Hi all,
I hope you all had a good Christmas. We went to York to our lass’s sisters for a small family gathering of eleven and enjoyed a nice walk around a very quiet York City Centre.
Anyway, its back to business today and the start of a busy week or so of high-class racing. Apart from the Grade 1 King George VI at Kempton. There plenty of racing to get stuck into on Boxing Day with no less than 11 meetings across Britain & Ireland.
The best of the action is at Kempton but there’s also a good card at Wetherby. The ITV camera’s will be covering four races from Kempton and the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (2:10) from Wetherby as part of a five-race programme. Leopardstown sees the first of four days of exciting racing at its Christmas Festival. Meanwhile at Limerick the feature race is the Grade 1 BoyleSports Faugheen Novice Chase (2:40).
There are just 42 runners over six races at Kempton which is a disappointment. In comparison Wetherby’s seven race card, which seems likely to be run on soft ground, has attracted 80 runners.
Possibly the good ground has scared a few off but more likely the better class races, including the handicaps don’t attract big fields apart from at the Cheltenham Festival. Whilst on the subject of the weather. Kempton was being described as good on Christmas Eve but rain is forecast for Chrsitmas Day so fingers crossed it arrives makes it more like good to soft on Boxing Day.
I have concentrated today’s preview on the ITV races. Although two of my Boxing Day selections are not in the ITV races
Kempton
1:20 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
The first race on ITV and eight have stood their ground. The front three in the betting Bothwell Bridge, Danny Kirwan and Mister Coffey look strong and I will be surprised if one of them doesn’t win.
Bothwell Bridge looked the sort to do well over fences when novice hurdling last season and so it proved when he won on his chase debut at Sandown earlier this month. He’s up 5lb but open firther improvement.
Danny Kirwan failed to deliver what I had been anticipated over hurdles. However, the 8-year-old always had the size to better over the larger obstacles. He made a highly encouraging chase debut when a 3-length 2nd of 5 at Cheltenham 65-days ago, A winner of a bumper here. All three of his career wins have come going right-handed and he jumped last time like he will be suited returning to going this way around.
Mister Coffey, a stablemate of Bothwell Bridge, looks to have been rejected by Nico De Boinville. However, he seems to have a similar chance to his stablemate. The 6-year-old has produced some decent form over hurdles and he bettered that when a 4 ¼ length 3rd of 5 on his chase debut at Newbury last month. Like Bothwell Bridge he’s capable of better.
1:55 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m
Four go to post for the Grade 1 contest but in reality it’s a two horse race between Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor. Its not betting race but looks set to be a cracker provided there are no mishaps for the big two. Bravemansgame jumped better than Ahoy Senor last time but a strongly run 3m could stretch the 6-year-old stamina. The easing of the ground to good to soft will suit Ahoy Senor and he’s one of the horse’s I have really looking forward to see run over the Christmas period after is exciting win at Newbury last time.
2:30 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m
A disappointing field of just five are set to meet the starter for this Grade 1 contest. The mare Epatante heads the overnight betting The 2020 Champion Hurdle winner and winner of this race in 2019 was beaten in this race last year at long odds on. She dead heated with Not So Sleepy in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on her seasonal return.
Not So Sleepy like to be at the head of affairs and seems likely to get an uncontested lead. That could be crucial today and I’m surprised given the pace set up that he’s so much bigger a best priced 3/1 compared to Epatante.
Both Soaring Glory and Tritonic are high class handicap hurdlers but you wouldn’t be surprised if either won here. I think the first named could do both a strong gallop to chase which he probably won’t get here. Tritonic won the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Ascot just 8-days ago. A previous C&D (Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle in February) winner, the 4-year-old goes well on a flat right-handed track. Provided the race doesn’t come to quick the 4-year-old he could give the front two in the betting most to do. Although Since 2000 no 4-year-old has one the Christmas Hurdle.
3:05 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m
Nine runners and all the big names have stood their ground for the big race of the festive period, The only one not to declare was a my big priced each way fancy Dashel Drasher.
The ante post betting is headed by Clan Des Obeaux who bids for a third win in the race. He was very disappointing in last year’s race but he came into the contest on the back of a hard race in the Betfair Chase. No such issues this year as the King George will be the 9-year-old’s first start since winning at the Punchestown Festival in April. This is his track and his main target of the season. We also know trainer Paul Nicholls will have spot on fitness wise for this. A worthy favourite. I think so.
Clan Des Obeaux stablemate Frodon won last year’s race and must be respected. However, the 9-year-old did get the race run to suit 12 months ago and I don’t think Bryony will be allowed to dictate the pace as she did last year.
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo seems likely to come over for the race. The 8-year-old finished 5 lengths behind Frodon at Down Royal on his seasonal reappearance. However, he will be sharper for that run and needed it more than Frodon. Three mile around Kempton could be on the sharp side for him, especially on good ground but a decent pace will suit and if the ground does his stamina will come into play.
Asterion Forlonge, trained by Willie Mullins, seems a likely runner. He looked the most likely winner of the Grade 1 John Durkan at Punchestown when making a mistake an unseating his rider three out. I don’t doubt his ability to win a race like this but will his jumping hold up.
Nicky Henderson is bullish about the chances of double Grade 1 Novice Chaser Chantry House. The 7-year-old looked high class chase prospect when winning at Cheltenham & Aintree last season. Granted he does need to improve again to win a race like this. However, 3m around Kempton looks perfect for him.
3:40 – On To Victory useful on the flat won the 2020 November Handicap at Doncaster (soft). He’s 2-11 over hurdles winning novice hurdles at Wincanton & Warwick last season. The 7-year-old as disappointed on both starts over hurdles this autumn but looks a worth another try over 2m 5f, finished 2nd of 12 over C&D in February 2020. Not the most reliable but he’s nicely treated if bouncing back to form.
Wetherby
2:10 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m
The feature race of seven race card at the West Yorkshire track is the 3m William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (2:10). There was a decent looking entry at the five-day declaration stage.
Silver Hallmark heads the ante post betting. The 7-year-old who’s only had three starts over fences shaped well when a 10 ¼ length 4th of 6 to Fiddlerontheroof in The Colin Parker Intermediate Chase at Carlisle on his seasonal return. Open to further improvement. He looks on a good mark for his handicap chase debut. The forecast soft ground is a plus although his stamina for 3m must be proved.
Empire Steel missed the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase. The 7-year-old returned from an 8-month absence with an excellent 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 to Strictlyadancer at Haydock (good) last month. Softer ground won’t inconvenience the 7-year-old and he looks sure to be there or thereabouts.
Lake View Lad won this race in 2018. The 11-year-old won the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase at Aintree last December and finished a good 7th of 22 in last season’s Scottish Grand National. The more rain the better his chance, as his very best form has come on soft and heavy ground. His form figures at Wetherby are 113 and his record in December is 4 wins from 8 runs +30 7 placed. He had a nice pipe opener for this when 3rd of 11 in a veteran’s chase at Haydock 25-days. Trainer Nick Alexander enters the Christmas period in great form with 5 winners from 12 runners +7.57 in the past two weeks. Ok. He’s vulnerable to younger progressive types like Silver Hallmark and Empire Steel. But at 12/1 with Bet365 & Paddy Power (both paying 4 places), he looks each way value to me.
Leopardstown
1:45 – Given the form of the Joseph O’Brien it worth taking a chance on Banbridge in this 2m handicap hurdle. The 5-year-old was in good form in the spring early summer winning a Killarney bumper before going to win novice hurdles at Punchestown and Roscommon. Poor run with a double penalty at Galway when last seen in action July. Has been given 150-day break since and with Shane Fitzgerald taking 5lb off the top-weight back he’s got to be respected here on his handicap debut.
Betting Advice:
Kempton
3:05 – 1pt win – Chantry House – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – 1pt win – On To Victory – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Wetherby
2:10 – 1pt each way – Lake View Lad – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (Both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Leopardstown
1:45 – 1pt win – Banbridge – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Cheers
John