapper. It’s a tough ask to win this off a 236-day break but he has won fresh in the past. Handles soft but quicker ground would be better.
Verdict: A tricky handicap brings the curtain down on this year’s Derby Festival. My two picks are the inform Ejtilaab and Atalanta’s Boy.
1pt win – Ejtilaab – 7/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Atalanta’s Boy – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John