Hi all,
It’s the biggest weekend of the year for Irish flat racing.
Irish Champions Day at Leopardstown tomorrow and the Curragh on Sunday will provide high class action and betting opportunities. The racing this side of the Irish Sea isn’t too bad either with the highlight quality wise being Haydock’s Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup.
ITV Racing are covering no less than 10 races live from four courses this afternoon including the Leopardstown Group 1’s.
The summer weather is going to hold on for another day if the weather forecast is correct. It’s going to be dry at all the tracks on Saturday. Plenty of rain is forecast for the Curragh on Sunday so that’s something to keep an eye on.
I have looked at most of Saturday’s big races. However, for the sake of brevity I have concentrated on those races where there are selections.
I’m beginning Saturday’s preview at Haydock and today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Haydock
1:50 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3) – 1m
Light Infantry is the one to beat if he reproduces his best form which includes a 3rd of 11 to Inspiral in the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last month.
Zoology was an excellent 1 length 2nd of 15 in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes (7f) at Royal Ascot. This is first run for new trainer Harry Eustace and first since Royal Ascot and has to be respected.
Sir Busker is having his first start since down the field in the Group 1 Dubai Turf at Meydan in March. He’s only got 3lb to find with Light Infantry on Official Rating’s and if he’s ready to roll after a long break must be seriously considered.
2:25 – Get Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f
The Aidan O’Brien trained Denmark was an excellent 1 ¾ length 2nd of 13 to Middle Earth in the Melrose Handicap at York 14 days ago. The colt is 5lb higher here but has only had four career starts and may not have finished progressing.
Naqeeb finished a nose second to Middle Earth in a Newmarket novice two starts back has since gone onto win a Kempton novice. A mark of 100 on handicap debut is fair and he should be in the shake up with more improvement to come.
Blindedbythelights looks an improving middle distance handicapper. A winner of two of his four starts this season and runner-up on the other two. The return to quick ground should suit as should the step up to 1m 6f. He’s up several notches in class here but is at the right end of the handicap.
3:00 – Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f
For me arguably the most competitive race on the Haydock card. Fifteen are set to line-up for this year’s race but the possibility of quick ground could see some non-runners.
Aztec Empire won twice on the all-weather earlier in the year and has run well on his last two starts on turf, finishing a neck 2nd of 14 at York (2m) last month. I’m not sure about the drop back to 1m 6f but he remains a big contender.
Caius Chorister was a big improver last year, winning five times in a productive season. Bounced back from a couple of lesser performances when 3 length 6th off 22 in the Ebor Handicap last time. The filly has been dropped 2lb since York and is likely to be thereabouts.
Euchen Glen won this corresponding race in 2020 and ran cracker when a 2 ¼ length 4th of 22 in the Ebor Handicap last time. Now 3lb worse off with Caius Chorister and needs a strong pace given he’ll be dropped in from stall 10. He’s got a decent chance.
Sea King went close in the 3-year-old handicap (1m 6f) on this card 12 month ago. Lightly raced since he returned from a 3 month layoff when making all to beat three rivals at Goodwood 13 days ago. Now 3lb higher in a deeper race but has to be high on the shortlist.
3:35 – Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
I’m struggling to see who beats Shaquille on quick ground in Saturday’s Betfair Sprint Cup. The 3-year-old is a best priced 5/6 and although I don’t back under evens his odds reflect his true chance.
It’s not the strongest renewal of the race. Take out the favourite and there’s plenty in with each way claims including Regional and Khadeem.
Regional has been progressive this season and ran another good race in defeat when a 2 ¼ length 5th of 16 in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York last time. He’s well suited to quick ground and looks worth a return to 6f. He’s a best priced 16/1 at the time of writing but as you saw in yesterday’s column horses returned 12/1 & bigger are – 0 winners from 75 runners, 7 placed.
The same odds comment applies to Khadeem who is a best priced 25/1 in the ante post betting. The 7-year-old has a better chance than his odds suggest. He got the quick ground and a strong pace he needs when winning the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He didn’t have his ground, or the race run to suit when a 3 ½ length 5th of 8 to Shaquille in the July Cup and was a 3 ½ length 7th of 16 in the Nunthorpe Stakes last time. He has a length to find with Regional on his York form. However, a strongly run 6f will suit the 7-year-old.
Betfair Sprint Cup Verdict: Shaquille is the best horse in the race and if he runs to his July Cup winning form he wins. Both Regional & Khadeem have place claims. Of that pair I do think Khadeem is overpriced at 25/1. Ok he’s not the most consistent but on a going day he would outrun those odds.
Ascot
2:35 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
The two that catch my eye here are Hickory and Bless Him.
Hickory’s trainer James Fanshawe could have run last years winner Fresh instead he relies on the 5-year-old who was back to his best when a ½ length 2nd of 25 to Baradar in International Stakes (handicap) over C&D 42 days ago. He’s now 2lb higher but looks to have a good chance of going one place better.
Bless Him might be a 9-year-old but he showed last year that he was still capable of being competitive in handicaps like this. Ascot’s straight track very well and he’s going to get his favoured quick ground. I’m surprised he’s still available at 14/1.
3:10 – Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Just nine 3-year-old handicappers are set to line-up, but you can make strong claims for five of them.
Gallant Lion completed a handicap four timer when winning at Windsor 23 days ago. A 3lb rise isn’t excessive and he’s one of the leading contenders.
Alsakib won at Chester and Windsor and wasn’t disgraced when 7 ¼ length 3rd of 15 on handicap debut at Goodwood last month. I don’t think the soft ground suited him the last day but a step up to 1m 4f isn’t certain to suit on pedigree. If he stays an improves he’ll be in the mix.
Victory Dance gets the first time blinkers and could be suited by the step up to 1m 4f on handicap debut.
Dancing In Paris has been running well of late without winning. He posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 10 at Chepstow 30 days ago. Nudged up 3lb but should go well although he may be vulnerable to any better treated rivals.
True Legend looked like an improving middle distance handicapper whenwinning at Salisbury and finishing runner-up in a handicap at the Glorious Goodwood. Ran well for a long way but probably didn’t stay 1m 6f when 8th of 13 in the Melrose Handicap at York. In the mix dropped back in trip.
Kempton
1:35 – Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
The least interesting race on ITV this afternoon. Group 1 Champion Stakes winner Bay Bridge hasn’t been at his best on three starts this season. He’s the clear best of his six rivals on Official Ratings and takes a drop down in class here. It’s the 5-year-old’s first start at 1m 4f but he should stay and this is a great opportunity for him to return to winning ways.
2:10 – Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap (Series Final) (Class 2) – 1m
There are better quality races on what can be called ‘Super Saturday’ but there are few as competitive as this contest. Eight of the 14 declared runners are separated by 3lb on Timeform Ratings.
Baltimore Boy and First View were first and second in a qualifier over C&D 24 days ago and First View is just 1lb better off at the weights and there shouldn’t be much between the pair once more. Baltimore Boy seemed to appreciate the first time visor last time but isn’t the most consistent of handicappers but should get the strong pace he needs and if the headgear works once more, he’ll be bang there.
Kathab looks a worthy enough favourite. He couldn’t complete the hat trick when 1 ¼ length 3rd of 8 at Ripon 12 days ago. He didn’t seem to like the track last time and a return to a more conventional course is a plus. Looks to have solid claims on all-weather debut.
Rhythm N Rock is a previous C&D winner and was a neck 2nd of 13 in a qualifier over C&D when last seen in action 65 days ago. The 5-year-old has produced some of his best performances when fresh so his absence isn’t a concern.
Botas arguably produced a career best when winning over C&D 24 days ago. A 2lb rise in the weights for his latest win makes him vulnerable in a deeper race but he could get into the places.
Leopardstown
I have had a look at the two Group 1’s being broadcast on ITV Racing this afternoon.
2:45 – Matron Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Dermot Weld has a strong hand in the race with Tahiyra (6/5) and Homeless Songs (8/1). The first named won the Irish 1,000 Guineas and followed up in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. The one they all must beat if at her best here.
Homeless Songs won last year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas but didn’t’ really kick on two subsequent starts last season. Hasn’t been seen since finishing runner-up in a Listed race over C&D in April. Has run well fresh in the past and if she was at her very best would give her stablemate a race.
Meditate looks held by Tahiyra on their form earlier in the season. However, the Aidan O’Brien trained filly will appreciate the return to good ground after a poor run on soft ground at Deauville last time. Must be respected given connections and for the fitting of the first time blinkers.
Zarinsk is a three time winner at Leopardstown including a Group 2 success over 7f here last time. Respected at a venue that suits but stall 11 isn’t ideal for a front runner.
Matron Stakes Verdict: I think Tahiyra has an even bigger performance in her and is the most likely winner. However, of stablemate Homeless Songs was back to last season’s she wouldn’t be far away and she can go well fresh.
3:20 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Eight are set to line-up for the race of the weekend. Just 3lb separates the top six on RPR’s which underlines how competitive this renewal is.
We have the Epsom Derby first and second in Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel. The first named followed up in the Irish Derby but was a flop in the King George at Ascot last time. Should get the race run to suit with his stablemates Luxembourg & Point Lonsdale in the line-up. If he’s back to his best he’s got big claims and we know trainer Aidan O’Brien can bring them back.
King Of Steel followed up his Epsom Derby performance by winning a Group 2 at Royal Ascot and finishing 3rd of 10 in the King George at Ascot last time. The drop back to 1m 2f should be more in his favour and he should be bang there.
Alflaila has been supplemented for the race. The 4-year-old won a York Group 2 on his seasonal reappearance in July. He looks well worth his place in a Group 1 company for the first time and could make it a winning one.
Dual Group 1 winner Nashwa produced close to a career best when 1 length 2nd of 4 to stablemate Mostahdaf in the International Stakes at York 17 days ago. Big chance if she didn’t have to hard a race at York.
Luxembourg and Onesto were first and second in last year’s race.
Luxembourg was back to winning ways in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in May. He got a good front running ride from Ryan Moore that day and Ryan opts for Auguste Rodin today. Not at his best on two starts since but can’t be totally dismissed.
Onesto has a great chance of going one place better than 12 months ago. The 4-year-old ran a cracker on his belated seasonal reappearance when a 3 ½ length 4th of 11 to Inspiral in the Group 1 Jacques le Marois (1m) over an inadequate trip a Deauville last month.
Irish Champions Day Verdict: Would I be surprised if Auguste Rodin was to bounce back to winning ways? No. That said I can’t trust him as a bet. Although six of these could win. At the prices I’m looking at Alflaila and Onesto.
Betting Advice:
I have plenty of fancies at four meetings today and it’s turned out to be a big betting day.
Haydock
2:25 – Blindedbythelights – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral
3:00 – Sea King – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral
3:35 – Regional – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral and Khaadem – 1pt each way – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)
Ascot
2:35 – Bless Him – 14/1 – 1pt win @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and Hickory – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral.
3:10 – True Legend – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
Kempton
2:10 – Baltimore Boy – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral and Rhythm N Rock – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
Leopardstown
2:45 – Homeless Songs – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral
3:20 – Onesto – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power.
There will be more selections on Sunday from Day 2 of Irish Champions Weekend and possibly some from York to.
Cheers
John