Hi all,
Newbury and Kelso provide the best of the action in Britain this afternoon. With the ITV4 cameras covering the best of the action from both venues. Plus, as a bonus they’re also taking three races from World Cup Night at Meydan.
For those of you who prefer the flat, like I do, the Irish turf season gets underway at the Curragh this afternoon. The highlight of an eight race card is the latest renewal of the Paddy Power Irish Lincolnshire (3:35).
Saturday’s selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
I’m going to start today’s Preview at where else but Meydan.
Meydan
There’s a veritable feast of Group 1 action on World Cup Night. There are three Group 1’s on the turf and two on the dirt. The $10 million Dubai World Cup (4:35) on the dirt concludes what looks like an excellent Meydan card.
Algiers, trained by Simon & Ed Crisford, heads the betting for the World Cup. He’s won both his starts on the Meydan dirt and should go well. However, he does face some tough rivals including the Bob Baffert trained Country Grammar who won last year’s race.
In addition to last year’s winner, Algiers also faces a host of high class Japanese dirt horses. It’s going to be a tough ask for the Crisford gelding. I have a feeling this valuable purse will be heading to Japan but I have no real idea which of the eight Japanese trained runners will do it.
I’m concentrating on the turf races and the first race to come under the microscope is the Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup.
12:40 – Dubai Gold Cup – 2m
Subjectivist comfortably won this 2021 before going to win the Ascot Gold Cup that summer. Injured after his Ascot success the 6-year-old returned from 618-day absence with a 10 length 12th of 13 in a Group 3 in Saudi Arabia last month. Not surprisingly he was plenty fresh that day and he will strip much fitter today. Provided he doesn’t bounce he’s capable of another success in the race.
Siskany had Ardakan 2 length back in second when winning the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy (1m 6f) here last month. The race suited the winner who was more handily placed of the pair. Whilst both horses should be suited to the step up to 2m. I just prefer the claims of Ardakan who would have preferred a stronger gallop last time.
1:15 – Al Quoz Sprint – 6f
Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking for Hong Kong trained challenger Sight Success. The 7-year-old is a smart sprinter over 5f/6f and if he translates his best form to Meydan would be the one to beat.
Al Suhail has won both his starts at Meydan this winter. Both those successes have come over 7f. The 6-year-old is in the form of his career and the drop back to 6f shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience for him as he doesn’t seem to lack pace.
Al Dasim has been in excellent form since coming over to Meydan, winning all three starts including a Group 3 over C&D on Super Saturday. The 3-year-old beat the older horse’s last time. In deeper but if he continues his improvement, he won’t be far away.
Ladies Church was returning for the first time since September when short head 2nd of 12 in a Group 2 here over the minimum trip last month. Must show she’s as good over 6f though but if she is, then she’s sure to be in the mix.
3:10 – Dubai Turf – 1m 1f
Lord North won this race two years ago and dead heated for first12 months ago. He proved his well being for this when comfortably winning the Winter Derby at Lingfield 28 days ago.
Vin De Garde was a three 3 length runner-up to Lord North in 2021 and was a nose third in last year’s race. He’s been down the field in both subsequent starts, but this will have been the plan. Drawn out wide in stall 14 is a slight negative but his C&D form makes him of plenty of interest.
Serifos like Vin De Garde is another Japanese challenger with strong claims. The 4-year-old won a Grade 1 in Japan on his latest start and a reproduction of that performance would see him go close here. He has a handy low draw in stall 5 and races in the first time hood.
Real World was a big disappointment when only a 7 ½ length 10th of 14 in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta over C&D on Super Saturday. If he reproduced his 1 ¾ length 2nd of 7 to Baaeed in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot he would be hard to keep out of the frame. However, he does have questions to answer after his lifeless run last time.
Nations Pride, fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf on his final start last season, wasn’t inconvenienced by the drop back to 1m 2f when winning a Group 3 here last month. He gave weight to his rivals that day and provided they go a good gallop he got to have a good chance. Albeit he’s drawn out wides of all in stall 16.
4:00 – Longines Dubai Sheema Classic – 1m 4f
Japanese challenger Equinox is a likely hot favourite. The 4-year-old has won his last two starts in Grade 1 company on good to firm ground. He’s only had six career starts so is capable of even better form than he’s shown so far.
Equinox’s biggest rival looks to be a fellow Japanese challenger Shahryar. The 5-year-old won last year’s race and ended last season with a ¾ length 2nd of 18 in the Japan Cup. Another big run can be expected from him here.
Westover probably found the ground plenty soft enough when a 7 ¼ length 6th of 20 in last season’s Arc. He’s better judged on last season’s win in the Irish Derby. Won first time up last season so can go fresh and should be there or thereabouts with Ryan Moore a good booking for the colt.
Rebel’s Romance completed a five timer back in Europe last season winning two Group 1’s in Germany before finishing this season with a career best when beating 12 rivals in the Breeders Cup Turf at Keeneland. Stall 10 could be better, but the gelding looks sure to go close.
Mostahdaf bounced back from a poor run in the Arc to win a Group 3 in Saudi Arabia (1m 2 ½ f) last month. The 5-year-old goes well on quick ground. Stays 1m 4f and isn’t without a chance.
Win Marilyn and Botanik were first and second in a Group 1 Hong Kong Vase in December. The runner-up had the run of the race and Win Marilyn did well to win given she had to make her effort from out wide in the straight. The mares’ connections will be disappointed if she can’t confirm form with the runner-up and could be capable of better.
Curragh
3:25 – Paddy Power Irish Lincolnshire (Premier Handicap) – 1m
British challenger Totally Charming was a progressive handicapper last season. Ended last season with a 7f handicap success on heavy ground at Doncaster in November. Up 8lb but the return to a mile will suit. Colin Keane booked for the ride and the 7-year-old must be high on the shortlist.
No More Porter is a previous C&D winner and isn’t badly treated on his first start since joining Adrian McGuinness yard. Stablemates Casanova who was 4th in last year’s race and Comfort Line who was runner-up 12 months ago have claims. The latter is making his first start for the yard and is on a competitive looking mark.
Good Heavens hasn’t run well on either starts over hurdles this winter. However, he got to be respected on his neck 2nd of 25 in last season’s Irish Cambridgeshire over C&D. Better expected back on the level but really testing ground asks a new question of the 4-year-old.
Mashoor won a handicap here over 1m 2f last May before finishing last on quick ground at Royal Ascot. First run since June and today’s ground will suit the 5-year-old more.
I’m going conclude today’s preview with a quick look at the best of the action on ITV4 from Newbury & Kelso
Newbury
There was plenty of rain at Newbury on Friday and the racing turned very attritional. Pearly Island showed a liking for soft ground when winning a handicap hurdle at Fontwell 17-days ago. He’s 6lb higher in a deeper race but can’t be discounted.
Atlanta Brave looked to need all the 2m 5f distance when winning at Hereford 54-days ago. Not sure the drop back to 2m 3f is a positive on handicap debut but the more testing ground will bring the progressive 5-year-old’s stamina into play.
2:05 – Heltenham has improved with each of his four starts over fences this season. He’s up 7lb for his latest win at Ffos Las but he’s only a 6-year-old and remains open to further improvement. The one to beat.
Super Six is another handicap chaser going the right way. He jumped soundly when winning at Haydock 35-days ago. Has more on his plate here but is going the right way and should be fine on the testing ground.
2:35 – British EBF BetVictor ‘National Hunt’ Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (A Limited Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Plenty of mares that are capable of further improvement going forward. In what is the most competitive race on the Newbury card.
Here are a few that have caught my eye.
Moviddy ‘s yard won last year’s race and the 7-year-old has likely been aimed at this race. A winner of a Lingfield novice two starts back she finished a close-up second at Doncaster 22-days ago and remains progressive.
Ruby Island is the first of two Northern trained contenders. The 6-year-old won her first two starts over hurdles and looked a shade unlucky not to complete the hat trick when a neck 2nd of 9 at Ayr 15-days ago.
The second Northern trained challenger I like is Aubis Walk trained by Nicky Richards. The 7-yeat-old got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles when running out a comfortable winner at Sedgefield last month. Open to further improvement and looks on a workable mark for her handicap debut.
Lets Go To Vegas had to dig deep to prevail on her handicap hurdle debut at Ludlow 23-days ago. There was plenty to like about the mare’s attitude that day an although she’s 5lb higher in a likely deeper race so she shouldn’t be underestimated.
Blue Beach got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a mares maiden hurdle at Huntingdon last month. That probably isn’t the strongest piece of form on offer but she’s open to further improvement and gets the first time cheekpieces today.
Kelso
1:50 – Coral Blue has already had a good season and gained a third success when successful at Ayr 26-days ago. Despite having had 39 career starts the 8-year-old looks to be on the upgrade and could be capable of defying a 7lb rise. The booking of Sean Bowen takes the eye, and he can go close.
2:25 – Jet Legs gained a well-deserved success over hurdles at the 9th attempt when beating 11 rivals at Wetherby 19-days ago. Up 5lb for that win but the very highly regarded Patrick Wadge takes off a handy 5lb. The further they went at Wetherby the better he looked so the step up to 3m 2f could elicit more progress in the 6-year-old.
Spike Jones is another inform contender. The 6-year-old won at Fontwell 7-days ago. This is a deeper race, but he should go well given his present form.
Inis Oirr beat last Saturday’s Kempton winner Outlaw Peter at Musselburgh two starts back. Never got competitive when last of six in the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock. Back in calmer waters and remains capable of better.
3:00 – Likely favourite Bonttay could be on a good mark on her handicap hurdle debut and has to be respected racing in the first time cheekpieces.
Ruth Jefferson has booked Patrick Wadge to take off a handy 5lb from Autumn Return and that could make all the difference here.
Jane Du Berlais got off the mark on her second attempt over hurdles when winning a Lingfield novice two starts back. Ran well under her penalty when a 5 ¾ length 3rd of 11 at Wetherby 49-days ago. Looks interesting on handicap hurdle debut from looks a workable mark.
3:35 – Forward Plan comes into this Class2 handicap chase seeking the hat trick after improved wins at Southwell. Up 10lb for his latest success but is open to further improvement over fences. Looks a worthy enough favourite.
Elvis Mail seemed to prove his stamina for 3m when a 9 ½ length 3rd of 11 to Copper’s Cross in the valuable Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster in January. He’s well suited to Kelso, a three time winner here over hurdles, but 3m 2f asks another question of the 9-year-old’s stamina.
Sandy Thomson saddles a couple of live contenders in Doyen Breed and Hill Sixteen. The former was a useful novice chaser last season. He pulled up in the Edinburgh National on his first start over fences this season but was back to form when 4 ¼ length 2nd of 3 to Minella Drama here (2m 5 ½ f) last month. Today’s3m 2f should suit him better and he’s not badly treated if building on his Ayr performance. Ryan Mania takes the ride in preference of his stablemate.
Hill Sixteen is a thorough stayer and he’s on my Grand National shortlist. The 10-year-old has plenty of form at Kelso including when a 6 length 3rd of 10 to Sounds Russian in October. Not disgraced when 7th of 22 in the Becher Chase at Aintree in December. First run since a wind operation and any further ease in the ground will suit the 10-year-old.
Betting Advice:
Meydan
12:20 – Ardakan – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365
3:10 – Vin De Garde – 1pt each way – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places) and Nations Pride – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:00 – Shahryar – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Bet365 and Rebel’s Romance – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365
Curragh
3:25 – Good Heavens – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes, Comfort Line – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Casanova – 1pt win – 25/1 @ Bet365
Newbury
1:30 – Atlanta Brave – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
2:40 – Moviddy – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Blue Beach – 1pt win -12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Kelso
1:50 – Coral Blue – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral
3:00 – Autumn Return – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John