Hi all,
A better day on Saturday with two nice priced winners. It’s Arc Day at Longchamp and the 100th running of Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. The world best horse race attracted a high-class field. The best middle-distance horses in Europe are set to run including two Derby winners. Add in two top class Japanese contenders and you can see why the race looks worthy of all the hype. The rain has arrived in Paris and is likely to be very soft on the day and could be heavy if more rain does arrive before post time.
You can watch four races from Longchamp on ITV. I’m keeping my stakes low today and have couple big priced selections in the Arc and a couple of other races on the card.
Longchamp
The draw can be important in the Arc and the race provides more than its fair share of hard luck stories. I’m not expecting anything different this time around. It looks a race to savour that’s for sure.
3:05 – Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – 1m 4f
Adayar is the best horse on ratings and should be the clear favourite. The Derby/King George winner comes into the race a relatively fresh horse as this will only be his fifth start of the season. He had a setback which meant he missed his prep race which is a slight concern. Stablemate Hurricane Lane is triple Group 1 winner – Irish Derby, Grand Prix De Paris (C&D) and St Leger. Any ease in the ground will suit but I think he had a hard race at Doncaster.
Tarnawa is joint favourite with Adayar. The 5-year-old has been trained for the race and will be spot on for this after ¾ length second to St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes last month. Return to 1m 4f is a big plus. Needs a career best to land this but she’s likely capable of it.
Snowfall, Oaks, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks heroine blotted her copy book when beaten in the Prix Vermeille. The slow pace was said not to have suited her that day. However, the Aidan O’Brien was under a bit of a cloud at the time so I wouldn’t be surprised to see her bounce back on Sunday.
There seems to be plenty of confidence behind Osin Murphy’s mount Chrono Genesis. The mare is a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan and ran Mishriff to a neck in the Sheema Classic at Meydan on World Cup night. May be better on a quicker surface but she has won on soft in the past.
Deep Bond made all to win the Prix Foy over C&D last time. That performance stamped him as a high-class colt. However, he’s yet to race on going worse than yielding. If soft ground isn’t an inconvenience he could get in to the places at big odds.
Torquator Tasso, twice a Group 1 winner in Germany has a bit to find on ratings and was beaten by Alpinista two starts back. The soft ground has come at the right time for the colt. A strongly run 1m 4f should suit the colt and he’s another who get into the frame.
Raabihah finished 5th in last year’s Arc and returned to winning ways when successful in a Group 2 at Deauville in August. There were doubts about her participation but it now looks likely she will come here rather than go for another race on Arc Weekend. Another with place claims and if there is a home winner of the race it will be her.
Alenquer, trained by William Haggas, will take his place. The 3-year-old has some decent form that makes him a contender. He was doing his best work at the finish when 6 length 2nd to Mishriff in the International Stakes at York last time. Prior to that he finished 7 lengths behind Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris. Albeit he was poorly placed and set too much to do after an awkward start in that race. This is his trip; he goes well with cut in the ground and is another lively outsider.
Verdict: Adayar won on soft ground as juvenile so I think he will be fine on the ground. His training setback which meant he missed his prep race is a slight concern but I think he’s the most likely winner. At bigger odds both Raabihah and the German horse Torquator Tasso could repay each way support despite their high draws.
0.5pts each way – Raabihah – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Torquator Tasso – 100/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
1:15 – Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) – 1m
Acer Alley won a Group 3 here over 7f last month and showed she handled heavy ground when winning at Saint-Cloud in the summer. This is much better race than she’s run in but is open to more progress and can maybe surprise some better fancied rivals.
0.5pts win – Acer Alley – 12/1 @ Bet365
5:00 – Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) – 7f
Kinross likes some juice in the ground and seems to be at his best after a break between his races. He wasn’t seen at his best when only 5th in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest. Has plenty in his favour and looks set to go close.
Sagamiyra is also suited by cut in the ground she ran Mother Earth to head in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville two starts back and then comfortably won a Group 3 over C&D three weeks ago.
Njord looks held by Kinross on their running at Haydock in May. However, he does go very well on soft/heavy ground and if he gets a strongly run race can get into the places.
1pt win – Kinross – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
0.5pts win – Njord – 16/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John