Hi all,
Inside today’s preview I look the best of the day’s action at Ayr and Newbury. I have selections from both meetings and today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the of the main piece.
Its Ladies Day on day two of Ayr’s Gold Cup meeting. The feature races are the two Listed contests. Up first is the Harry Rosebery Stakes (2:35) and then it’s the Arran Scottish Sprint Fillies’ Stakes (3.10). The former for 2-year-old’s and has been won by Quiet Reflection and Winter Power in recent seasons. The Virgin Bet Ayr Bronze Cup (3:40) is the first of the Gold Cup consolation races and will be the highlight of the eight-race card for many punters.
It’s the first of two days racing at Newbury with the Listed Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (4.03) the feature race. There are also some interesting juvenile contests on the card including the Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes (3:28). A disappointing field of just four but they do include the exciting Godolphin colt Highbank. In its earliest years the race was won by the likes of Henbit, Shergar and Rainbow Quest.
Ayr
Another eight-race card at Ayr this afternoon.
Channon filly to score in nursery
I’m hoping the opening 7f nursery (1:25) can go the way of the Mick Channon trained filly Caernarfon. Runner-up on her last two starts she’s on a workable mark for her handicap debut and the yard is 6 winners from 40 runners 15% +24.75 with its runners at the Western meeting since 2008. There’s been a bit of money for her in the early betting which is looks a positive signal.
Harry Rosebery Stakes
It may pay to concentrate on the likely front two in the market Bolt Action and Kerindia. The former has gone close in Listed races at York & Ripon on his last two starts and sets the standard. Not far behind on form is Kerindia. The filly posted a personal best when a 2 lengths 3rd of 10 to Lady Hollywood in a Longchamp Group 3 earlier in the month. She needs to take another step forward to win this but there’s a decent chance she will.
Arran Scottish Sprint
This Listed race is run over an intermediate 5 ½ f. Gale Force Maya is the highest rated of the 18 fillies & mares. The game mare has had a tremendous season and looked as good as ever when gaining a breakthrough win at Listed level at York earlier this month. A worthy favourite who will appreciate the drying conditions.
Mo Celita is working away into form, but I think she would prefer even more ease in the ground. A bigger rival to Gale Force Maya could be the Richard Fahey trained Barbanera. The 3-year-old has looked useful when a 4th of 12 in the Fred Darling Stakes on her seasonal reappearance and posted a career best on RPR’s when a 2 ½ lengths 5th of 13 to Tis Marvellous in the Beverley Bullet last time. Today’s extra furlong will suit as will racing against her own sex.
My Eyes Adore You put in a much-improved performance when a 1 length 4th of 10 in a Group 3 at Naas last month. If she can back that effort up, then she would be a big threat to the favourite.
Pink Crystal has plenty to find on official ratings with Gale Force Maya but she’s an improving 3-year-old who has been running well in sprint handicaps and was unlucky in the run when a 1¼ lengths 5th of 13 at York 12-days ago. Going the right way and I could see her getting into the money.
Virgin Bet Ayr Bronze Cup
Music Society won this in 2019 and just failed to get up when a short head 2nd of 11 at Thirsk three weeks ago. Yard had a winner here on Thursday and the 7-year-old as solid claims apart from coming out of stall 1.
Grantley Hall comes into the race in good form having made nearly all to win at Beverley (5f) last month. A winner of a maiden at Redcar over 6f early in the season the return to today’s distance shouldn’t inconvenience her. She should help tow her stablemate Le Beau Garcon into the race. Le Beau Garcon looked a sure-fire handicap winner in waiting when an unlucky runner-up at Musselburgh in June. Hasn’t quite lived up to expectations on three subsequent starts but you can put a line through his run when last of ten at Chester last time as he was badly hampered at the start.
Admirality is more than capable of a big run off his present mark. The 8-year-old doesn’t win very often but was a useful 1 ¾ length 3rd of 10 at Thirsk last time and should be suited by step back up to 6f.
Vince Lombardi got off the mark for the first time for his current yard when dropped back to 6f at Carlisle two starts back. Got no cover when beaten favourite at Newcastle just six days later. Maybe best to forgive that run as 6f on decent ground looks ideal for the 3-year-old and he should get plenty of cover here.
Newbury
Sacred won’t have a better chance this season to add a fourth career win in the Listed Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (4:03). However, it’s not a race that I want into look into more deeply
The final two races on the Newbury card are handicaps but are more interesting for me than the feature race.
No excuses for Mahrajaan
Top-weight Mahrajaan is a consistent handicapper and Newbury will suit him better than York. He was doing his best work at the finish when 1 ½ length 3rd of 16 at York last time. This is slightly easier than the races he’s been running in of late.
Moktasaab won here on seasonal reappearance (1m 2f) and then followed up at Goodwood two weeks later. Finished 3 places and 3 ½ lengths behind Mahrajaan at York last time. Likely still on a workable mark but mixed messages as to whether he wants 1m 4f but easier ground will help.
Wandering Rocks got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a Doncaster novice two starts back. Wasn’t ideally positioned when a 3 ½ lengths third of 6 at Kempton on handicap debut last month. Today’s extra furlong and a better overall gallop should see the 3-year-old in a better light and he’s capable of better than he’s shown so far.
Secret Box is capable of better
Kattani was an excellent 2nd of 10 in this race last year before going onto win at Nottingham the following month. Big run expected but he face some potentially progressive rivals and drying ground might not be in his favour.
Vee Sight was an eyecatcher when not handling the Goodwood undulations two starts back. Much better last time when a 4 ¼ length 3rd of 15 to Protagonist at Sandown last time. Stays 1m 2f well and the likely strong pace will suit the 3-year-old.
Secret Box was three lengths behind Vee Sight at Sandown last time. However, that was the 4-year-old’s first start for 14 months and he should be fitter for that run. He’s a big strong gelding who’s lightly race and has the scope to rate higher than a mark of 81.
Perseus Way put in career best when 3 ½ length 2nd of 4 here over 1m 4f last time. He’s been dropped 1lb since and looks on a workable mark for an inform trainer.
Mustazeed ended last season with a soft ground handicap success at Doncaster. He was raised 5lb for that win which was fair, and he can win again. However, this will be the 4-year-old’s belated seasonal reappearance and he may need the outing today.
Betting Advice:
Ayr
1:25 – 1pt win – Caernarfon – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
3:10 – 1pt win – Pink Crystal – 12/1 @ Bet365
3:45 – 1pt win – Music Society – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Grantley Hall – 10/1 @ Bet365
Newbury
4:35 – 1pt win – Wandering Rocks – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:05 – 1pt win – Secret Box – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Perseus Way – 15/2 @ Bet365.
Cheers
John