Hi all,
It’s the last Saturday before Cheltenham we have racing from two courses on ITV today. There are four races from Sandown and three from Wolverhampton.
Fingers crossed we’ll see racing at Sandown this afternoon. The course must pass a precautionary morning inspection due to the threat of overnight frost. Provided temperatures haven’t dropped below the forecast -2C the track should be raceable. Anything below that and I suspect we’re going to lose the days feature meeting.
The field sizes for Sandown’s two valuable handicap hurdles have stood up well. Seventeen have been declared for the European Breeders’ Fund Betfair ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final (1:50). And a field of 18 are to meet the starter in the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (2:25).
Wolverhampton hosts its most valuable card of the year this afternoon. The new flat season at Doncaster is just three weeks away and Wolverhampton has a Lincoln Trial. The Spreadex Sports Lincoln Trial Handicap (2:05) has £25,770 on offer to the winner and it’s attracted maximum field of 13.
The most valuable race on the Wolverhampton card is the Listed Spreadex Sports Lady Wulfruna Stakes (2:40) where eight horses compete for the winner prize of £32,608.
In today’s preview I look at the best of the action from Sandown & Wolverhampton and my selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Sandown
What a difference five days can make to the going. On Monday evening it was good ground at Sandown. The recent rain/snow has seen the going switch quickly to soft, heavy in places on the chase course and heavy, soft in places on the hurdle course.
1:50 – European Breeders’ Fund Betfair ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final – 2m 4f
A race which normally throws up plenty of future winners and this year’s race will be no exception.
Five of the last fifteen were trained by Paul Nicholls and Fergal O’Brien. Nicholls is 4 winners from 15 runners 27% +14.5 7 placed and O’Brien is 1 winner from 6 runners 17% +9 4 placed (+19) since 2008.
Nicholls saddles – Henri The Second, Hugos New Horse & Twin Power and O’Brien saddles Crambo. All three of the Nicholls runners are previous course winners with Henri The Second and Twin Power both having won over C&D.
All the Nicholls runners need respect. Hugos New Horse is going the right way and looks a nice prospect for chasing next season. No easy task off a mark 130 against some unexposed types but Angus Cheleda takes off a handy 5lb which is helpful. I just prefer the claims of Twin Power of the three. He’s now run well twice over C&D and looks to be progressive. The ground will be different to last time but if he handles can get into the money.
Crambo won on hurdle debut at Ascot before looking outclassed in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle. He bounced back to winning ways when dropped in class at Bangor last month. Looks on fair mark for his handicap debut and is respected.
As expected, Cuthbert Dibble relished the step up to 2m 4f when comfortably winning a Leicester novice hurdle last month. He now goes handicapping off a workable mark and will enjoy the easing ground.
Churchills Boy bids for the hat trick after novice hurdle wins at Plumpton & Fontwell. Both thos successes came on soft ground and the 6-year-old looks capable of more progression.
2:25 – Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 2m
The last six renewals of the Imperial Cup have been run on soft ground and a seventh seems likely.
The Imperial Cup has a long history and it used to be one of the most prestigious hurdle races in the calendar.
For many years it was one of the coveted handicap hurdles of the season. Today less so. Its proximity to Cheltenham and the emphasis on the festival means that the County Hurdle seems to take precedence with connections.
Last year’s winning trainer Peter Fahey brings over Zoffany Bay. He will not be anywhere near 20/1 like last year’s winner. Indeed, he’s been vying for favouritism in the ante post betting.
The 9-year-old returned from a 700-day absence to finish a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 12 at Ascot 3 weeks ago. He showed that day that he retains plenty of ability. Peter Fahey is a good target trainer, but you would have to be concerned about the dreaded ‘bounce’.
Paul Nicholls saddled the 2019 winner and had three entries but relies on just one Iceo.
Iceo returned from a 10 month absence when 3 length 2nd of 10 to Hardy Du Seuil over C&D in January. He’s unexposed in handicap company and was only beaten by a race fit rival last time.
Hardy Du Seuil was strong at the finish when winning over C&D (soft) last time. Granted he’s up 4lb but the rain has eased the ground and I can see him going well.
Monviel was doing his best work at the finish when a 13 ½ length 5th of 16 in the Betfair Hurdle. Any ease in the ground would suit. He’s only had six starts over hurdles, and I think he’s capable of better still. A winner over C&D last season and he’s high on my shortlist.
Man O Work is another Irish challenger with claims. A faller early in a handicap won by Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown last month. Prior to that the 5-year-old had run well in two starts in valuable handicap hurdles in Ireland and isn’t discounted.
The ante post market mover this week has been Playful Saint. Runner-up to Love Envoi over C&D two starts back. The 8-year-old took advantage of a drop in class to comfortably win a heavy ground Leicester handicap last time. Up 7lb but relishes testing ground and you can see why the money has come in for him.
Metier is classy at his best and won the Grade 1 2021 Tolworth Hurdle over C&D on heavy ground. It will be no easy task for top weight under 12-00 but he is 3-3 over hurdles on heavy ground and won the November Handicap on heavy. If it does turn out to be heavy, he’s very much in the mix.
3:00 – British Stallion Studs EBF Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) – 2m
Harry Fry won this in 2019 and he runs Goodtimecrew in this years race. The 5-year-old made a winning debut for the trainer when winning a Wincanton bumper last month. Soft or heavy ground would be a bit of an unknown, but she looked a nice prospect at Wincanton and Sandown’s stiffer track should suit her.
Point winner Casa No Mento made a winning debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies at Hereford and is another good prospect for hurdling but could be good enough here.
Mercian Omen was green on her racecourse debut when 2nd of 9 at Wetherby in November. It was very soft that day so underfoot conditions shouldn’t phase here. Open to improvement and not dismissed.
March Wind is rare Sandown runner for Scottish trainer Sandy Thomson. The 6-year-old is bred to appreciate 2m 4f+. However, she was encouraging 3 length 2nd of 10 at Wetherby on her racecourse debut and needs considering.
Trainer Kim Bailey has gone 58-days and 35 runners without a winner otherwise I would be very interested in his runner Saint Bibiana.
Saint Bibiana got off the mark at the fourth attempt when winning at Uttoxeter in December. It was heavy that day and she showed a good attitude to prevail last time. Bailey saddled the winner in 2021 and 2013 so he knows what’s required and his mare is high on the shortlist despite the yard’s form.
3:35 – Betfair Daily Multiples Offer At Cheltenham Novices’ Handicap Chase – 2m 4f
A disappointing turn out for this Premier Handicap with just six set to meet the starter.
Easy As That bids for the hat trick after wins at Wetherby and latterly Newcastle two weeks ago. He jumped well when running out a 10 length winner last time. He’s up 9lb for that success but is a worthy favourite and he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet.
Baron De Midleton is more exposed than his five rivals but he showed the benefit of wind surgery when posting a career best on RPR’s when winning at Newcastle 14-days ago. Now 6lb higher in a deeper race but not totally discounted.
Gary Moore, who won this in 2017 runs Hudson De Grugy. A four time winner over hurdles, all on soft or heavy ground, has yet to win on four starts over fences and there are likely strong candidates.
No Risk Des Flos made it 2-4 since going chasing when beating four rivals at Wetherby 44-days ago. He’s up 5lb but has the potential to rate higher over fences once his jumping improves. Testing ground suits though and he looks the biggest rival to the favourite.
Wolverhampton
Whatever the fate if Sandown’s morning inspection There shouldn’t be any problems with racing at Wolverhampton this afternoon.
1:30 – Huge Daily Boosts Only BetUK Handicap – 6f
Sir Robin looked like a smart sprinter in the making when winning at Southwell two starts back. Not at that same level of form when a 3 lengths 5th of 8 to Diligent Harry at Newcastle last time but could easily bounce back here.
Previous C&D winner Cuban Breeze was in good form in 2022and remains 4lb above her last winning mark. Returns from a 126-day break here but has gone well fresh and the booking of Osin Murphy is an eye-catching one.
Ingra Tor, a winner on the tapeta at Southwell last March had looked set for a good season when winning on handicap debut at Newmarket in April. Not at the same level on subsequent starts and returns today for the first time since August. Gelded since and did win first time up last year. Handy draw in stall 3 and can bounce back this year.
Dubai Station is now 3lb below his last winning mark and ended last year with a solid ¾ length 3rd of 9 over C&D. Not seen at his best on a return from a 4 month absence when 5th of 7 here (5f) 28-days ago. That was the 6-year-old’s first run for Stuart Williams, and he will no doubt exploit his present mark soon enough. In the mix here but drawn out wide in stall 9 today.
2:05 – Spreadex Sports Lincoln Trial Handicap – 1m ½ f
As trial’s go it hasn’t got a great record when it comes to the Lincoln Handicap – 0 winners from 39 runners 5 placed have run in the race prior to going to Doncaster. I suspect we won’t be seeing this year’s Lincoln winner here today.
Notre Belle Bete is 8lb higher than when winning this corresponding race 12 months ago. That said he’s likely to make a bold bid for back to back successes. The 5-year-old returned from a 3 month layoff with a strong finishing ¾-length 2nd of 8 at Lingfield 14-days ago. Yard among the winners and high on the shortlist.
Unforgotten is arguably the most interesting of the 13 runners. The very lightly raced 5-year-old from the John & Thady Gosden yard is still in the ownership of Godolphin and has returned from 659-day absence to win twice at Lingfield last month. Up 4lb for his latest win but given he’s only had five career starts there could be more to come from the gelding.
Alrehb took his all-weather record to 4 wins from 8 starts when returning from a 121-day break to beat ten rivals at Southwell (1m) in January. He had a bit more in hand than the official margin of ½ length suggests so a 4lb rise in the weights isn’t insurmountable given his progressive and consistent all-weather profile.
2:40 – Spreadex Sports Lady Wulfruna Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f
Just the eight for the Wolverhampton feature.
Angel Bleu, a smart 2-year-old winning the Group 1’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp and a Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. Not quite at his best on three starts as a 3-year-old although he did end the season with a 4 ¼ lengths 5th of 7 to Baaeed in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Takes a big drop in class for his return to action on all-weather debut and should be bang there if back to his best.
Tinker Toy hasn’t been seen to best effect on his last two starts at 6f but 7f is his trip (3 wins from 6 starts). Nicely positioned in a steadily run race when winning this 12 months ago. Likely to get the same set up here and another big run is expected. However, he does have 10lb to find with Angel Bleu on Official Ratings and if that one returns to his best will be tough to beat.
Betting Advice:
Sandown
1:50 – Churchills Boy – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Twin Power – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Monviel – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Hardy Du Seuil – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Saint Bibiana – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power
Wolverhampton
1:30 – Dubai Station – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:05 – Alrehb – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John