Hi all,
The first of two days of racing at Ascot gets underway with seven race card that contains some decent looking handicaps.
Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of the action from the Ascot card. As ever today’s selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the preview.
Weather Watch
It’s going to be important to keep an eye on the weather over the next few days in particular Haydock.
The recent rain has eased the ground too good to soft at Ascot. There doesn’t look much more rain from Thursday evening onwards although I would still expect the ground to be closer to soft than good.
It’s officially good to soft, soft in places at Haydock. The going stick suggests it’s already soft. However, if the forecasters are correct there could be another 10mm at the track on Friday. If those levels of rainfall do arrive the ground is likely to be much softer come Saturday.
Ascot
Venetia Williams is struggling for winners this autumn 0-23 in the past 14-days. However, her record with handicap chasers at Ascot in November & December is a healthy – 6 winners from 21 runners 29% +12.75. She has a couple of runners here this afternoon: Espoir De Guye (2:05) and Kapga De Lily (2:40).
The Royal Ascot Racing Club Handicap Chase (2:05)
This Class 2 contest attracted the biggest line-up with thirteen declared for this Class 2 contest. Venetia Williams has won this race three times since 2015 including the last two renewals
Espoir De Guye won this in 2020 and the softer the ground the better for the 8-year-old who’s form figures when returning from a 121 to 365-day break are 211. He’s got top weight to carry here but is just 2lb above his last winning mark.
Both Revels Hill and Flegmatik will win races this season. The former needs 3m+. Whilst the latter has a decent record fresh and his suited to going right handed, he might not want the ground too soft.
Do Your Job developed into smart novice chaser last season winning three of his seven starts. Usually a solid jumper of a fence. He was still going well when making a bad mistake four out in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on seasonal return. Likely remains on a competitive mark and to early to dismiss.
Nicky Henderson is another trainer to note here in November/December. He saddles a couple of contenders in Janika & Bothwell Bridge. The first named has the back class to be involved and he ran better than his 24 ¼ length 7th of 29 in Topham Chase at Aintree in April suggests. The first time blinkers he wore that day are replaced by the first time cheekpieces and he can get involved from a career low mark. Bothwell Bridge is less exposed than his stablemate, just the four starts over fences. The 7-year-old didn’t build on his chase debut success at Sandown last December, but he is 3-3 when returning from a 90+day absence and fresh could be time to catch him.
Foxboro was rewarded for some consistent efforts over fences when getting off the mark at the 10th attempt at Sandown in March. Up 4lb but very much in the mix for a trainer who is 3-7, 4 placed with his handicap chasers at Ascot in November/December.
Not Forgotten Handicap Chase (2:40)
Kapga De Lily won this on her seasonal return 12 months ago’ However, she is 10lb higher this time around and this year’s renewal looks a deeper contest,
There are four more C&D among the ten runners. Copperhead, Cat Tiger, Regal Encore and Larry.
Copperhead has struggled for form since winning the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase in February 2020. Just the one start last season, but he’s tumbled down the weights to a good mark when he does rediscover his old form.
Cat Tiger won a similar race here in January, from 3lb lower, and then went close in the Foxhunters at Aintree.
Regal Encore has reserved some of his best performances for this track. And he probably needed the run when 11th of 13 over C&D last month. This is a bit of a drop in class for him but he is a 14-year-old and maybe age has finally caught up with him.
Larry doesn’t always impress with his jumping, but he got it right when winning over C&D last October. Can race off the same mark here and if they go hard enough up front, he could pick up the pieces.
Trainer Kim Bailey is 2 winners from 6 runners 4 placed with his handicap chasers at Ascot in Nov/Dec. He saddles two here: Bobhopeornohope and the unreliable El Presente. You can never totally rule out the latter who ran well for a long way last time, but I will concentrate on the former. The 7-year-old Bobhopeornohope is 2-6 over fences and is well suited to soft ground. Although the top-weight is 5lb higher than when beaten a short head at Ludlow in March. He’s got a likeable attitude, he’s still unexposed over 3m and has to be high on the shortlist.
Garden For All Seasons Handicap Hurdle (3:15)
Most of the nine runners have a chance here. Inform Nicky Henderson has won this race for the past two years, so you must respect the claims of Gipsy De Choisel.
Onemorefortheroad is tough and consistent, has race fitness on his side and is respected dropped back to 2m.
There should be more to come from Monviel in his second season hurdling. He’s on a workable mark and will like the ease in the ground.
Irish challenger Shanroe is a useful staying handicapper on the flat and he was a smart handicap hurdler when last seen over timber two seasons back. He’s another to consider in what looks like an open looking handicap.
In The Paddock Ownership Day Series Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (3:50)
Betterforeveryone seemed to relish the step up to 2m 7f when winning on handicap hurdle debut at Bangor 24-days ago. A 4lb rise doesn’t seem to harsh and he’s open to further improvement at the distance.
The Questioner has finished runner-up on his last two starts. He was beaten a head at Ayr last time and has been nudged up 3lb and is in a better race here but given his present vein of form can’t be discounted.
Buttsbury Lady has looked moderate over shorter distances but the step up to 3m could bring about more improvement in the 7-year-old and she hails from the very much inform Nicky Henderson stable.
Halifax is a ten race maiden over hurdles, but he’s run well enough to suggest he can win a race in the sphere. This is the 5-year-old’s first start beyond 2m 4f but if his stamina holds, he should be on the premises.
The most fascinating runner is General Probus, is having first start for 725-days and his first run for new trainer Keiran Burke. The yard is 2-5 in the past 14-days and if the betting speaks in the 8-year-old’s that should be noted.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
2:05 – Bothwell Bridge – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral and 1pt win – Espoir De Guye – 15/2 @ Bet365
2:40 – Bobhopeornohope – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Kapga De Lily – 11/2 @ Bet365
3:15 – Monviel – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 and Shanroe -1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365
3:50 – General Probus – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John