Hi all,
A poor day on Sunday but my excuse is that rain that softened the ground at Musselburgh didn’t suit my four selections. They had been watering to maintain in the days leading up to the meeting and then more rain than forecast fell on Sunday, and they ran the soft ground.
The service ended up in a profit which didn’t seem likely after the first week in April so I’m hoping I can get May off to a better start.
It’s a Bank Holiday in Britain & Ireland on Monday. There’s a good card at the Curragh but the racing this side of the Irish Sea isn’t great although there’s a couple of interesting handicap chases at Kempton for the start of the new jumps season. The rest of Monday’s racing in Britain is dreadful and I haven’t even looked at any of the races.
In today’s main piece I have previewed the four pattern races at the Curragh and have selections from a couple of those races as well as two of the handicaps on the Curragh card.
Curragh
1:50 – GAIN First Flier Stakes (Listed) – 5f
His Majesty would be an apt winner in Coronation week. The Aidan O’Brien trained son of No Nay Never is thrown in the deep end for his racecourse debut against a couple of colts Bucanero Fuerte and Noche Magica who looked useful prospects when winning last time.
2:25 – Coolmore Stud Blackbeard Irish EBF Tetrarch Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m
Paddington improved to win the valuable Madrid Handicap at Naas on his seasonal return last month. The colt looks capable of further improvement and looks well worth his place in pattern company. Bold Discovery made an encouraging return to action when runner-up to Hans Anderson in a Group 3 here (7f) here 29-days ago. The step up to mile can bring elicit more improvement and he should provide some good opposition to the likely favourite. However, the biggest rival to Paddington may turn out to be stablemate Drumroll who made a winning racecourse debut in a mile maiden at Navan last month.
3:35 – Coolmore Stud Circus Maximus Irish EBF Athasi Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Queen Aminatu a winner on All-Weather Finals Day (7f) will be tough to beat despite being 0-5 on turf and not certain to get the strong pace she likes. Just Beautiful a Group 3 winner when trained by Ivan Furtado in 2021, has just had two starts since joining Paddy Twomey last season. If bouncing back to her 2021 she would be a contender, but better ground may suit her better. Star Girls Aalmal was unlucky in the run when a 3 ¼ lengths 4th of 10 to Insinuendo in the Group 3 Park Express Stakes here (1m) last month. She’s one to seriously consider on ground that suits.
4:10 – Coolmore Stud Sottsass Irish EBF Mooresbridge Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2f
The race of the day and Irish Champion Stakes winner Luxemburg will be tough to beat even under a 3lb penalty on his seasonal return. However, its not a one horse race.
Above The Curve won the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary last May and improved again when winning the Goup 2 Blandford Stakes over C&D on Irish Champions Weekend and when finishing a ¾ length 3rd of n the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp. Capable of better this season and is 2-2 when returning from a 100+day layoff.
Insinuendo won a Group 3 on her seasonal return and there was only neck between her and Above The Curve in the Blandford Stakes last season. The hood returns and with race fitness on her side will make Luxemburg work for the win.
Visualisation has returned to action in good form and posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1½ length 2nd of 5 to Point Lonsdale in the Group 3 Alleged Stakes over C&D 15-days ago. He’s well suited to testing ground and is likely to get his own way out in front here.
Trevaunance won first time up last season and improved last season winning a Group 2 at Deauville last August. Looks held by Above The Curve on their running in the Prix de l’Opera and may be seen to better effect over 1m 4f this season.
Piz Badile looked a Derby contender when winning Group 3 Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal reappearance last season. He failed to give his running at Epsom (9/1) but was a respectable enough runner-up to Westover in the Irish Derby. First run since July but goes well fresh and is from a family who do better with age. Better ground would suit the colt.
Layfayette won this last year, but this looks like a much stronger renewal.
3:00 – Queen Maedbh, Snowcapped and Net A Porter Queen are all open to further improvement but I’m going with Queenie St Clair who shaped with promise at Cork on her seasonal reappearance and wasn’t disgraced when a ¾ length 3rd of 8 at Naas dropped back to 6f at Naas last Monday. The first time cheekpieces go on here and provided the ground is still soft she can win.
5:20 – Twenty six runners for some Curragh equine bingo. Midnight Fire took advantage of some leniency from the handicapper to win over C&D 15-days ago. The 6-year-old won this race last yer and despite a rise of 8lb for winning last time is on the same mark as 12 months ago.
The two I like most are a couple of previous C&D winners in Nordic Passage and Pretty Boy Floyd. Nordic Passage is on a 19 long losing run but is a previous C&D winner and the 8-year-old’s two best performances on RPR’s last year both came over C&D, one coming on seasonal reappearance. A reproduction of either of those performances makes him look well handicapped off a mark of 75. The case for C&D winner Pretty Boy Floyd is a bit harder to make given the 8-year-old has been out of form since he finished a 2 ¼ length 4th of 22 over C&D last April. His best form has come at the course and he’s now 25lb lower than 12 months ago. Not seriously competitive on three starts this season but the handicapper has clearly given him a chance if he ever bounces back to form.
Betting Advice:
Curragh
3:00 – Queenie St Clair – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Star Girls Aalmal – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – Insinuendo – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:20 – Nordic Passage – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Pretty Boy Floyd – 0.5pts each way – 66/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places).
Cheers
John