Hi all,
Flat racing returns to Ascot for the first time this season. The Group 3 Longines Sagaro Stakes (3.15) is the feature race of seven race card which includes three other races which are styled as trials for Royal Ascot. The best of those looks to be a competitive looking Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial Stakes (3:50).
Inside today’s main piece I preview the three Ascot pattern races and I have selections in both handicaps on the card.
Ascot
3:15 – Longines Sagaro Stakes (Group 3) (A Gold Cup Trial) – 2m
Sixhave been declared for today’s feature race. Course & distance winner Trueshan has been installed as the bookies early bird favourite. Ease in the ground suits the 7-year-old but he was unable to get past the front running Rajinsky at Nottingham on his seasonal reappearance. Trueshan is 2lb better off at the weights today. Ok Tueshan is 3-3 over C&D and may have needed the run more last time, but Rajinsky seems likely to get his way out in front once more. Coltrane was an improving stayer last season but maybe needs good ground and doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run. El Habeeb won a handicap here (1m 6f) last September. The 4-year-old was a solid 6 ¾ length 5th of 15 to Broome in the Dubai Gold Cup (2m) at Meydan 39-days ago. Needs to settle better than he did at Meydan but he’s unexposed over 2m.
3:50 – British Racing School 40th Anniversary Commonwealth Cup Trial Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
A competitive field with just 4lb separating the top four on Official Ratings (OR’s).
Bradsell a winner on his racecourse debut improved again to win the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He suffered a season ending injury when only 4th of 5 to Little Big Bear in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last time. The one to beat on his Coventry Stakes performance.
Mischief Magic ended last season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5 ½ f) at Keeneland. He must give 4lb to all his rivals here and might need quicker ground.
Trillium won the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood and followed up in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster (good to soft). Not at her best when 8th of 10 in the Cheveley Park Stakes on her final start but may not have liked the track that day. Looked a serious Commonwealth Cup contender last season and easily bounce back.
Marbaan looked a useful juvenile when winning the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at the Qatar Goodwood Festival last summer. Struggled in Group 1’ s on his final two starts and needs to bounce back dropped back to 6f here.
Cold Case an improved third in the Gimcrack, ended last season with wins in a valuable sales race at Doncaster before following up in the Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar. Ease in the ground suits and if he’s improved from two to three can win this.
Desert Cop from a sprinting family, made it 2-2 since being returned to 6f in the 3-year-old sprint on All-Weather Finals Day. He’s yet to run on turf but there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be effective on the grass and looks set for a good season.
4:25 – Howden Bloodstock Paradise Stakes (A Queen Anne Stakes Trial) (Listed Race) – 1m
Cash had looked a nice prospect when a short head 2nd of 6 to Westover in Sandown’s Classic Trial (1m 2f) last April. Only ran once more last year when a short priced beaten favourite at Kempton in November. Capable of more progress this season but 1m looks on the short side today.
The highly progressive My Prospero a neck 3rd of 11 to Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes ended last season with an improved ½ length 3rd of 9 to Bay Bridge in the Group 1 Champion Stakes here (1m 2f) in October. Looks the sort to improve further as a 4-year-old. The drop back to a mile is a slight concern but he’s dropped in class here and has got 7lb in hand of his rivals on OR’s. He should make a winning return to action before going onto better things later this season.
Betting Advice:
1:30 – Yaanaas made it 2-2 when winning at Kempton21-days ago. The 4-year-old only made his racecourse debut in March. Makes his handicap/turf debut but looks on a good mark if as effective on turf as the synthetics. Plenty short enough in the betting and worth taking on albeit he’s the most likely winner.
Global Esteem, Raising Sand and Keyser Soze are all previous C&D winners in with a chance. Raising Sand likes some ease in the ground so drying ground on the straight course is a concern. We haven’t seen Keyser Soze on turf since the summer of 2021, but he did win this in 2021 and won at Kempton in January. He needs a strong pace to chase which he should get here but stall 1 isn’t ideal.
Two Tempting is a consistent handicapper and he returned from an 8 month layoff with a solid 1 ½ length 2nd of 10 at Kempton 16-days ago. He’s yet to win on turf but ran well over C&D last season so is in with a chance.
Chasing Aphrodite won his first two starts last season but didn’t really kick on three subsequent starts. He returns from 5 months break and has had wind surgery since his last run at the end of November. Probably on a workable mark back down to a mile and his yard is 4-11 in the past 14-days.
5:00 – Spoof won at Windsor (heavy) 9-days and looks well in under a 4lb penalty. Look capable of following up.
Beyond Equal has dropped down the handicap but isn’t the easiest to win with. Osin Murphy looks a good booking though and he should go close.
Fantasy Master ran like the run was needed when 7th of 15 at Newbury 12-days ago. Yet to win away from Nottingham but one of his RPR’s came when ¾ length 3rd of 19 in a Royal Ascot handicap in 2021, off 3lb higher.
Isle Of Lismore won twice over 5f last season and was another who looked in need of his seasonal return at Newmarket 15-days ago. I don’t think Newmarket suited him last time and this track should suit him better.
Rambuso Creek went close twice over 5f at Pontefract last season off around this sort of mark. Likely to be sharper for his Beverley seasonal reappearance two weeks ago. Gets the first time cheekpieces today and if they have the desired effect he will be there or thereabouts.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
1:30 – Chasing Aphrodite – 1pt win –10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:15 – El Habeeb – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
5:00 – Rambuso Creek – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John