Hi all,
The weekend American racing fans wait a year for is almost here. Yes, it’s time for the 2022 Breeders’ Cup World Championships which this year is being held at Keeneland.
After a couple of years without getting to heavily involved in the Breeders Cup action I’m back with a bang this year.
Inside this preview you can read my thoughts on all the Breeders Cup championship races.
The action gets underway on Friday, with five races for 2-year-olds. “Future Stars Friday” feature three juvenile races on turf and two on the dirt
The Friday card is the appetizer for Breeders’ Cup Saturday. The card contains no less than nine championship races. The headline race is the richest horse race run in North America, the $6 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Viewers this side of the Atlantic you can watch all the action live on ITV with the broadcaster covering all 14 championship races. Just sit back and enjoy some mouth-watering action.
There will be more in depth statistical previews of the Breeders Cup around the web. However, for those wanting more of a pin sticker’s guide then here it is. Friday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece. Saturday’s betting advice will be with you later in the week.
Breeders Cup – Friday
7:00 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 2) – 5 ½ f
It’s hard to knock the speedy The Platinum Queen, who ran a cracker when runner-up Nunthorpe before going on to win the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp. The UK bookies have her favourite, but she will do well to win from stall 12. At the prices I’m taking her on with Love Reigns. The Wesley Ward trained filly is very quick and I think she will stay the extra half furlong more strongly than the favourite. A winner of Listed race at Saratoga last time she bids to give the trainer 4th successive win in the race.
Selection: Love Reigns
7:40 – NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) – 1m ½ f
The first of the dirt juvenile contests. My initial fancy for this was Justique but she misses the race. I’m now torn between the first and third in last month Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont. Chocolate Gelato ran out the winner that day and is open to further progress. At best priced 7/2 I wouldn’t put you off her. Three & ¾ lengths back in third was Leave No Trace. A winner of her first two startsLeave No Trace was beaten fair and square that day, but she didn’t get the clearest of passages between the final two furlongs. A standout 12/1 with William Hill that looks rather generous to me. Neither filly is particularly well drawn but at the prices Leave No Trace look a decent each-way prospect here.
Selection: Leave No Trace
8:20 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) – 1m
William Hill’s were a standout 11/2 about Meditate last weekend that’s now gone and she’s a best priced 3/1 with the same bookmaker. A winner at Royal Ascot winner on quick ground and runner up in two Group 1s she should get the mile around here and has solid claims.
Despite this being a turf race the North American-based horses have dominated in recent years winning 12 of the last 14 renewals.
Ten of the last 14 winners also won their final prep race. Five of the last 14 winners ran in the Group 2 Miss Grillo Stakes last time and 3 the Group 1 Natalma Stakes. Just 2 ¾ length separated the first three home in the Miss Grillo and all three clash again. Pleasant Passage was battling winner that day with Free Look just ¾ length back in second. Both seem to have handy low draws, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pleasant Passage confirmed form with the runner-up. Both should go close though, and Free Look is trained by Chad Brown who has won this race four times since 2014 and had last years third.
Third home in the Miss Grillo Be Your Best was sent off favourite. Unbeaten on her first two starts she may be seen to better effect on quicker ground and can’t be totally dismissed.
Last Call seemed to show much improved form for the step up to a mile when winning Natalma Stakes at Woodbine last time. The time wasn’t great, but Frankie Dettori takes the ride, and she is handily berthed in stall 3. At around 14/1 she makes some each-way appeal.
Selections: Pleasant Passage and Last Call
9:00 – FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented By T’bred Aftercare Alliance (Grade 1) – 1m ½ f
This looks between the unbeaten Cave Rock who looks a potential dirt superstar and had produced some excellent times for a 2-year-old and Forte. The latter won a Grade 1 over C&D last time. He beat a bit of a hot pot in Loggins that day and he seemed to handle the Keeneland bends well. It’s hard to look past the front two in the betting but Forte’s C&D form just swings it for me.
Selection: Forte
9:40 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) – 1m
Unlike the fillies race the Europeans have dominated this in recent years. Charlie Appleby has won this three times since 2013 and he has the favourite in Silver Knott. His neck success from Epictetus in Newmarket’s Group 3 Autumn Stakes was boosted by the runner-up in the Futurity and it looks the best form on offer. The bookies have him at a best priced 11/8 and that sort of price I can happily let him win. Second in the ante post betting is the Aidan O’Brien trained Victoria Road. He’s got plenty of experience but has been steadily progressive and won a Group 3 at Chantilly last time.
Of the home team Andthewinneris and Major Dude appeal most. The first named won the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes over C&D last time and two of the last winners came out of that race. Now 2-2 at Keeneland he can’t be easily dismissed from stall 6. Major Dude won the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes T Belmont on his last start. Three of the last 14 winners of the race had run in the Pilgrim Stakes prior to Breeders Cup success. Major Dude was making his turf debut at Belmont and appreciated the Yielding surface. It’s likely to be different ground on Friday and he’s also drawn out wide in stall 13.
Selection: Andthewinneris
Breeders Cup – Saturday
Just the nine race to go through but the card is jam packed with interest and you get to see the World’s best racehorse run in the final race.
3:50 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) – 7f
It might be called a sprint but its run over 7f. Not a race I have looked at in much detail, but I do like the claims of last year’s winner Ce Ce. The mare has had a similar prep to last year and looked as good as ever when winning over an extended 6f at Santa Anita last month. This will be her final race as she heads to the paddocks after Saturday race. Granted it looks a deeper race than 12 months ago but like last year she seems to be coming into the race a but under the radar.
Selection: Ce Ce
4:29 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) – 5 ½ f
Highfield Princess could easily add another chapter to her fairy-tale success story. However, I’m taking on the mare with one of the home team Golden Pal. This is a home fixture for the speedy Golden Pal. Last year’s winner made it 4-4 over C&D when winning his prep last month and is 5-5 over the race distance. Provided there’s no serious rain I can’t see him being beaten around a bend. Ok stall 8 isn’t brilliant but he’s so fast he should get to the rail and then it will take a very good one to pass him.
Selection: Golden Pal
5:10 – Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) – 1m
I was hoping Jack Christopher would come here but his first preference is for the dirt sprint. That leaves me with Cyberknife. Trainer Brad Cox knows what required to win the race having saddled the winner in 2020. The 3-year-old is a dual Group 1 winner against his own age group and 3-year-old’s have won 3 last 5 renewals of the race. Not sure about stall 9 but he should give his backers a good run for their money in an open looking race.
Selection: Cyberknife
5:50 – Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) – 1m 1 /2 f
Double Group 1 winner Nashwa looks a solid favourite to give the Europeans a sixth win in the last seven years. Add in Epsom Oaks winner Tuesday and Above The Curve and you can see how strong a hand the British & Irish have. The best of the American’s could be Canadian trained filly Moira. Twice a winner on the synthetics at Woodbine. She was made favourite for the Grade 1 E P Taylor Stakes at Woodbine last month. However, she was caught behind runners and had nowhere to go 2f out. Her jockey then went for a gap on the rail but caused interference and although she finished a neck 2nd of 9 she was demoted to 8th. It was still a good effort from a filly having just her fourth career start and first start on the turf. There should be more to come from the 3-year-old with Frankie Dettori taking over in the saddle. Nashwa is the most likely winner, but Moira is potential each-way value.
Selection: Moira
6:30 – Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) – 6f
Smart sprinter Jackie’s Warrior only sixth in last year’s race was disappointing favourite when only 2nd of 7 at Saratoga 70-days ago. The bookies have made the colt favourite for this, but I think he’s going to be worth taking on despite having the best speed figures in the race.
Who with though? Jack Christopher who I thought was going to run here hasn’t been entered. Kimari is a speedy filly against her own sex and must be respected up against the boys. Last year’s winner Aloha West hasn’t been seen since winning at Churchill Downs in July and a recent run would have been preferred but he’s said to have been working well and another bold bid is expected.
Selection: Aloha West
7:10 – FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1) -1m
Modern Games will like the firm ground better than the good to soft he faced when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 9 to Bayside Boy in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot last time. He’s shown travelling holds no terrors when winning the Juvenile Turf last year and a Grade 1 at Woodbine in September. He’s a worthy favourite and is just preferred to the very much in form Kinross who bids for a Group 1/ Grade 1 hat trick. It would be some achievement if he was able to win over mile after 6f success last time. I think this will have been Modern Games’ target and he should be spot on here.
You can’t totally rule out Pogo out from stall 1. He may be better over 7f, but he looked as good as ever when winning a Group 2 at Newmarket last month.
Double Group 1 winner Dreamloper looks a big danger to the favourite. It was a career best effort from the mare when beating Order Of Australia in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp last time. She’s got a handy low draw in stall 3 and looks set for a big run. Order Of Australia won this race last year and a repeat bid can’t be ruled out, although he looks held by Dreamloper on their Longchamp running, this has likely been his target.
The best of the home team is Annapolis. The colt impressed when winning the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes over C&D last month with Order Of Australia back in third. He’s going the right way and if stall 11 doesn’t prove an inconvenience I can seem him going close.
Selections: Dreamloper and Annapolis
7:55 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1) – 1m 1f
Trainer Todd Pletcher has a strong hand in the race with Nest and Malathaat the front two in the betting. Nest has an excellent turn of foot for a dirt horse and this three time winning Grade 1 3-year-old comes into the race bidding for a four timer after a win in a Grade 2 at Belmont last month. Five time Grade 1 winner Malathaat is a year older than her stablemate. She was beaten ½ length into third in last years race but is 3-3 at Keeneland including a Grade 1 over C&D last month. It looks between these two fillies and I’m just going with Nest.
Selection: Nest
8:40 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) – 1m 4f
Another race the Europeans have dominated in recent years winning seven of the last nine renewals. Charlie Appleby won it last year and has two strong contenders in Nations Pride and Rebel’s Romance. The first namedhas already proved himself across the Atlantic. An unlucky ¾ length 2nd of 12 in the Belmont Derby. He’s since gone onto win at Saratoga and Belmont At The Big A. The latest of those success showed the 3-year-old stays 1m 4f and is the pick of William Buick. Rebel’s Romance stays 1m 4f very strongly having won a couple of Group 1’s in Germany but might not have the speed of his stablemate around here.
Three time Group 1 winner Mishriff hasn’t won since an impressive winner of last season’s International Stakes win at York. However, he was only beaten a neck by Vadeni in the Eclipse at Sandown in July. A poor run in the Arc last time, he didn’t like the soft ground and the blinkers go on for the first time. This track may not suit him, but he will like the forecast quick ground and isn’t totally out of it.
Broome was beaten ½ length by Yibir in last year’s race. He didn’t run to badly when an 8 length 8th of 20 in the Arc last time. A reproduction of last year’s performance would give him a chance.
The best of the locals is War Goddess. She comes into the race on the back of an impressive success in a Grade 1 at Belmont At The Big A last time. A strongly run race would suit her and she’s 2-2 over C&D. Fillies & mares have won three of the last seven renewals of the race and she’s got a good chance of making it a four.
Selection: War Goddess
9:40 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) – 1m 2f
Flightline is the best horse in the world and possibly the best US horse since Secretariat. He’s 5-5 and I don’t see any of his rivals getting close to him at the finish. Granted we know horses are not machines, but he would have to badly underperform not to win. He’s as close to a certainty as you’re ever going to get. If you can get on Bet365 are going 1/2 on his chance which is excellent value as he should be a 1/5. Again, if Bet365 let you at that price he should be the centrepiece of your Breeders Cup multiples.
Selection: Flightline
Breeders Cup Betting Advice – Friday
7:40 – Leave No Trace – 1pt win – 11/1 @ William Hill
8:20 – Pleasant Passage – 1pt win – 9/1 @ William Hill and Last Call – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Bet365
9:40 – Andthewinneris – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John